Alberta (Canada) UCP leadership race

[adma]

https://mobile.twitter.com/davecournoyer/status/1558090017070690304
Not worth making a thread over, but just want to bring to attention that nominations for the Alberta Liberal Party elections are closing in about two hours, and they have got literally no candidates.

I don't get why the Alberta Liberals are still limbering along. They're not going to replace the NDP as the main anti-Conservative option, and they're most certainly not going to replace the UCP as the main anti-NDP option. If the idea is to present a solid centrist third party like the Lib Dems to keep both the UCP and NDP in check, wouldn't they be better off merging with the Alberta Party?

That would mean accepting the Alberta Party is centrist.

But...they are? I mean, "centrist" depends on where you believe the centre to be, but in an Alberta split between UCP and NDP, I would think both the AP and ALP would fit into a broadly centrist category. Granted I don't know much about the minor parties in Alberta, is it the case that Liberals and Alberta party have bad blood?

If they're still lingering, it's to keep the party-label generator running just in case opportunity knocks in the future.

[Njall]

https://mobile.twitter.com/davecournoyer/status/1558090017070690304
Not worth making a thread over, but just want to bring to attention that nominations for the Alberta Liberal Party elections are closing in about two hours, and they have got literally no candidates.

I don't get why the Alberta Liberals are still limbering along. They're not going to replace the NDP as the main anti-Conservative option, and they're most certainly not going to replace the UCP as the main anti-NDP option. If the idea is to present a solid centrist third party like the Lib Dems to keep both the UCP and NDP in check, wouldn't they be better off merging with the Alberta Party?

That would mean accepting the Alberta Party is centrist.

But...they are? I mean, "centrist" depends on where you believe the centre to be, but in an Alberta split between UCP and NDP, I would think both the AP and ALP would fit into a broadly centrist category. Granted I don't know much about the minor parties in Alberta, is it the case that Liberals and Alberta party have bad blood?

The Alberta Party is definitely centrist imo, and the Liberals are pretty close to them, maybe slightly to their left. I wouldn’t say that the Alberta Party has bad blood towards the Liberals, but the Liberals have some towards the Alberta Party as a result of the latter arguably displacing the former from their traditional place on the political spectrum. Of course, those same Liberal stalwarts also had bad blood towards the NDP for replacing them as the go-to progressive option.

[Njall]

In other news Kenney’s decided to weigh into the race by coming out strong against Smith’s signature proposals. Smith’s campaign claims that every time he does this, they get a boost in membership sales.

[MaxQue]

In other news Kenney’s decided to weigh into the race by coming out strong against Smith’s signature proposals. Smith’s campaign claims that every time he does this, they get a boost in membership sales.

He is not wrong through, that her proposal to pass a law to disregard federal legislation and court decisions they don't like would not be allowed by the Lieutenant Governor.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Of course, those same Liberal stalwarts also had bad blood towards the NDP for replacing them as the go-to progressive option.

I've always found it very funny how the reaction of all the Edmonton/Calgary municipal pols who everyone knows are Liberals to NDP operatives trying to organise to get sympathetic candidates elected as councillors was 'hey, that's not fair, we're non-partisan around here!'.

[mileslunn]

At this point, I believe Danielle Smith is heavy favourite, but Jean and Toews have a chance, Rebecca Schulz real long shot.  In general election, I think Notley would likely beat Smith and Jean too but especially Smith.  Toews a toss up, while Schulz would be slight favourite but still close. 

Real problem for UCP is unlike former PCs they tend to attract more nutty types.  PCs were a much bigger tent so usually leader was fairly representative of Alberta while UCP very much appeals to the angry hard right types, sort of like Reform Party did.  Problem is for them Alberta is nowhere near as right wing as stereotype.  Yes more conservative than other provinces, but would still be a blue state if in US.  Notley is also a known factor so like or dislike her, attack ads on her less likely to work than would if NDP leader had never governed.  NDP was smart to keep Notley since if a different leader, UCP could easily focus on few more left wing candidates and try to scare Albertans socialist hordes at the gates.  That is unlikely to work as people know what to expect with a Notley government.

While not certain, I still stand by my prediction Notley wins next year.  But I suspect unlike most elections in Alberta, this will be a competitive one, not a blowout as we are used to.

[Poirot]

This article has the membership by riding. 123,915 people are eligible to vote.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/ucp-membership-riding-breakdown-analysis-1.6561359

[mileslunn]

This article has the membership by riding. 123,915 people are eligible to vote.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/ucp-membership-riding-breakdown-analysis-1.6561359

Good news for Smith as UCP is a one member one vote so even though more Albertans live in two main cities than rest of province, most voting will live in Rural Alberta.  Also bad news in general election as means likely have someone who appeals to Rural Alberta but not two main cities where most live.  Edmonton may be a lost cause, but Calgary is essential if they want to win.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I know I'm probably preaching to the choir here (even most Conservatives I know here in Ontario, most of whom support Poilievre, think Danielle Smith is nuts), but picking Danielle Smith would be such an incomprehensibly bad idea for the UCP. She would make the NDP the voice of stability and moderation. With the economy on the rebound, the UCP has a good shot of winning the next election as the low-tax, pro-energy sector party. Maybe throw in some populist red meat for the base alongside fiscal conservatism, like a commitment to not bring back vaccine mandates, for example. Instead, Danielle Smith would rather make the next election about a poorly-defined "sovereignty act" that would simply throw Alberta into a fight with a federal government, a fight that they simply cannot win.

[MaxQue]

I know I'm probably preaching to the choir here (even most Conservatives I know here in Ontario, most of whom support Poilievre, think Danielle Smith is nuts), but picking Danielle Smith would be such an incomprehensibly bad idea for the UCP. She would make the NDP the voice of stability and moderation. With the economy on the rebound, the UCP has a good shot of winning the next election as the low-tax, pro-energy sector party. Maybe throw in some populist red meat for the base alongside fiscal conservatism, like a commitment to not bring back vaccine mandates, for example. Instead, Danielle Smith would rather make the next election about a poorly-defined "sovereignty act" that would simply throw Alberta into a fight with a federal government, a fight that they simply cannot win.

Maybe not even with the federal government, but with the Lieutenant Governor.

[mileslunn]

I know I'm probably preaching to the choir here (even most Conservatives I know here in Ontario, most of whom support Poilievre, think Danielle Smith is nuts), but picking Danielle Smith would be such an incomprehensibly bad idea for the UCP. She would make the NDP the voice of stability and moderation. With the economy on the rebound, the UCP has a good shot of winning the next election as the low-tax, pro-energy sector party. Maybe throw in some populist red meat for the base alongside fiscal conservatism, like a commitment to not bring back vaccine mandates, for example. Instead, Danielle Smith would rather make the next election about a poorly-defined "sovereignty act" that would simply throw Alberta into a fight with a federal government, a fight that they simply cannot win.

Totally agree.  Although good chance her sovereignty act gets defeated in legislature as much of caucus is against it, but still hurts her chances in next election as people tend to not like a party that is divided or a leader that has lost control.

[mileslunn]

Tomorrow is day we find out.  Looks like from few polls I have seen, Smith is not too well liked amongst general population even if popular with base.  UCP has regained lead but be interesting after leader chosen what happens.  If Smith as expected becomes premier, wouldn't be surprised if NDP regains lead.

[Njall]

Tomorrow is day we find out.  Looks like from few polls I have seen, Smith is not too well liked amongst general population even if popular with base.  UCP has regained lead but be interesting after leader chosen what happens.  If Smith as expected becomes premier, wouldn't be surprised if NDP regains lead.

I'd be more surprised if the NDP doesn't regain the lead tbh. Albertans generally prefer a generic UCPer over a generic NDPer, but if you ask about basically any of the leadership candidates leading the UCP, the NDP jumps ahead - especially with Smith at the helm.

[Benjamin Frank]

While the UCP leadership vote count will be released tomorrow, this is the contest that had everybody in Alberta on bated breath:

https://twitter.com/davecournoyer/status/1577667103921881088

Jaelene Tweedle won the nomination.

[Benjamin Frank]

So, what time will the results be released and how is this going to work? Is it going to be one ballot result released at a time, or all at once (assuming this goes more than one ballot)

To answer my own question, the result will be announced at 6:30 Alberta Time (10 minutes) and can be lived streamed here:
https://edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/watch-live-alberta-united-conservative-party-leadership-results

Wait a minute, if it's 6:30 Alberta time, this should have been announced an hour ago!

[Benjamin Frank]

It's being announced right now:
https://edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/watch-live-alberta-united-conservative-party-leadership-results

85,000 ballots cast.

Another 5-10 minute delay.

[beaver2.0]

Many delays here.  I'm glad the youtube comment section is completely derailed and we're getting a good conversation on Alberta becoming the 51st state.

[Benjamin Frank]

At least there is commentary here while we wait:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zh-kTWZMZ18

Maybe the UCP has gone full performance theater and is doing its version of Waiting For Godot?

[Benjamin Frank]

First ballot 84,593 votes

Danielle Smith 41.31%
Travis Toews 29.35
Brian Jean 10.99
Todd Loewen 7.68
Rebecca Schultz 6.90
Rajan Sawhney 2.11
Leela Aheer 1.65

Leela Aheer drops off.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/donbraid/status/1578211048280170496

[Benjamin Frank]

Danielle Smith didn't do as well as expected on the first ballot, but it looks like most of her expected supporters went to Todd Loewen, so I don't know if this will prevent her from winning. Depending on where Brian Jean's supporters went, this could be very close.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/alberta_ucp/status/1578212460636819456

[Benjamin Frank]

Second Ballot
Danielle Smith 41.41%
Travis Toews 29.66
Brian Jean 11.25
Todd Loewen 7.71
Rebecca Schultz 7.32
Rajan Sawhney 2.66

Rajan Sawhney drops off. Wonder if Rebecca Shultz will overtake Todd Loewen, not that it ultimately matters.

If you take a look, Smith and Toews have more support than the other four combined. So,
1.Only Smith and Toews can win.
2.They could just drop all of the other four and go to the final ballot right now.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/alberta_ucp/status/1578214571248320512

[Benjamin Frank]

3rd ballot
Danielle Smith 41.70%
Travis Toews 30.41
Brian Jean 12.07
Rebecca Schulz 8.02
Todd Loewen 7.81

Todd Loewen drops off the ballot.

This is much better than going to stupid loud parties and the like.