Hillary vs. Romney predictions

[Reaganfan]

I believe that the 50-50, red state blue state polarization will continue if Hillary is the Democratic Nominee no matter now conservative a candidate the GOP puts up. If it's McCain or Giuliani...different story.

Romney: 296
Clinton: 242

[Reaganfan]

 I'm just specutlating here, but what are the chances that McCain and Guliani split the moderate vote in the primaries, giving someone like Romney the chance to slip though. In Iowa and New Hampshire, are results like this really so crazy: Romney 30, McCain 25, Guliani 25, others 20?

 I am probably off base here for a number of reasons. Just thinking out loud.

 I would also imagine that in the general Hillary will leave a number of people on the left disatisfied and Romney the same on the right. Maybe we'd see 2-3% going to write ins and minor candidates.

Well, I think that...and know in some cases...that many conservatives are flocking to McCain.

[Reaganfan]

Here's my map:

Hillary-310
Romney-228
In the West the Mormon vote bumps Romney in Utah and Idaho and clinches Nevada for him.  Colorado and New Mexico continue their leftward trends.  Hillary edges out some victories in the peripheral south but the Katrina exodus causes her to loose Louisiana.  Florida is trending GOP.  In the Midwest, Hillary manages to hold on in Wisonsin and takes Ohio and Iowa.  Hillary gets a home state bump in New York.  Virginia is close but goes to Romney, probably goes Democrat in 2012.

Disagree. If John Kerry and John Edwards couldn't win Arkansas, Iowa and Missouri...how the hell will HILLARY CLINTON?