Louisiana 2003

[Filuwaúrdjan]

BTW what's a cajun? I'm curious as I've heard the word used before but I'm not sure what it means.

[migrendel]

It comes from Arcadians. Arcadians were the people who settled Louisiana. They were, of course, from the French province of Arcadia, thus explaining why a French-based language is spoken there and it is the only Catholic state in the South.

[Michael Z]

Congratulations to Blanco! I must admit I'm surprised by this result. But I doubt this is the last we'll have heard of Jindal, as GWBFan mentioned a Senate run shouldn't be out of the question.

[Beet]

Congratulations to Blanco! I must admit I'm surprised by this result.

Same here! I saw a poll last week that said Jindal ahead by 4-7 points. However I'm glad that Republicans did not sweep 4 states, that would have been terribly demoralizing for Dems.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It comes from Arcadians. Arcadians were the people who settled Louisiana. They were, of course, from the French province of Arcadia, thus explaining why a French-based language is spoken there and it is the only Catholic state in the South.

Thanks

[zorkpolitics]

Although my prediction was pretty close (predicted Blanco 53% she got 52%), I don't think this is the best result for LA.  Jindal  is certainly the more intellegent, and would likely be more innovative.   Blanco seems pretty much a life long politician of no great acomplishment.

It would be great to see Jindal in the Senate someday.

[Inmate Trump]

At least Blanco is a conservative Democrat instead of one of those crazy liberals (joking, of course).  If you're a Democrat in the south, you almost *have* to be conservative or you won't get elected.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Both run on similer platforms; socially conservative and economically interventionist.

Which sums Lousiana up quite accurately.

Jindal's still young and I reckon he might go for a seat in the House.
He can wait...

[Nym90]

Louisiana has a history of favoring moderate Democrats over conservative Republicans. It shows that Louisiana could be in play in 2004 if the Dems nominate someone like Clark, Edwards, or Lieberman.

[Ryan]

Congratulations to Blanco! I must admit I'm surprised by this result. But I doubt this is the last we'll have heard of Jindal, as GWBFan mentioned a Senate run shouldn't be out of the question.

Well there's nothing I would love more than to see Jindal in the Senate but I dont see it happening next year. IF (likely but not certain) John Breaux retires next year, Rep. David Vitter is very likely going to be the nominee. He has been laying the foundation for some time.

I dont know about the house but otherwise I see Jindal running for Governor in 2007 or Senate in 2008. However I can safely say that we will all hear more of him in the meantime.

[rbt48]

I had heard some rumblings that if a Democrat replaced Foster in Louisiana, Breaux might even resign his seat once the new governor is in place.  Now that we know it will be Blanco, let's see what happens.  If so, it would give a Democrat the advantage of incumbency come next November.  I think Vitter would be the likely Republican nominee if Breaux decides not to run.  Maybe if Breaux does stick around, Vitter will keep his safe seat and Jindal would make the long shot run against the entrenched Breaux.  I don't see Jindal or any Republican making a serious run for the LA governorship in 2007.  Blanco will be hard to beat as an incumbent.  Maybe Jindal will try for a House seat next.

Yes, Louisiana is very much in play for any Democrat to the right of Dean, Sharpton, etc.

[nclib]

<<This is an excellent result for Lousiana. The state that nearly elected David Duke has elected a Woman and has given a minority candidate 48% of the vote.>>

Exactly. Either way it showed that tradition-minded Louisiana would elect a governor who wasn't a white male. It will be interesting to see a map of these results. (Dave, are you going to post it here?) Blanco did relatively well with white conservative voters and Jindal did better than average with minorities and in New Orleans.

Ryan,
How are race relations in Louisiana?
I think David Duke got 40% in a runoff for Governor in 1991. Do you think La. has shut the door on candidates like that?
----
The LA-GOP should be disappointed in itself. The state's cultural conservatism is matched only by Utah and Mississippi, but Dems control both senate seats, governor, State House, State Senate, every statewide office except Sec. of State, 3 of 7 seats to Congress. Bush won, but surprisingly only by 8%. Does anybody have a hypothesis about all this?

[Ryan]

<<This is an excellent result for Lousiana. The state that nearly elected David Duke has elected a Woman and has given a minority candidate 48% of the vote

Ryan,
How are race relations in Louisiana?
I think David Duke got 40% in a runoff for Governor in 1991. Do you think La. has shut the door on candidates like that?
----

Well, lets say they are not much better but definitely not worse than other Deep South states. There is still an underlying tension and even open dislike between a large number of whites AND blacks (no one way street here) Still for one, you don't see that many signs of open hatred among at least 90% of both communities.

Secondly though integration in housing could be better, in many suburban upper middle class neighborhoods blacks and whites live together a whole lot better than at many places in the North

So to sum up it's been improving by leaps and bounds over the last few years but still has a long way to go.

As to Duke, many people assume he got his 40% of the vote on a stridently racist platform. (and therefore that 40% were thoroughly racist too) He didn't and they weren't. He wasn't pushing racism quite that hard though he didn't disown it completely either.

Basically he ran as the conservative candidate in the race and people voted for him because of that. Remember the alternative was anathema to many people!

So the matter of shame and sorrow (no jokes here) is NOT that 40% of people voted for him DUE to his racism but that they voted for him INSPITE of it- that the fact that he has such a horrible record did NOT turn them off.

Could it happen again?? Well I dunno. I think I could say that he wouldn't get 40% of the vote but even as much as 25% - not impossible.

Again most of those people would not vote for him FOR his racism but INSPITE of it and that's a sad enough thing. Hopefully in the near future all such ideologies and actions will become completely unacceptable and would disqualify a candidate in the public mind!

[Ryan]

So, to sum up what happened the day before, first, I was wrong, but it was the factors I mentioned as a problem which caused that.

If you recall I said that

turnout will decide this race especially black turn out. I do not anticipate any significant inroads into the black vote for Jindal despite several high-profile endorsements from black leaders. (like Mayor Nagin of New Orleans)

What could happen however is that black turnout may be low. Blanco hasn't given them any huge reason to turn out FOR her. The only reason to turn out is to vote AGAINST Jindal. If they feel they don't have a good enough reason to fear the GOP candidate winning; that would assure Jindals victory. As the black turnout goes up Jindals chances go down as Blanco has been making inroads among voters a GOP candidate would be expected to carry and Foster did by large margins the last time. White women especially married women head this list for obvious reasons.

Its still not a done deal but I do see a slight momentum for Jindal

Black turnout WAS a decider. In the primary, only 45 percent of the state's black voters turned out, and that too with 2-3 candidates that blacks strongly supported in the race. It was believed that it would fall below 40% for the run-off.
Saturday, that rate climbed to 46 percent. Blanco won 91 percent support among those black voters and that decided the race.

As I predicted Blanco did make gains among white voters of whom she polled 40%.............. Wayyyy higher than the last gubernatorial election.

And I do believe until the final week Jindal DID have the momentum. He lost in at the last moment because his campaign wasn't savvy enough
To quote from an article which I agree with;
Blanco and the Democratic Party also went after Jindal hard on his lack of political experience and the cuts that were made while he was head of the Department of Health and Hospitals, suggesting that he cared more about the bottom line than about the welfare of the state's residents.

Jindal's supporters agreed with the Blanco camp that the deadly flaw in their candidate's campaign was that he didn't react quickly or aggressively enough to Blanco's attack ads in the final days.

"Obviously you have to respond when you're attacked," said Rep. Steve Scalise, R-Metairie. "He was attacked on a number of fronts, and I don't think the response was quick enough."

Jindal made a tactical mistake in not answering the criticism of his record except to accuse Blanco of running a negative campaign, which after time smacked of whining.

Thus I still believe that this was an avoidable loss but no matter, there will be another day for Bobby Jindal :-)

[ElectionAtlas]

Last night, I uploaded the LA map and data for the 2003 Gubernatorial run-off election.  The map is also posted below.
Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Good Ol' Boys voted for Blanco? Interesting...

[Beet]

This map looks like a landslide. The election was in reality very close. It might make sense if the colors were reversed, but I thought Republicans usually win more counties because they have a higher concentration of rural voters whereas Dems get their strength from urban areas.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One county in the North voted 70% GOP in 1999... and 70% Dem in 2003!

[rbt48]

The map appears misleading (compared to the 52-48% margin because all the rural counties that Blanco carried have relatively small populations.  The "suburban" counties that Jindal carried had large numbers of voters.

Say Ryan, since you are on scene, can you report how the new partisan balance will be in the state legislature?  I saw on the Secretary of State's website that a few runoff races were extremely close and perhaps not yet decided.  I show the old balance in the State Senate at 26D, 13R, and in the lower house, 68D, 36R, and 1 Ind.
Thanks!

[rbt48]

Regarding Breaux and his Senate seat, this information came to me from CQ today:  
"Also in CQ POLITICS DAILY, Sen. John B. Breaux, D-La., says he will
discuss his political future with his family over the Thanksgiving holiday
before announcing whether he will seek a fourth Senate term in 2004. "That
fits within Breaux's previously stated time frame: He had said that he
would make an announcement sometime between Nov. 15 -- the date of
Louisiana's general election for governor -- and Dec. 15."  Leaders of
both parties are anxiously awaiting his decision. Breaux, one of the more
conservative Senate Democrats, is highly popular, taking 64 percent of the
vote in his last election. "A competitive race would be expected, though,
if Breaux does not run." Among possible candidates are two House members,
1st District Republican David Vitter and 7th District Democrat Chris John.
'Breaux has put one issue to rest: He will at least serve out the
remainder of his current term, which expires in January 2005. There were
rumors that he was considering stepping down early to pursue private
sector opportunities.' "

[KEmperor]

I still can't believe Jindal lost.  Very disappointing.

[© tweed]

What did blanco do before politicies

Huh?  Politicies?  Please clarify.

[Michael Z]

What did blanco do before politicies

Huh?  Politicies?  Please clarify.

Relax, English may not be his first language. It's obvious he means "politics".

As for the question, I have no idea. My guess would be lawyer, a job that almost seems to be a rite of passage for politicians in this day and age. But obviously I couldn't say for sure what Blanco was up to before she entered politics. Neither do I care.

[jravnsbo]

Yes disppointing but he may run for the Hous ein Vitter's district.

I still can't believe Jindal lost.  Very disappointing.

[© tweed]

Yes disppointing but he may run for the Hous ein Vitter's district.

I still can't believe Jindal lost.  Very disappointing.

Yeah, Jindal's career is not over by any means.