Zogby Telephone Poll: Obama leads Democratic Primary in New Hampshire

[TheresNoMoney]

502 respondents, MOE +/-4.5%:

Obama    23%
Clinton    19%
Edwards 19%
Kerry        5%
Clark        3%
Biden       3%

All others at 1% or less.

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1237

[Please Delete my account!!]

The Hillary express may be about to derail

[Tender Branson]

The Hillary express may be about to derail

How can a train derail before it even started to roll ?

[TheresNoMoney]

I still have no idea who any of those 19% are. I have yet to meet one of them.

[Gabu]

The Hillary express may be about to derail

Can't come soon enough!

As I've said for a long time, I've never met anyone who actually knows both her and the other candidates and is still supporting her.  There's only so much a political machine can do with a candidate with really nothing whatsoever to offer.

[Verily]

This is extremely good news for Obama; if he can win a Democratic primary in a state with basically no black population, he can win any Democratic primary (since, once he becomes well-known, the black population is likely to rally around him).

[Bay Ridge, Bklyn! Born and Bred]

I predict John Edwards will win New Hampshire

[Defarge]

Obama's peaking too early...

[elcorazon]

This is extremely good news for Obama; if he can win a Democratic primary in a state with basically no black population, he can win any Democratic primary (since, once he becomes well-known, the black population is likely to rally around him).

Obama's not a candidate that will rely on blacks to elect him.  He will do nearly as well with whites in many states, and probably will do even better with white democrats, I suspect.

And he's not peaking too early, he's just beginning to rise.

[Bay Ridge, Bklyn! Born and Bred]

Obama's peaking too early...

Don't worry.  Obama's long stellar career in the Senate and years and years of relevant experience will ensure he stays at the top.  LOL

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama's peaking too early...

Don't worry.  Obama's long stellar career in the Senate and years and years of relevant experience will ensure he stays at the top.  LOL

I can see it  now. In the McCain vs. Obama race, the McCain campaign points out that McCain was a sh**tty Senator who was involved in a major scandal (Keating) before anyone had ever heard of Obama.

McCain is a joke. I'd tell the Republicans to nominate him, but their other candidates are also total jokes.

[Verily]

This is extremely good news for Obama; if he can win a Democratic primary in a state with basically no black population, he can win any Democratic primary (since, once he becomes well-known, the black population is likely to rally around him).

Obama's not a candidate that will rely on blacks to elect him.  He will do nearly as well with whites in many states, and probably will do even better with white democrats, I suspect.

And he's not peaking too early, he's just beginning to rise.

Rally blacks to him? No, he's not Al Sharpton. On the other hand, there are quite a few ignorant black voters (maybe as much as 20% of the black Democratic electorate) who would vote for any black candidate over any white candidate, and they will mostly go for Obama. (This is quite similar to other ignorant demographics, who will go with their own Governor or Senator or the best-looking candidate or the candidate with a name most similar to their own.)

[Eraserhead]

Honestly, I would not be shocked if Clinton did better among blacks (and Obama did better among whites) in some of the early states.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Hillary's support comes mainly from name recognition and a sense of inevitability, as the media has been building her up as the next president since 2004 and the 1st woman president since 1992. I think that in reality few people actually support her candidacy, and most know she's too polarizing to win a national election.

[CPT MikeyMike]

I predict John Edwards will win New Hampshire

That's my gut feeling unless Al Gore changes his mind.

I think Obama's peaking too early.

[TheresNoMoney]

I think Obama's peaking too early.

Yeah, a guy who is at 65% or 70% name recognition is "peaking too early".....give me a break. He hasn't even started campaigning.

[Eraserhead]

I think Obama's peaking too early.

Yeah, a guy who is at 65% or 70% name recognition is "peaking too early".....give me a break. He hasn't even started campaigning.

^^^^^^

Well said Scoonie.

Also John Edwards is already running around all over the place.

[Deano963]

I think Obama's peaking too early.

Yeah, a guy who is at 65% or 70% name recognition is "peaking too early".....give me a break. He hasn't even started campaigning.

It's not even that high. I saw one poll that had his name recognition at 50%, and I doubt it is any higher than that.

[Verily]

Honestly, I would not be shocked if Clinton did better among blacks (and Obama did better among whites) in some of the early states.

I expect Hillary to be around 5% in the polls by the time of Iowa (much like Lieberman in 2004), so I respectfully disagree.

[Mr. Morden]

I expect Hillary to be around 5% in the polls by the time of Iowa (much like Lieberman in 2004), so I respectfully disagree.

Possible.  She might be that low by then.  But I wouldn't necessarily say that Clinton '08 = Lieberman '04, as Clinton is in a much better position to attract top political talent and raise a lot of $.  Of course, money and organization don't guarantee victory, but it's something.

[Verily]

I expect Hillary to be around 5% in the polls by the time of Iowa (much like Lieberman in 2004), so I respectfully disagree.

Possible.  She might be that low by then.  But I wouldn't necessarily say that Clinton '08 = Lieberman '04, as Clinton is in a much better position to attract top political talent and raise a lot of $.  Of course, money and organization don't guarantee victory, but it's something.

On the other hand, Lieberman also had some popular support, at the very least from Jews (who probably make up around 4-5% of the Democratic electorate, given that 2% of the nation is Jewish and most are Democrats), and also from supporters of the Iraq War within the Democratic Party (since he was the only candidate running on a "status-quo in Iraq" platform). Clinton doesn't have any bases of support similar to that as the pro-Iraq War group has shriveled to nothing within the Democratic Party.

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton doesn't have any bases of support similar to that as the pro-Iraq War group has shriveled to nothing within the Democratic Party.

What about women?  You don't think that even a few % of female Democratic primary voters would like to see Hillary elected, in the same way that Lieberman got support from Jewish Democrats?  I'm sure that Hillary will get a much smaller %age of the women's vote than Lieberman got of the Jewish vote, but she doesn't need as much to match Lieberman's performance, since there are many more women than Jews.

And what about fans of Bill Clinton, some of whom will see a vote for Hillary as a vote for returning to the Clinton years?  I know it sounds like a stupid reason to vote for someone, but there are a lot of voters out there who have a very unsophisticated understanding of politics.

There's also the fact that, because she's married to a former president, and because she's been regarded as the frontrunner for the nomination for the last two years, Hillary will get a lot more free press than Lieberman got in '03/'04.  The media will still cover her even as her support erodes.  On the flip side, Lieberman was never really considered the frontrunner by much of anyone last time around, even though he led most polls in early '03.  Just like Giuliani this time around, most pundits were saying that he would never do well enough with the party's base to win the nomination.

[Eraserhead]

Honestly, I would not be shocked if Clinton did better among blacks (and Obama did better among whites) in some of the early states.

I expect Hillary to be around 5% in the polls by the time of Iowa (much like Lieberman in 2004), so I respectfully disagree.

Hey I hope that you're right.