RFK vs. Nixon, 1968

[Hash]

What if Bob Kennedy had not been shot in Los Angeles and been able to run against Nixon. Would he have won? Could anybody make a map of how it'd be like?

[Hammy]

maybe something like this?

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

maybe something like this?

Curious, why do you think he'd win North Dakota?

[johnpressman]

I have expressed this in a similar thread, but nevertheless:

1. In my opinion, RFk would NOT have won the 1968 Democratic Presidential Nomination if he had lived.  There were many fewer primairies that year and Humphrey had the nomination sewed up through LBJ's support among the party's rank and file.

2. Should RFK had won the nomination in a three-way fight between him, Humphrey and McCarthy, he would have torn the Democratic Party to shreds. The sitting President, the Dem rank and file AND the McCarthyites hated RFK and would have sat on their hands, waiting to fight over the party's corpse come November. 

3. In a three-way race agianst Nixon and Wallace, RFK would have been slaughtered.  America was a MUCH more conservative place in 1968 and NIxon and Wallace's law and order message was just what the country wanted in that turbulent year.  56% of the electorate voted AGAINST RFK's
message of support for minorities and the poor.

I don't know how to post maps but RFK would have lost Texas, possibly picked up Illinois but his vote totals in the Southern states would have dropped greatly, possibly enabling Wallace to pick up close three-way states such as Tennesee.

No contest, can you actually see Nixon or Wallace voters switching to Bobby
while he is able  to hold on to all of Humphrey's old style labor union supporters?  Come on!

[CPT MikeyMike]

I have expressed this in a similar thread, but nevertheless:

1. In my opinion, RFk would NOT have won the 1968 Democratic Presidential Nomination if he had lived.  There were many fewer primairies that year and Humphrey had the nomination sewed up through LBJ's support among the party's rank and file.

2. Should RFK had won the nomination in a three-way fight between him, Humphrey and McCarthy, he would have torn the Democratic Party to shreds. The sitting President, the Dem rank and file AND the McCarthyites hated RFK and would have sat on their hands, waiting to fight over the party's corpse come November. 

3. In a three-way race agianst Nixon and Wallace, RFK would have been slaughtered.  America was a MUCH more conservative place in 1968 and NIxon and Wallace's law and order message was just what the country wanted in that turbulent year.  56% of the electorate voted AGAINST RFK's
message of support for minorities and the poor.

I don't know how to post maps but RFK would have lost Texas, possibly picked up Illinois but his vote totals in the Southern states would have dropped greatly, possibly enabling Wallace to pick up close three-way states such as Tennesee.

No contest, can you actually see Nixon or Wallace voters switching to Bobby
while he is able  to hold on to all of Humphrey's old style labor union supporters?  Come on!

John - Very interesting however, I wonder if RFK would have done something, as the nominee, to draw Humphrey and McCarthy to support him because for sure they hated Nixon.  I also wonder if Wallace might have gotten more votes from blue collar Dems to take the election to the House.

In the end though, I think Bobby beats Nixon simply because of the Kennedy name.  It may sound foolish but I'm convinced Bobby would get Ohio, Illinois and New Jersey.

[johnpressman]

Capt. Mike, I admire your honesty regards the Kennedy name.  However, given the political climate in 1968 and the absolute HATRED that LBJ and the McCarthyites had for RFK, I doubt that he could have pulled these two groups into his corner.

As aforementioned, LBJ hated Bobby and the McCarthyites called him a coward for refusing Allard Lowenstein's offer to lead an anti-war candidacy against Johnson that McCarthy accepted.  After McCarthy's strong showing in New Hampshire, RFK jumped into the primarys AGAINST MCCARTHY!  Humphrey did not enter the primaries in 1968.


Should somehow RFK win the nomination, I believe he would be leading an independant  campaign without the help of the rank and file Democratic Party, similar to McGovern's effort in 1972.  Remember, LBJ was a sitting President with a longtime control over the party's machinery and, once again, he HATED Bobby!  I believe McCarthy's supporters would eventually join Bobby due to his anti-war position, but the country would reject his liberal message BIG TIME in 1968.

By 1968 the liberal policies of the Democratic administration and the Warren Court, coupled with race riots, school busing to achieve racial integration and the rising crime rate created a law and order backlash that 56% (Nixon and Wallace) supported in November.  Bobby would have possibly gained Illinois, definately lost Texas, and probably caused Tennesee to vote for Wallace.  I do not believe that he would have  won New Jersey or Ohio and might have lost Pennsylvania to Nixon as his pro-minority message did not go over with organized labor which was stong for Humphrey.

The biggest difference between a Humphrey candidacy and an RFK run in 1968 would have been Kennedy's poor showing in the South, making the electoral vote total similar to Humphrey's but maximizing Nixon's popular vote  margin and increasing Wallace's percentage.

If RFK had lived, he would NOT have won the nomination in 1968.  He WOULD have won the 1972 nomination but lost to Nixon in a closer race that McGovern  ran.  1976?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

McCarthy was running on Kennedy's message, and by the time of the convention it didn't matter what McCarthy did (but it would end his career in politics if he didn't endorse RFK), Humphrey wanted to be President and hated Nixon, he would have known that if he got Nixon elected (which he never would've done) he would end any chance he had left of being President).  Lastly, compare Robert Kennedy to Richard Nixon in youth, likablity and chrisma, top that off with the fact that Kennedy opposed Vietnam at the RIGHT time and Nixon was done (though it would of been close on election day in all liklyhood)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Humphrey didn't like Johnson, he just saw being Vice President as his best shot at being President.

[johnpressman]

Governor, I didn't say that McCarthy or Humphrey would not have endorsed RFK, if, through some unlikely scenario he would have won the nomination.  I was saying that many of McCarthy's supporters disliked Bobby for chickening out and letting McCarthy challenge LBJ for the nomination.  When Bobby changed his mind and announced after  McCarthy's strong showing in  New Hampshire, he was running against MCCARTHY in the primaries!!!

While RFK stated he was running because he believed McCarthy couldn't win, he was dividing the liberal, anti-war camp in the Democratic party.  As for Humphrey, his nomination was at the behest of LBJ who controlled the party machinery.  LBJ HATED Bobby!  As for party loyalty, LBJ believed if he couldn't be re-elected President, his choice would be Nelson Rockefeller!!

To sum it up, should somehow RFK had won the 1968 Democratic Presidential Nomination, he would be leading a deeply divided party against
Nixon and Wallace.  His message of support for the poor and the minorities was exactly the WRONG message for the time.  As for the anti war movement, in 1968 a vast majority of the voting electorate (over 21) supported the war and Nixon's message of "Peace with Honor".  It is only in retrospect that many believe that a candidiate supporting the withdrawal of American troops in Vietnam could have won the Presidency in 1968.

The American public in 1968 was looking for order and stability and a return to a less turbulent time.   RFK's youth, likeability and chrisma notwithstanding, he did poorly in the polls which showed Humphrey as the strongest candidiate to beat Nixon.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Kennedy: 301
Nixon: 165
Wallace: 72

[gorkay]

Bobby would have won handily. Humphrey did not have the nomination sewn up when Kennedy was still alive. Many in the party rank and file, and in the party leadership, were unhappy with the prospect of a Humphrey candidacy because the polls in the summer of '68 showed him losing to Nixon badly. A movement was already underway among some of the party bosses, including Mayor Daley, to swing the nomination to RFK. Of course, the movement died when Kennedy did, and the party was left with virtually no alternative to Humphrey. The bosses didn't trust McCarthy and thought he would be a weak candidate in the general election. If Kennedy had still been around, the movement would still have been alive, and I think it would have succeeded, mainly because Kennedy was so obviously the Dems' strongest candidate. It would have been a hard sell to Humphrey and Johnson, but if they didn't have the votes, there wouldn't have been anything they could do about it. It would have been interesting to see what attitude they would have taken towards Kennedy as their party's nominee.

In 1968, the war was the overriding issue, and it is not true that an overwhelming majority of the voters supported it. The country was deeply divided with an almost infinite gradation of opinion about it-- everything from the extreme hawks who wanted to bomb Vietnam into the Stone Age to to the extreme doves who wanted to pull all the troops out immediately, and all shades in between. Why would Nixon have taken as dovish a position on the war, and how could he have won, if most voters supported our involvement? His position, in fact, wasn't all that different from RFK's (except that Kennedy meant it, while Nixon didn't). So the advantage Nixon had in comparing his war stance to the failures of Johnson and Humphrey would have been negated. And also remember that the American public's love for all things Kennedy was perhaps at its peak in 1968, before Chappaquiddick and before JFK's philandering was widely known.