Gerald Ford v. Jimmy Carter

[tarheel-leftist85]

Carter, the "extremist," of course...maybe Ford can trip over driveway curbs and eat nachos and drink beer and watch football w/ Homer Simpson (I hope y'all have seen that episode!).

[tarheel-leftist85]

In regards to my maps, I think an electoral realignment is inevitable...maybe a bit too optimistic on my part as soon as 2008, but it's going to happen nonetheless. 

According to the Census, Michigan is doing terribly in the population department:  Massive amounts of Michiganders are moving primarily to the Peripheral South.  Who wants to bet that most of those people fleeing aren't African-Americans from Detroit moving away from the state with the highest Klan membership to more hospitable places (like Charlotte, Raleigh, Dallas, and Florida excepting the Klanhandle). 

Though Jeb Bush is like every other Republican, he certainly had to effect himself as a micro-managing populist like Huckabee or "Democrat" Warner in order to win.  Also, I would've said Florida would swing more to Republicans when the Southwestern part of the Peninsula was booming with sky-high real-estate, but that's coming to a close, and most of the growth will stem from the shrinking middle class and retirees who haven't lost their pensions yet (both middle and upper class seniors, I suppose, though many upper class seniors who be more inclined to think like citizens than Ayn Rand). 

Carter would definitely lose Georgia, as it use to reflect a working-class heritage as evidenced by their support of Truman (where every other Deep South state voted for Strom), and although large numbers of Northern blacks are moving to said state, they--for one reason or another, like most Deep South states--don't factor into election results (I think blacks composed roughly 16% of the electorate in 2006, when they compose 29.5% of the state's population--interesting...).  Georgia votes according to the wishes of Long Islanders and Californians moving the snow-white suburbs of Atlanta and the Klansmen elsewhere. 

If Jennings somehow gets that seat in the 110th or 111th Congress, every Peripheral South state will have at least a 40% Dem. delegation.  BTW, wasn't Ford from Michigan?  Pretty soon all that's gonna be left in that state is a snow-white suburbia surrounding a hollow urban core. 

The Great Plains (Oklahoma's going to be difficult, but a strong Constitution party movement may split the Republican vote) may also become more promising.  3/5 of the Great Plains have at least a 50% Dem. Caucus, and Nebraska's three Rep. representatives were held under 60% (I think Kleeb and the Omaha district will go Dem. pretty soon, but the suburb dist. will stay Rep. til eternity). 

The thing about such a realignment, however, is that it won't begin with party switching or from the bottom up.  When Reagan became president, most Southerners still identified themselves as Democrats (and I think a majority in the Deep South).  What you see is popular support for a president, followed by partisan realignment and reversal of party control for lower and state-level offices.  California was consistently, though narrowly, Republican before and during Reagan.  Not so anymore.  These regional realignments may also happen during different elections--perhaps the Peripheral South will realign before the Great Plains or vice versa.  But, as much as both parties like to think they're coalitions will hold and the maps will look similar to 2000 and 2004, it isn't going to hold. 

And I love how the liberal/conservative criterion is abortion...classic!  Let's continue to solve the world's material problems through religion or a psuedo-rebellious lack thereof (like a Christian book that just came out promising riches and better sex) and immaterial (in every sense of the word) problems through politics.  It's worked so well since 1968. 

Maybe California will stay Democratic (with high minority populations), but the whites are going to trend Republican, and I think we can look forward to surprisingly low turnouts for minorities in these western states--for one reason or another.  Washington and Oregon will probably go undergo a Rep. realignment so long as you have Republicans who take the "moderate approach" and flip-flop on their support for wars and abortions depending upon their political feasibility.

But, as everyone else seems to think, 2008 will be like 2000 and 2004--except for Colorado and Arizona which will break 60+% for the Democrat!  LOL