New ARG primary polls

[Tender Branson]

Dems:

Clinton leads in MO, FL, PA and CA

Obama in IL

Richardson in NM

Edwards in NC

Obama and Clinton tied in MI

Reps:

Giuliani leads in MI, FL, PA, IL, NM, CA and NC

McCain in MO

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

[Tender Branson]

Hmm. Obama and Clinton about tied in California ? Good, but California´s primary is one of the last. With Edwards being strong in IA and NH and on the same level as Obama elsewhere I think all 3 candidates now have good chances. I would give Edwards an edge for now.

Giuliani is doing well I think. Gingrich better than McCain in FL and CA ? Funny.

[Verily]

What did they do, pick states out of hat? Florida, Illinois, Pennsylvania, California... their primaries are all too late to have any impact.

Good news for Richardson that at least leads in New Mexico, unlike Vilsack's dismal performance in Iowa polls.

Gingrich's strength in the South and California is just name recognition. His support will drift to either Romney or McCain, or maybe to a "real conservative" candidate.

The states they should be polling:

Iowa
Nevada (Democrats only)
New Hampshire
South Carolina
Alabama
Arizona
Arkansas
Delaware
Missouri
New Jersey
New Mexico
North Carolina
North Dakota (Republicans only)
Oklahoma
Utah (one guess who wins this one)
West Virginia (Republicans only)

And none of the others. If it isn't decided by February 5th, the nominations will be cinched that day.

[Tender Branson]

What did they do, pick states out of hat?

Maybe they polled all states ? Maybe the other 38 are released later ? At least I hope they did *Poll freak*

[Mr. Morden]

What did they do, pick states out of hat? Florida, Illinois, Pennsylvania, California... their primaries are all too late to have any impact.

Schwarzenegger has proposed moving California's primary up to February....though it's unclear whether he means as early as Feb. 5th.....or if the state legislature is going to go along with this.

Several state legislators in both FL and IL have suggested moving up to Feb. 5th.  In IL, this includes the speaker of the state House.  But I don't know enough about the particulars of these proposals to know how likely these moves are.

[Mr. Morden]

It's also worth noting that ARG is the only polling firm that has recently produced a poll with Clinton leading in Iowa.  Everyone else has Edwards leading there.  Their December poll also had Clinton doing better in NH than what other pollsters have come up with.

Also, these polls show little variation in Clinton's support from state to state.....but a lot of variation in Obama's support.  Though there doesn't seem to be much of a pattern to where Obama's strong and where he isn't.  Though I guess you could say that Obama does better in more liberal states than more conservative states.  (CA, IL, and MI are all more liberal than the other states polled....though I guess saying that MI is more liberal than PA could be controversial.)

[Tender Branson]

It's also worth noting that ARG is the only polling firm that has recently produced a poll with Clinton leading in Iowa.  Everyone else has Edwards leading there.  Their December poll also had Clinton doing better in NH than what other pollsters have come up with.

To note:

1) ARG was quite good in 2004, especially when it comes to Iowa and New Hampshire. They nailed IA with +1 for Bush and showed a tie in NH, which was about right (Kerry won with +1)

2) They have also been good in 2006, predicting the Lieberman, Whitehouse win correctly. Their PA and MN Senate polls were a bit off, but they were taken in early 2006.

3) Their NH polling for 2003/04 had Kerry leading in January 2003 until August 2003, then they showed Howard Dean leading until their Jan. 19-21 poll, then they showed John Kerry winning the NH primary, and he did so.

All in all, ARG seems pretty good. We´ll see if this continues in 2008 ...

[Padfoot]

Its nice to see Richardson squashing everyone in New Mexico.  Hopefully some of that will bleed over in to the rest of the southwest.  If he wins, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, and Utah that would probably at least get him the VP slot from someone.  If he manages to pick up a few more in addition to those he'll be in it for sure! 

[Eraserhead]

Its nice to see Richardson squashing everyone in New Mexico.  Hopefully some of that will bleed over in to the rest of the southwest.  If he wins, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, and Utah that would probably at least get him the VP slot from someone.  If he manages to pick up a few more in addition to those he'll be in it for sure! 

He isn't squashing everyone in NM. Clinton and Obama were not that far behind.

[Padfoot]

Its nice to see Richardson squashing everyone in New Mexico.  Hopefully some of that will bleed over in to the rest of the southwest.  If he wins, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, and Utah that would probably at least get him the VP slot from someone.  If he manages to pick up a few more in addition to those he'll be in it for sure! 

He isn't squashing everyone in NM. Clinton and Obama were not that far behind.

Compared to Vilsack in Iowa he is.  Plus, at this point at least, 28% is pretty damn good if you ask me.

[Eraserhead]

Hey everyone check out how well Obama is polling among independants in the primaries in these states. He is winning among them in like every one (sometimes by huge margins).