Ghosts of Kennett Past: Victorian State Election (Final Results)

[JimJamUK]

Looking like promising results for Legalise Cannabis (appropriate, too, that they would flip seats off Labor after Andrews shelved the legalisation inquiry's findings).  Very funny that the Greens and Labor both direct preferences to Cannabis ahead of each other, too.

Funnily enough, most of the smaller progressive-left parties (including Legalise Cannabis) rank Labor above the Greens as well, not sure if that suggests anything.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Maps, glorious maps!

Crazy how many Labor+60% TPP seats there are on the Frankston Line. Of course, it makes sense in context, but imagine telling that to someone a decade ago...

The only 60% seat on the Frankston line is Carrum. All those safe seats are on the Pakenham and Cranbourne Lines.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Lower House Seats still "in doubt"
Preston
The night count of Labor v Greens is worthless. Per scrutineering local independent Gaetano Greco will go up against Labor. His entire campaign was based on saving the Preston Market from redevelopment. Currently Greco would need to win 75% of preferences. For comparison the Greens were winning 70.4% before the VEC cut the count. So not impossible but an unlikely hill to climb. Likely Labor

Interesting.  Do you know if the Greens were directing their voters to preference Greco above Labor?

Yep. As were every other minor party, both left and right.

[DL]

Maps, glorious maps!

Crazy how many Labor+60% TPP seats there are on the Frankston Line. Of course, it makes sense in context, but imagine telling that to someone a decade ago...

The only 60% seat on the Frankston line is Carrum. All those safe seats are on the Pakenham and Cranbourne Lines.

Is there a link to that map? I'd like to be able to click on individual seats and see what they are named and what the margins were

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Maps, glorious maps!

Crazy how many Labor+60% TPP seats there are on the Frankston Line. Of course, it makes sense in context, but imagine telling that to someone a decade ago...

The only 60% seat on the Frankston line is Carrum. All those safe seats are on the Pakenham and Cranbourne Lines.

Is there a link to that map? I'd like to be able to click on individual seats and see what they are named and what the margins were

If you want to explore round all the seats, here’s the PB guide. Happy to explain any of the less obvious seat names (our naming style is very... different than what you Canadians do)!
https://www.pollbludger.net/vic2022/index.htm?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

There's another major problem with the Victorian upper house, even more wonkish and complex than Group Voting Tickets. Inclusive Gregory surplus distribution! It was responsible for Labor beating the Country Alliance in Northern Victoria in 2014, and now seems likely to change the results in Western and South-Eastern Metropolitan. It's very nerdy, but here's a brief overview from Antony:
antonygreen.com.au/inclusive-gregory-another-serious-problem-with-the-victorian-legislative-councils-electoral-system/

[AustralianSwingVoter]

In case anyone is confused by the different vote types, here's the definitive list:

Ordinary	A vote cast on election day at a voting centre within the district the voter is enrolled to vote in.
Absent	A vote cast on election day at a voting centre located outside of the district the voter is enrolled to vote in.
Early	A vote cast prior to election day (includes mobile voting, telephone assisted voting, and any votes cast at an interstate voting centre).
Postal	A vote cast by post.
Provisional	A vote cast at a voting centre where the voter enrolled and voted on the spot.
Marked as voted	A vote cast at a voting centre by someone who claims not to have voted, but who appears to have been marked off the roll. The vote will not be counted until we are satisfied that there has been no instance of multiple voting.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Starting tomorrow lower house seats will conduct the distribution of preferences and final declaration of result, which will resolve the only seat in real doubt (Pakenham).

[Epaminondas]

Is it common for the party in power to lose no seats at the legislative level?

It's looking increasingly like the last general election brought about a major realignment, with Liberals solidly rejected by voters at every level.

When is the next assembly election that could pose a challenge for Labor, NT in 18 months? ACT in 2 years?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Is it common for the party in power to lose no seats at the legislative level?

It's fairly common in a government's first re-election. They narrowly win office, have a decent first term, then get swept up in a landslide second go around. To continue that in the third election is uncommon but far from unheard of. Queensland 2020 and NSW 1981 come to mind.

It's looking increasingly like the last general election brought about a major realignment, with Liberals solidly rejected by voters at every level.

When is the next assembly election that could pose a challenge for Labor, NT in 18 months? ACT in 2 years?

The NT is a black box, god and crocodiles only know what'll happen. The Budget is in shambles, but the Country Libs have been a bit too mask off on race issues recently. Plus their leader still fails the basic recognition test "can the average punter spell my surname correctly".

ACT? The trumped up city council is always tough to gauge. Lee is supposedly performing well but no public polls to confirm it.

Queensland 2024 by all accounts should be a challenge for the Labor. But that means putting your faith in the state LNP to be competent... big yikes.

[Epaminondas]

Plus their leader still fails the basic recognition test "can the average punter spell my surname correctly".

Queensland 2024 by all accounts should be a challenge for the Labor.

Going by that criterion, it sure will be! Palash... Palajsh...
If Murkowski won a write-in in unlettered Alaska in 2010, surely Australia can fare better with a fixture of NT politics.

[DL]

Looks like the next major date on the Australian political calendar will be state election in New South Wales in early 2023. Its a bit of an anomaly that the Coalition has been in power there for quite a while and from what i can tell it should be Labour's turn to take power - after which the only place in Australia that is not under Labour rule will be Tasmania!

[Epaminondas]

Looks like the next major date on the Australian political calendar will be state election in New South Wales in early 2023. Its a bit of an anomaly that the Coalition has been in power there for quite a while and from what i can tell it should be Labour's turn to take power - after which the only place in Australia that is not under Labour rule will be Tasmania!

How far back must we go to find a party in power federally and in all states bar one? 1996? The 1975 Fraser landslide?

[Continential]

Looks like the next major date on the Australian political calendar will be state election in New South Wales in early 2023. Its a bit of an anomaly that the Coalition has been in power there for quite a while and from what i can tell it should be Labour's turn to take power - after which the only place in Australia that is not under Labour rule will be Tasmania!

How far back must we go to find a party in power federally and in all states bar one? 1996? The 1975 Fraser landslide?

From 2007 to 2008.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Plus their leader still fails the basic recognition test "can the average punter spell my surname correctly".

Queensland 2024 by all accounts should be a challenge for the Labor.

Going by that criterion, it sure will be! Palash... Palajsh...
If Murkowski won a write-in in unlettered Alaska in 2010, surely Australia can fare better with a fixture of NT politics.

Nah every Queenslander learnt to spell it in 2015. Pala, Sydney Zoo, Canberra Zoo, United Kingdom. szczuk

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Looks like the next major date on the Australian political calendar will be state election in New South Wales in early 2023. Its a bit of an anomaly that the Coalition has been in power there for quite a while and from what i can tell it should be Labour's turn to take power - after which the only place in Australia that is not under Labour rule will be Tasmania!

well historically speaking NSW governments generally get four election wins. Askin did, Wran did, Carr did. The Greiner chaos being the sole exception. And the pendulum is fairly favourable to the Coalition. However this may be my innate NSW Liberal cope talking.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://twitter.com/caracal_fandom/status/1600399766370021378
How I’d love to meet people who vote 1. Socialist 2. Liberal. The biggest brained voters.

[JimJamUK]

https://twitter.com/caracal_fandom/status/1600399766370021378
How I’d love to meet people who vote 1. Socialist 2. Liberal. The biggest brained voters.

Beyond the generic ‘NOTA’ vote (which somewhat more understandably goes 1 One Nation/UAP. 2 Labor), you would have some people pissed off at Labor/Daniel Andrews/lockdowns but not wanting to vote for a far right party which leads them to vote for left wing sounding party then the mainstream opposition to Labor.

[MaxQue]

I see very average tennis player Sam Groth was elected. I assume he will also be a very average politician?

[JimJamUK]

I see very average tennis player Sam Groth was elected. I assume he will also be a very average politician?

He had arguably the best performance of any Liberal candidate this election (though I’ve seen it argued that Nepean was a fluke Labor victory in 2018 that nobody expected to be repeated).

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I see very average tennis player Sam Groth was elected. I assume he will also be a very average politician?

He had arguably the best performance of any Liberal candidate this election (though I’ve seen it argued that Nepean was a fluke Labor victory in 2018 that nobody expected to be repeated).

A fluke made possible by the popular incumbent of 22 years retiring.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

John Pesutto (Hawthorn) elected as new Liberal leader. He was heir apparent in 2018 until he shockingly lost his seat on live TV. Southwick (Caulfield) was re-elected as Deputy. Both of them are staunch moderates. The conservative faction candidate was Brad Brattin, but he never stood a chance after the complete rejection of Guy twice in a row.

Victorian Liberals are finally pivoting back to the center, like Michael O'Brien attempted, but with an internally popular leader with a strong mandate from the grassroots.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Only 5 lower house seats are yet to complete their preference distributions, so we can now look at the results from close seats:

Bass
Distribution was supposed to be finished today, but delayed till tomorrow due to typical administrative delays. Barring a major error in the check count Labor's Crugnale should win by ~0.3%, about 200 votes.
UPDATE: Crugnale wins by 202 votes, 0.24%

Hastings
Labor did very well on the late absents, Mercurio's lead has blown out to 1,116 votes for a margin of 1.35%. A very solid performance.

Hawthorn
The star studded, media darling teal has hilariously failed to make up the 2% necessary to at least come second. At elimination she was 106 votes short of Labor. Instead the new Opposition leader John Pesutto overcomes his 2018 foil John Kennedy by 1,544 votes for a margin of 1.74%.

Kew
Ditto Hawthorn. Same 2% primary gap. The teal falls short by 213 votes at final elimination. Liberal Strong Candidate™ Jess Wilson defeats Labor's Skelton by 3,466 votes for a comfortable margin of 3.98%.

Mornington
Kate Lardner is the only Teal to accomplish the massive feat of actually finishing second. Beating Labor on primaries will do that. But she comes up just short against former Federal member for Dunkley Chris Crewther. Final margin of 590 votes and 0.70%.

Northcote
Greens did extremely well on absents and a larger than normal batch of provisionals, but it wasn't quite enough. Labor's Kat Theophanous barely clings on by a razor thin 184 votes, for a margin of 0.22%. She's in hot water for 2026.

Pakenham
Unbelievably. Incredibly. Spectacularly. Hilariously. Rechecking of ordinaries shifted 400 net votes to Labor (akin to Ripon in 2018) which has gifted them the seat. Labor will get a net gain of seats from a 2% 2pp swing against it. Labor's Emma Vulin defeats Liberal David Farrelly by 307 votes for a margin of 0.39%. Liberal cope is off the charts.

Preston
Tragically local independent Gaetano Greco fell just short at elimination (though later scrutineering showed he wouldn't have won the seat regardless, preference flows were the same as for Greens). On primaries he started 554 votes behind the Greens, but by Count 6 he'd only narrowed it to 376 votes. Too many Reason, Animal Justice and Socialist voters ignored the how to vote cards and went straight to the Greens. Greens easily leapfrogged the Liberal on Greco's elimination, for Labor's Nathan Lambert to beat them by 1,665 votes for a margin of 2.09%.

The deferred election in Narracan, caused by the death of a candidate, remains outstanding. Should be an easy Liberal hold in what was their safest seat going into the election.

Final lower house total (assuming Liberals hold Narracan)
56 Labor (+1) (lmfao)
19 Liberals (—2)
9 Nationals (+3)
4 Greens (+1)
0 Independents (—3)

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1600804017944244224

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Chairman Dan makes net gains??
Impressive stuff.
The Liberal leader was such a nice Guy to give him a net gain.