New Hampshire Primary (Event)

[ElectionAtlas]

This is the calendar entry for the New Hampshire Primary.  Essentially discuss this event here.

[© tweed]

NH Poll taken Yesteray:

Kerry 38%
Clark 17%
Dean 16%
Edwards 15%
Lieberman 5%
Kucinich 1%
Sharpton 0%
others 0%
undecided 8%

On to second place goes Edwards!

[© tweed]

Great News!  In the most recent NH poll, completed yesterday, Edwards moves WITHIN the margin of error for 2nd place in New Hampshire!!!

The results:
Kerry 38%
Dean 20%
Edwards 16%
Clark 15%
Lieberman 5%
Kucinich 1%
Sharpton 0%
others 0%
undecided 5%

Also, Dean falls way back and his chances of winning NH seem slim.

EDWARDS 2004

[Gustaf]

Great News!  In the most recent NH poll, completed yesterday, Edwards moves WITHIN the margin of error for 2nd place in New Hampshire!!!

The results:
Kerry 38%
Dean 20%
Edwards 16%
Clark 15%
Lieberman 5%
Kucinich 1%
Sharpton 0%
others 0%
undecided 5%

Also, Dean falls way back and his chances of winning NH seem slim.

EDWARDS 2004

Wow, if Edwards can beat one of Clark/Dean, it would be enough to give him most if the Feb 3rd states, I think. Beating Clark would really be enough, it would give Edwards the momentum to sweep on Feb 3rd.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Something interesting is that Zogby is show much higher numbers of Dean than any other pollster.
He did the same in Iowa.

[emergingDmajority1]

then I see something like this, and I get dissapointed

Zogby seems to be the only one, the latest poll this morning shows Dean only 3 points behind Kerry and Edwards making a strong surge at Clark

Kerry- 31%
Dean- 28%
Clark- 13%
Edwards- 12%
Lieberman- 9%

he hasn't really done anything to deserve such a recovery, and Dems are still worried about the electability issue.

I have trouble believing this

the latest Gallup poll shows

Kerry- 36%
Dean- 25%
Clark- 13%
Edwards- 10%
Lieberman- 10%

this looks ridiculous, Lieberman at 10%!?!?!

[Mort from NewYawk]

then I see something like this, and I get dissapointed

Zogby seems to be the only one, the latest poll this morning shows Dean only 3 points behind Kerry and Edwards making a strong surge at Clark

Kerry- 31%
Dean- 28%
Clark- 13%
Edwards- 12%
Lieberman- 9%

he hasn't really done anything to deserve such a recovery, and Dems are still worried about the electability issue.

I have trouble believing this

the latest Gallup poll shows

Kerry- 36%
Dean- 25%
Clark- 13%
Edwards- 10%
Lieberman- 10%

this looks ridiculous, Lieberman at 10%!?!?!

Lieberman will be at 15% when this is all over, DMajority.

If you were such a Clinton/Gore supporter (two solid DLC guys at the time), why should it be ridiculous that the guy who far and away represents those Third Way policies should be catching on in NH?

He may not be pretty or have big hair, but it should be clear as all get-out to any Democrat who thinks about it long enough that this is the guy who's most electable!

[emergingDmajority1]

should Lieberman miraculously finish 3rd, it still doesn't give him much momentum or a prayer in any other states. Face it, he's old, dull dry, he's yesterdays Democrat.

We can't get excited about Joe Lieberman, he's a good guy like Graham and Gephardt, but they understood when it was time to bow out. Why is Lieberman so stubborn, his campaign was DOA.

we've heard of Joementum and Liebermania, but his belief that he can actually win this thing makes him Joelusional.

[mossy]

The polls in NH are notoriously unreliable in 2000, from what I hear........i.e. McCain was 2% behind Bush the day before the primary, and instead he beat Bush by 17% points!

I'll go with the crowd strength as I perceive them, despite the crowds attending as much for entertainment as support reasons.

Kerry  38%
Dean28%
Clark 17%
Edwards 15%
Lieberman 5%  


Clark's plan is to hang around until other candidates implode.......and has stated he'll be satisfied to be in the top 3.

Man, these guys must be exhausted already, and it's only the first primary.......

[emergingDmajority1]

When do the polls open?

[Mort from NewYawk]

should Lieberman miraculously finish 3rd, it still doesn't give him much momentum or a prayer in any other states. Face it, he's old, dull dry, he's yesterdays Democrat.

"Yesterday's Democrat" is Bill Clinton, the only Democrat in sixty years to hold the White House for two terms.

Who among this crew most closely articulates the policies that gave him such strength against Republicans?

"Yesterday's Democrat" is exactly what the Democrats need in 2004.

Until the Democrats get the formula, all they do is chase away the middle, the key to winning.

[emergingDmajority1]

what I mean by yesterdays democrat is that we've been through it with Lieberman before, in 2000, and he's not a winner. The Democrats right now want to pick a winner, and the one that fits the Clinton mold best is John Edwards, he's done the best job picking up the center. The base has been unresponsive to Lieberman, he's been spinning his wheels and burning money for a year already with no results.

[jravnsbo]

Doesn't one little town have their vote at midnight? or is that just the general election?

When do the polls open?

[Gustaf]

There is an episode of West Wing which I recall vaguely, where they are desperately trying to win some remote town, b/c it always guesses right or something.

Doesn't one little town have their vote at midnight? or is that just the general election?

When do the polls open?

[mossy]

what I mean by yesterdays democrat is that we've been through it with Lieberman before, in 2000, and he's not a winner. The Democrats right now want to pick a winner, and the one that fits the Clinton mold best is John Edwards, he's done the best job picking up the center. The base has been unresponsive to Lieberman, he's been spinning his wheels and burning money for a year already with no results.

In agreement in every point--if anything, Lieberman was dead weight.

[© tweed]

Doesn't one little town have their vote at midnight? or is that just the general election?

When do the polls open?

I think that's in the general.

[jravnsbo]

GOP is having a primary too!!  and expect to see a lot of McCain in NH.  he said he will work hard to keep it and his home state of AZ in Bush's column in the fall!


McCain Returns To New Hampshire

Four years ago, John McCain shocked the political world with his 19-point win over George W. Bush in the New Hampshire GOP primary. Although McCain dropped out of the race just over a month later, he remains a popular figure in the Granite State – particularly among New Hampshire’s much-coveted and little-understood Independent voters – and almost every Democratic candidate has tried to woo devotees of the "Straight Talk Express."

Alas, for candidates like Joe Lieberman, who touted his McCain-esque credentials in a recent ad here, McCain is in New Hampshire on Monday campaigning not for a Democrat but for his former rival, President Bush. McCain will appear at one event, a rally at the City Hall Auditorium in Nashua and he’ll resurrect his Straight Talk Express bus for the ride there.

A poll from Boston Globe/WBZ-TV shows that New Hampshire Independents who voted for McCain will make up a significant chunk – 10 percent – of the Democratic primary electorate on Tuesday. The survey, taken between Thursday and Sunday, found the breakdown of that group to be 31 percent for Kerry, 19 percent for Edwards, 14 percent for Dean and 12 percent for Clark. Lieberman's ad campaign doesn’t seem to have worked: he is getting only 6 percent from these voters.

And, perhaps explaining the importance Bush-Cheney has placed on distracting voters from Tuesday’s Democratic primary, Newsday reports: "For Republicans, New Hampshire's real importance is not so much the primary as the fall general election. Bush narrowly won this state's four electoral votes in 2000 by 1 percent; losing the state would have guaranteed an Al Gore victory regardless of what occurred in Florida, and could theoretically make the difference in November."

McCain’s quick visit comes on the heels of two other popular Bush-Cheney surrogates who visited New Hampshire over the weekend, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and New York Gov. George Pataki. On Saturday, Giuliani visited with firefighters and emergency medical technicians (not that anyone could be accused of politicizing 9/11 or anything) before attending a rally in Manchester, Newsday reports. Pataki was in the state on Sunday, possibly scouting it out for 2008.

Other Bush-Cheney surrogate events include a stop by Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who campaigns in Portsmouth on Tuesday where he’ll lunch with Rockingham County Women Voters (and do plenty of interviews). Also attending the rally in Nashua with McCain will be former Montana governor and Bush-Cheney Campaign Chairman Marc Racicot. President Bush’s sister, Doro Bush Koch, campaigned throughout the state on Sunday.

[Gustaf]

GOP is having a primary too!!  and expect to see a lot of McCain in NH.  he said he will work hard to keep it and his home state of AZ in Bush's column in the fall!


McCain Returns To New Hampshire

Four years ago, John McCain shocked the political world with his 19-point win over George W. Bush in the New Hampshire GOP primary. Although McCain dropped out of the race just over a month later, he remains a popular figure in the Granite State – particularly among New Hampshire’s much-coveted and little-understood Independent voters – and almost every Democratic candidate has tried to woo devotees of the "Straight Talk Express."

Alas, for candidates like Joe Lieberman, who touted his McCain-esque credentials in a recent ad here, McCain is in New Hampshire on Monday campaigning not for a Democrat but for his former rival, President Bush. McCain will appear at one event, a rally at the City Hall Auditorium in Nashua and he’ll resurrect his Straight Talk Express bus for the ride there.

A poll from Boston Globe/WBZ-TV shows that New Hampshire Independents who voted for McCain will make up a significant chunk – 10 percent – of the Democratic primary electorate on Tuesday. The survey, taken between Thursday and Sunday, found the breakdown of that group to be 31 percent for Kerry, 19 percent for Edwards, 14 percent for Dean and 12 percent for Clark. Lieberman's ad campaign doesn’t seem to have worked: he is getting only 6 percent from these voters.

And, perhaps explaining the importance Bush-Cheney has placed on distracting voters from Tuesday’s Democratic primary, Newsday reports: "For Republicans, New Hampshire's real importance is not so much the primary as the fall general election. Bush narrowly won this state's four electoral votes in 2000 by 1 percent; losing the state would have guaranteed an Al Gore victory regardless of what occurred in Florida, and could theoretically make the difference in November."

McCain’s quick visit comes on the heels of two other popular Bush-Cheney surrogates who visited New Hampshire over the weekend, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and New York Gov. George Pataki. On Saturday, Giuliani visited with firefighters and emergency medical technicians (not that anyone could be accused of politicizing 9/11 or anything) before attending a rally in Manchester, Newsday reports. Pataki was in the state on Sunday, possibly scouting it out for 2008.

Other Bush-Cheney surrogate events include a stop by Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who campaigns in Portsmouth on Tuesday where he’ll lunch with Rockingham County Women Voters (and do plenty of interviews). Also attending the rally in Nashua with McCain will be former Montana governor and Bush-Cheney Campaign Chairman Marc Racicot. President Bush’s sister, Doro Bush Koch, campaigned throughout the state on Sunday.

That poll makes no sense. Why would people be willing to vote for McCain and then Dean? And why would Lieberman be doing worse among McCain supporters than among other independents and Dems?

I see 2 possible explanations. Perhaps a large group here are really ordinary left-wingers who were jsut messing with the Republicans in 2004 and ar now Deaniacs. Or, if these primaries are open, Lieberman is getting his support from some strange right-winged place where no other Dems would ever dare enter...

[M]

NH is famously independent and unpredictable, and the polls tell you one thing- who's going up and down. The ones going up will do much better than expected. So, expect Lieberman and Edwards' upward momentum to give them good totals (not sure how good), Kerry's stagnation to be slightly bad sign, Clark's tumbling numbers to be devastating. It's Dean I can't figure- is he going up or down?

[© tweed]

NH is famously independent and unpredictable, and the polls tell you one thing- who's going up and down. The ones going up will do much better than expected. So, expect Lieberman and Edwards' upward momentum to give them good totals (not sure how good), Kerry's stagnation to be slightly bad sign, Clark's tumbling numbers to be devastating. It's Dean I can't figure- is he going up or down?

He will do worse than polls show because of the fact that indpendents, who are usally not polled, will vote for Edwards, and a little bit Kerry.

[ElectionAtlas]

NH Primary County Map is now on-line.  3 counties for Dean, the rest for Kerry.

[© tweed]

Thanks Dave!

[ElectionAtlas]

NH Primary township map is now available in the primary section.  Clark actually wins two small towns and ties Kerry in another.  Dean actually wins quite a few towns in the western part of the state.