Two Midlands by-elections...

[Ben.]

We Lost by 1,500 votes! a majoirty of over 10,000 gone and the people voted in an ineffective Liberal who can do squat for the area!

Well looks the like it'll go Labour at the general but it will take some work... GOD DAMN IT! I'M MAD! Who the hell votes for that bunch of F"LK$"£$ Hampsters! Who?

Well we won Hodge Hill all be it by a little under 500 votes but a win is a win and that will increase at the general... right I'm going to go and nurse my headache from last night...  

[English]

Don't worry, it's a better result than I expected. At least we held onto Hodge Hill.
Also a Tory win in Leicester South would've been much, much worse. The Tories held this up until 87, and even in 92 the Labour Majority wasn't too impressive. By rights the Tories should have won this. Howard will be dissapointed.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

We Lost by 1,500 votes! a majoirty of over 10,000 gone and the people voted in an ineffective Liberal who can do squat for the area!

Well looks the like it'll go Labour at the general but it will take some work... GOD DAMN IT! I'M MAD! Who the hell votes for that bunch of F"LK$"£$ Hampsters! Who?

Well we won Hodge Hill all be it by a little under 500 votes but a win is a win and that will increase at the general... right I'm going to go and nurse my headache from last night...  

Two little words: Low Turnout.
Remember that sudden downpouring of heavy rain? At least 1000 Labour voters in Brum HH were put off by it.

The behavior of the LibDems at the Birmingham count was shocking though... shouting "David Kelly" over and over again was just sickening.
And I'm really, really glad that Nokia Davies lost.

[minionofmidas]

Leicester South
LD 34,9
Labour 29,3
Tories 19,7
Respect 12,7 (!!!)
7 others
turnout 41,6 - not at all low for an urban byelection in the UK these days.

Birmingham Hodge Hill
Labour 36,5
LD 34,2
Tories 17,3
Respect 6,3
NF 3,9 (ick)
2 others
turnout 37,9

A minor embarassment for Labour, a disaster for the Tories.
And I don't see Leicester falling back at a general election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Leicester South
LD 34,9
Labour 29,3
Tories 19,7
Respect 12,7 (!!!)
7 others
turnout 41,6 - not at all low for an urban byelection in the UK these days.

Leicester South is part Urban part Suburban though... mostly lower middle class, high asian population etc.
The high Trot vote can be explained like this: The new LibDem M.P is a Sikh (albiet not a very religious one). There are a lot of Muslims in Leicester who wanted to cast a protest vote, but would never ever vote for a Sikh.

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Rain depressed Labour vote by a lot... Brum HH is a mix of working class white suburbs and a run down heavily Pakistani sh*thole called Washwood Heath. People in Washwood Heath vote earlier than people in the rest of the seat, and the big majorities Terry Davies got were a result of white working class voters coming back from work and going to vote.
When the rain came down Labour organisers in Brum HH got worried.

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Singh Gill is a lot safer than Teather is in Brent East, because of the ethnic vote... although it'll be interesting to see where the "rebel Muslim" vote goes to.
The Tories put a hellofalot of work into Leicester South (candidate was an MEP and they inundated the area with Tory bigwigs. Howard even sent his wife!) and came a poor third. In a seat that they won in 1970, 1974 (Feb) and 1983.
And the last time that Birmingham Hodge Hill/Stechford had a by-election (in 1977) the Tories won.

[minionofmidas]

I noticed in 2001 that the Tories seemed to be doing rather worse in those marginals were they put up a big effort with bigwig guests.
Just shows how unpopular the name of Conservatives has become .

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I noticed in 2001 that the Tories seemed to be doing rather worse in those marginals were they put up a big effort with bigwig guests.
Just shows how unpopular the name of Conservatives has become .

True. If the Tories had a chance of winning the next general election, Leicester South would have been an easy by-election win and they would have come close (possibly even repeating 1977) in Brum HH.

[Ben.]

We Lost by 1,500 votes! a majoirty of over 10,000 gone and the people voted in an ineffective Liberal who can do squat for the area!

Well looks the like it'll go Labour at the general but it will take some work... GOD DAMN IT! I'M MAD! Who the hell votes for that bunch of F"LK$"£$ Hampsters! Who?

Well we won Hodge Hill all be it by a little under 500 votes but a win is a win and that will increase at the general... right I'm going to go and nurse my headache from last night...  

Two little words: Low Turnout.
Remember that sudden downpouring of heavy rain? At least 1000 Labour voters in Brum HH were put off by it.

The behavior of the LibDems at the Birmingham count was shocking though... shouting "David Kelly" over and over again was just sickening.
And I'm really, really glad that Nokia Davies lost.

Did you do some work over at HH Al?

I spoke to people who came down midweek to LS from HH and they recond we where fine in HH, slimmer than I expected but your right that a fair few soft Labour voters just couldn't be arsed and stayed home because of the rain...

In Leicester I think it would have been much closer had it not rained and in the afternoon the Liberals where very very edgy and Respect where getting more and more intimidating... But I suspect that the rain and the low turn out on the predominantly white estates did for us...shame Soulsby was an ace candidate and a really nice guy (made me a cup of tea ) but I'm sure he'll run again in the general (it makes sense added to that there's no one else really who could win)... but in HH the inclusion of phrases such as Crack Heads and Junkies in Leaflets was great ... but now on to the general  

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Did you do some work over at HH Al?

No... but I had some good contacts

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Mobile Phone masts and ASBO's carried the day...

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Soulsby did a lot better than I thought he would... it'll be a good fight next election with the key being those Muslims who wouldn't vote Labour because of Iraq (despite Soulsby being opposed to the war) and wouldn't vote for a Sikh.
Re: Crackheads and Junkies... I think that may have been Tom Watson's idea. He's one to watch.

[Ben.]

Soulsby did a lot better than I thought he would... it'll be a good fight next election with the key being those Muslims who wouldn't vote Labour because of Iraq (despite Soulsby being opposed to the war) and wouldn't vote for a Sikh.

Soulsby will probably go for it again in the general election, he has much to gain and he is the strongest candidate for the area, without the resources and "bandwagon" the Liberals may well be hard pressed to hold on either here or in Brent... well we shall see  and the point about the rain is a good one, I’d say that in Birmingham at the General Labour should take a majority of say 4,000 give or take, In Brent I could see us retaking it,  while in Leicester I could see the Liberals or Labour taking a very very slim majority…    

[bullmoose88]

Tory incompetence continues...

in other news the sun rises in the east, sets in the west.

They'll be on the outside looking in until Blair steps down as leader...until then, Labour's shifted the Cons too far to the right with little room to manoeuver.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Soulsby will probably go for it again in the general election, he has much to gain and he is the strongest candidate for the area, without the resources and "bandwagon" the Liberals may well be hard pressed to hold on either here or in Brent... well we shall see  and the point about the rain is a good one, I’d say that in Birmingham at the General Labour should take a majority of say 4,000 give or take, In Brent I could see us retaking it,  while in Leicester I could see the Liberals or Labour taking a very very slim majority…  

More than 4000... Brum CC (unholy coalition of C-LD) will be very unpopular by the time of the General Election...
And if crime rises in Washwood Heath the LibDems have had it...

[Ben.]

Soulsby will probably go for it again in the general election, he has much to gain and he is the strongest candidate for the area, without the resources and "bandwagon" the Liberals may well be hard pressed to hold on either here or in Brent... well we shall see  and the point about the rain is a good one, I’d say that in Birmingham at the General Labour should take a majority of say 4,000 give or take, In Brent I could see us retaking it,  while in Leicester I could see the Liberals or Labour taking a very very slim majority…  

More than 4000... Brum CC (unholy coalition of C-LD) will be very unpopular by the time of the General Election...
And if crime rises in Washwood Heath the LibDems have had it...

Agreed, the amazing thing is Labour only has to worry about the Lib Dems, while the Conservatives for all their efforts are completly at a loss to achive any breakthrough... but the new Labour MP in HH seems like a very strong candidate and a favouite of the Party leadership and his speach was excellent both in HH and LS the Liberals had very poor speeches indeed, while the Tories and Labour candidate (win or lose) where gracious and in HH the Labour candidate was cheered to the rafters in the PUB where we were watching the results come in...just hoping for fine weather in the General Election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Soulsby will probably go for it again in the general election, he has much to gain and he is the strongest candidate for the area, without the resources and "bandwagon" the Liberals may well be hard pressed to hold on either here or in Brent... well we shall see  and the point about the rain is a good one, I’d say that in Birmingham at the General Labour should take a majority of say 4,000 give or take, In Brent I could see us retaking it,  while in Leicester I could see the Liberals or Labour taking a very very slim majority…  

More than 4000... Brum CC (unholy coalition of C-LD) will be very unpopular by the time of the General Election...
And if crime rises in Washwood Heath the LibDems have had it...

Agreed, the amazing thing is Labour only has to worry about the Lib Dems, while the Conservatives for all their efforts are completly at a loss to achive any breakthrough... but the new Labour MP in HH seems like a very strong candidate and a favouite of the Party leadership and his speach was excellent both in HH and LS the Liberals had very poor speeches indeed, while the Tories and Labour candidate (win or lose) where gracious and in HH the Labour candidate was cheered to the rafters in the PUB where we were watching the results come in...just hoping for fine weather in the General Election.

Byrne got better as the campaign wore on... he appeared for about 10 seconds on Midlands Today and came off as rather oily (not as bad as Nokia Davies though) but suspect that was because he wasn't used to TV stuff... mentioning the word "yobs" 5 times in 10 seconds doesn't work... he was excellent in his speech though, and made all those LibDem/Respect hecklers look like the bad losers they were...
Could be a good M.P
But Nokia Davies speech was awful... she praised the hecklers. I have never, ever seen a second place candidate do that before...

[Ben.]

Soulsby will probably go for it again in the general election, he has much to gain and he is the strongest candidate for the area, without the resources and "bandwagon" the Liberals may well be hard pressed to hold on either here or in Brent... well we shall see  and the point about the rain is a good one, I’d say that in Birmingham at the General Labour should take a majority of say 4,000 give or take, In Brent I could see us retaking it,  while in Leicester I could see the Liberals or Labour taking a very very slim majority…  

More than 4000... Brum CC (unholy coalition of C-LD) will be very unpopular by the time of the General Election...
And if crime rises in Washwood Heath the LibDems have had it...

Agreed, the amazing thing is Labour only has to worry about the Lib Dems, while the Conservatives for all their efforts are completly at a loss to achive any breakthrough... but the new Labour MP in HH seems like a very strong candidate and a favouite of the Party leadership and his speach was excellent both in HH and LS the Liberals had very poor speeches indeed, while the Tories and Labour candidate (win or lose) where gracious and in HH the Labour candidate was cheered to the rafters in the PUB where we were watching the results come in...just hoping for fine weather in the General Election.

Byrne got better as the campaign wore on... he appeared for about 10 seconds on Midlands Today and came off as rather oily (not as bad as Nokia Davies though) but suspect that was because he wasn't used to TV stuff... mentioning the word "yobs" 5 times in 10 seconds doesn't work... he was excellent in his speech though, and made all those LibDem/Respect hecklers look like the bad losers they were...
Could be a good M.P
But Nokia Davies speech was awful... she praised the hecklers. I have never, ever seen a second place candidate do that before...

Ahh sore loser ... I just stick by the maxim "We'll humilate the bastards in the general" served me well thus far

[Ben.]

Ben: could you report on the Sign War please?

Sorry only just noticed this Al... well the Liberals had a very very big lead early on and where carefull to go down all the main roads asking people if they could put up "LOTS" of signs and for the entire campaign we where playing catch up that said by the final days the only differance really was that the Liberals had some really prime spots while Labour signs where sadly where less visable despite in terms of numbers them both being fairly even

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ben: could you report on the Sign War please?

Sorry only just noticed this Al... well the Liberals had a very very big lead early on and where carefull to go down all the main roads asking people if they could put up "LOTS" of signs and for the entire campaign we where playing catch up that said by the final days the only differance really was that the Liberals had some really prime spots while Labour signs where sadly where less visable despite in terms of numbers them both being fairly even

Interesting... seems to me that far from gaining in the last few days (which is of course what the LibDems want people to think) they nearly blew a solid lead...
So much for the "brilliant" Lord Rennard (outwitted by a mile in Brum by Tom Watson)...

[Ben.]

Ben: could you report on the Sign War please?

Sorry only just noticed this Al... well the Liberals had a very very big lead early on and where carefull to go down all the main roads asking people if they could put up "LOTS" of signs and for the entire campaign we where playing catch up that said by the final days the only differance really was that the Liberals had some really prime spots while Labour signs where sadly where less visable despite in terms of numbers them both being fairly even

Interesting... seems to me that far from gaining in the last few days (which is of course what the LibDems want people to think) they nearly blew a solid lead...
So much for the "brilliant" Lord Rennard (outwitted by a mile in Brum by Tom Watson)...

I would agree, from what I saw the Liberals actually lost ground over the last few days of the campaign. There was no increase in signs from what I saw houses which had had liberal signs quickly gained even more liberal signs (Lots! More!) added to that the reception on the doorstep improved the Labour base began to solidify again and the Asian voters seemed to be moving back in our direction from what I saw (discounting the fob-offs on the doorstep ) but sadly the rain really did for us, I think many people expected a “Brent” but on a far larger scale in Leicester South and on the Morning of polling day despite “humid” but clear weather I expected us to hold on, when it rained I was worried and when it absolutely pissed it down I was a bit despondent because much of the liberal and Tory vote had voted in the morning and the white working class vote would probably stay home. In Birmingham it also rained and there the Liberal Campaign was a disaster, without the rain either in Birmingham or Leicester I think that Bryn would have won by around 2-3,000 votes (maybe that’s a stretch) and there would have been about 500 votes in it either way in Leicester… It will be interesting to watch in the general lack of delivery will be an interesting angle for Labour to go at in Leicester (with both Lib-Con Council and a Liberal MP) as well as hitting the same “buttons” on law and order which worked in Brum “We’ll humiliate the bastards or die in the attempt” thats my moto        

[JohnFKennedy]

   
 

I thought Sarah Teather was pretty, Ben.

Sarah Teather... i really wouldn't call her pretty :-/ ...



I say she’s a Hamster …and I saw her on tv, she wasn’t that good, sadly in the uk you vote for the candidate based on the party platform and the leader of the party rather than the candidate themselves (hence no one like say Tom Harkin or Jess Helms, the party structure is so regimented), I still think that she was so small, naive in her explanations of her positions and generally “hamster-like” that she must have got a significant sympathy vote… well with a little luck she’ll lose in the next general election.  

She isn't at all pretty in my opinion.

She also isn't a very good politician I would say, I saw her on Question Time a few weeks ago, useless, ineffective and unconvincing. Her arguments were poor and had poor back-up evidence. She just isn't good at all, and yet she is now on the front bench of the Liberal Democrats I believe!!!!!

[Ben.]

 

   
 

I thought Sarah Teather was pretty, Ben.

Sarah Teather... i really wouldn't call her pretty :-/ ...



I say she’s a Hamster …and I saw her on tv, she wasn’t that good, sadly in the uk you vote for the candidate based on the party platform and the leader of the party rather than the candidate themselves (hence no one like say Tom Harkin or Jess Helms, the party structure is so regimented), I still think that she was so small, naive in her explanations of her positions and generally “hamster-like” that she must have got a significant sympathy vote… well with a little luck she’ll lose in the next general election.  

She isn't at all pretty in my opinion.

She also isn't a very good politician I would say, I saw her on Question Time a few weeks ago, useless, ineffective and unconvincing. Her arguments were poor and had poor back-up evidence. She just isn't good at all, and yet she is now on the front bench of the Liberal Democrats I believe!!!!!

Yes she is some spokes person for the Lib Dems, in both Birmingham and Leicester the Liberal Candidates as well as lightweight where also graceless (Al will concur with me on Birmingham) but Panjit Singh was on the local News and was claiming that he told Michael Howard (when Howard congratulated him on winning in the House of Commons bar) that "You made it possible" which seemed a bit disingenuous and at any rate both Tether and Singh are just so damn weak! no bottle, no backbone and added to that no real intellectual drive behind their positions on the issues in Leicester Soulsby was a very driven and decent man and i hope to god he runs again and wins because Leicester deserves better than Singh and the Liberal Council there (hitting the Liberals on delivery will be the angel for Labour in Leicester it came close to winning it for them this time but give Singh and the Liberal council a few more months and Labour will really be able to hammer them) while in Brent I think a Labour pick-up a the general is very likely IMHO...