Chilean Elections and General Discussion. Municipal and Regional elections, October 27th, 2024

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

All of the left kowtowed to Boric, perhaps the most disgusting person in Latin American politics today, and you expect people to just accept that even with a massive decline in living standards and government that is a diet Piñera administration?

You defended this even with massive warning early on of the massive risk of tying yourself to the BoBo.

Yes PSOL, I know you'd rather had my mum being in prison for being a communist like Kast proposed in his platform, than you very much for your deep insight.

He criticized Boric though, didn’t defend Kast?? The left didn’t necessarily had to support Boric from the start, they could’ve nominated Jadue, for instance.

It’s crazy how Chileans don’t even have bipartisan system but somehow act like they have one. Kast being awful doesn’t make Boric great.

Come on. He called Boric “the most disgusting person in Latin American politics”. If you think a milquetoast guy with some disreputable friends is worse than open fascists, you don’t have your head on straight.

[Red Velvet]

All of the left kowtowed to Boric, perhaps the most disgusting person in Latin American politics today, and you expect people to just accept that even with a massive decline in living standards and government that is a diet Piñera administration?

You defended this even with massive warning early on of the massive risk of tying yourself to the BoBo.

Yes PSOL, I know you'd rather had my mum being in prison for being a communist like Kast proposed in his platform, than you very much for your deep insight.

He criticized Boric though, didn’t defend Kast?? The left didn’t necessarily had to support Boric from the start, they could’ve nominated Jadue, for instance.

It’s crazy how Chileans don’t even have bipartisan system but somehow act like they have one. Kast being awful doesn’t make Boric great.

Come on. He called Boric “the most disgusting person in Latin American politics”. If you think a milquetoast guy with some disreputable friends is worse than open fascists, you don’t have your head on straight.

In power is what I understood, alongside a bit of hyperbole. Between current leaderships, Boric is alongside Lacalle Pou in Uruguay to me, but at least Lacalle Pou was expected lol

Milei if elected, soon undisputedly gets that title though.

Lula and AMLO are easily my faves.

[Estrella]

The left didn’t necessarily had to support Boric from the start, they could’ve nominated Jadue, for instance.

So president Provoste then.

[Velasco]

There was a prinary election with Boric and Jadue as the main candidates. Boric won and I think that, back in the day, PSOL didn't understand why Jadue supporters remained in the alliance with the revisionist bobo. I think it's a matter of loyalty backing the winning candidate in a prinary election within your political alliance, but call me crazy

Another question would be criticizing Boric's,disappointing presidency but come on... I can inagine a lot of Latin American politicians more disgusting for me

[kaoras]

The left didn’t necessarily had to support Boric from the start, they could’ve nominated Jadue, for instance.

So president Provoste then.

Which would have been a better outcome most likely lol.

Also, a note for the fake leftist Cardoso voter, Chile does, in fact, have a runoff system where the binary choice was between Kast and Boric and PSOL said that PC members should have sit it out and wait for the Operación Condor 2.0 to happen.

Jadue lost the primary because he showed he was unelectable in the last weeks and totally melted in the debates. To the point he made me jump ship to Boric. (And I've been telling you all how awful the FA is for as long as I've been in this forum)

[PSOL]

Boric has governed to the right of Bachelet and has accomplished nothing but brutalizing Mapuche people and dissatisfied students, the expected of a right wing government. With no worthwhile accomplishments to speak of, as he tends to derail such possibilities by even being involved in them like the pleibiscite, how exactly is he anything but reprehensible.

Jadue was deemed unelectable by the right wing media and rats of CS. He lost because there are more liberal grifters than communist members in the primary. The party went along with this for nice government salaries, which is shortcoming since it is inevitable for a right winger to win and do another operation condor thanks to the leadership of Boric, hated by 70% of Chileans.

[MaxQue]

All of the left kowtowed to Boric, perhaps the most disgusting person in Latin American politics today, and you expect people to just accept that even with a massive decline in living standards and government that is a diet Piñera administration?

You defended this even with massive warning early on of the massive risk of tying yourself to the BoBo.

Yes PSOL, I know you'd rather had my mum being in prison for being a communist like Kast proposed in his platform, than you very much for your deep insight.

He criticized Boric though, didn’t defend Kast?? The left didn’t necessarily had to support Boric from the start, they could’ve nominated Jadue, for instance.

It’s crazy how Chileans don’t even have bipartisan system but somehow act like they have one. Kast being awful doesn’t make Boric great.

Come on. He called Boric “the most disgusting person in Latin American politics”. If you think a milquetoast guy with some disreputable friends is worse than open fascists, you don’t have your head on straight.

In power is what I understood, alongside a bit of hyperbole. Between current leaderships, Boric is alongside Lacalle Pou in Uruguay to me, but at least Lacalle Pou was expected lol

Milei if elected, soon undisputedly gets that title though.

Lula and AMLO are easily my faves.

What about Crypto Bukele?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

All of the left kowtowed to Boric, perhaps the most disgusting person in Latin American politics today, and you expect people to just accept that even with a massive decline in living standards and government that is a diet Piñera administration?

You defended this even with massive warning early on of the massive risk of tying yourself to the BoBo.

Yes PSOL, I know you'd rather had my mum being in prison for being a communist like Kast proposed in his platform, than you very much for your deep insight.

He criticized Boric though, didn’t defend Kast?? The left didn’t necessarily had to support Boric from the start, they could’ve nominated Jadue, for instance.

It’s crazy how Chileans don’t even have bipartisan system but somehow act like they have one. Kast being awful doesn’t make Boric great.

Come on. He called Boric “the most disgusting person in Latin American politics”. If you think a milquetoast guy with some disreputable friends is worse than open fascists, you don’t have your head on straight.

In power is what I understood, alongside a bit of hyperbole. Between current leaderships, Boric is alongside Lacalle Pou in Uruguay to me, but at least Lacalle Pou was expected lol

Milei if elected, soon undisputedly gets that title though.

Lula and AMLO are easily my faves.

Sure, okay. Boric is worse than Dina Boluarte? I hate Castillo too but I wouldn’t go that far. Worse than Bukele? Alberto Fernández? Worse than any of the faceless conservatives in the region? Ortega? Maduro?

Liberals and leftists hating each other more than fascists is so silly.

[MaxQue]

All of the left kowtowed to Boric, perhaps the most disgusting person in Latin American politics today, and you expect people to just accept that even with a massive decline in living standards and government that is a diet Piñera administration?

You defended this even with massive warning early on of the massive risk of tying yourself to the BoBo.

Yes PSOL, I know you'd rather had my mum being in prison for being a communist like Kast proposed in his platform, than you very much for your deep insight.

He criticized Boric though, didn’t defend Kast?? The left didn’t necessarily had to support Boric from the start, they could’ve nominated Jadue, for instance.

It’s crazy how Chileans don’t even have bipartisan system but somehow act like they have one. Kast being awful doesn’t make Boric great.

Come on. He called Boric “the most disgusting person in Latin American politics”. If you think a milquetoast guy with some disreputable friends is worse than open fascists, you don’t have your head on straight.

In power is what I understood, alongside a bit of hyperbole. Between current leaderships, Boric is alongside Lacalle Pou in Uruguay to me, but at least Lacalle Pou was expected lol

Milei if elected, soon undisputedly gets that title though.

Lula and AMLO are easily my faves.

Sure, okay. Boric is worse than Dina Boluarte? I hate Castillo too but I wouldn’t go that far. Worse than Bukele? Alberto Fernández? Worse than any of the faceless conservatives in the region? Ortega? Maduro?

Liberals and leftists hating each other more than fascists is so silly.

Do not confuse leftists and discount store "enlightened" Marxists.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Honestly, the reason I'm not updating this thread is because I'm tired of pretending that a good chunk of this country isn't a basket of morally bankrupt deplorables

As if to drive this point home, one of the soldiers found guilty of the kidnapping, torture and murder of Víctor Jara killed himself today to avoid going to prison.

"Los que hablan de libertad [35% of right-wingers associate this word with the dictatorship] y tienen las manos negras" like he sang.

[kaoras]

Well, I suppose I should give an update at least.

Polls for this process have been terrible for the start, but the numbers have tanked even further since the Republican Party started added "amendments" to the text proposed by the expert committee.

According to the latest CADEM poll, 64% think that they country needs a new constitution, but just 21% will vote "in favor of the current proposal, and 59% will vote "against". According to data influye, 10% would vote in favor and 50% against.

Per CADEM, just like the proposal of 2022, most people agree with almost all the contents, but they still want to reject it. It all comes down to vibes and some particularly toxic amendments pushed by the right (like declaring Rodeo the National Sport or freedom for some Pinochet era- Human Right abusers)

Kast and the Republicans are going all in trying to approve "their" constitution, to the perplexity of their base that doesn't want to change the constitution. While Chile Vamos also is mostly "In favor", some are already jumping from the sinking ship like Evelyn Matthei.

On the left, while some still cling to false hope, most realize that they will have to follow their voter base that never even gave a chance to this new process. Again, the thing with the left is emotional, the left base truly liked the previous proposal and is angry at the conservative reaction and the fact that the expert committee was nominated by congress.

This is a problem when in 10-20 years people start trying again (everyone has said that if this fails, there will not be a third attempt). The left will never accept anything that isn't 100% elected but is extremely clear that the median Chilean voter cannot be trusted to vote on constitutional matters. A zapato chino, really.  

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

So Chileans want a new constitution, but they just don't want the new constitutions made by the people they voted for?

[Mike88]

So Chileans want a new constitution, but they just don't want the new constitutions made by the people they voted for?

Pretty much. It's like ordering a pizza but not wanting to be made by the pizzeria.

[Oryxslayer]

So Chileans want a new constitution, but they just don't want the new constitutions made by the people they voted for?

The TL:DR is that both the 2022 document, and the new one, are both seen by the public to do more than what a constitution is supposed to do. First the activist Left and now the revisionist Right have been unable to avoid throwing in things more naturally the scope of regular partisan government policy. But having the constitution include such policies would make them hard to change or get rid of, so of course the temptation is too great. Never mind the fact that it is these 'riders' which doomed the first document and will doom the second cause they make the whole thing look partisan, even though the most important things that whole process was supposed to solve are there and seemingly have universal approval.



IMO if I was had to lay the blame on any single thing, it would be the decision to make the drafting of the process explicitly partisan with lists that aligned with the national coalitions and factions, and then on this second attempt they just upped that with the experts. Obviously you can't ban people from having opinions or from stating how they would align, but official nonpartisanship would have been a good start. And maybe even more localized rather than provincial/national ways to nominate them - and therefore by likely extension a larger convention. You want these people to be responsible to their constituents first, not a party program of policies.

[kaoras]

So Chileans want a new constitution, but they just don't want the new constitutions made by the people they voted for?

The TL:DR is that both the 2022 document, and the new one, are both seen by the public to do more than what a constitution is supposed to do. First the activist Left and now the revisionist Right have been unable to avoid throwing in things more naturally the scope of regular partisan government policy. But having the constitution include such policies would make them hard to change or get rid of, so of course the temptation is too great. Never mind the fact that it is these 'riders' which doomed the first document and will doom the second cause they make the whole thing look partisan, even though the most important things that whole process was supposed to solve are there and seemingly have universal approval.

No, that is a very common mistake outside observers make. I mean, it is true, but is not the reason why normal people reject the proposals. The only people that care about "things that shouldn't be on the constitution" are ultra high info voters and political pundits. As I said, when the issues are polled, huge majorities agree with almost all the provisions of both proposals (even though most of them are very contradictory!)

For example, for the latest one:

[The Rodeo polling is biased because of the inclusion of the national dance cueca at the beginning, other polls show it being absolutely toxic with like 20% in favor)

Cadem even asked again after naming all those popular amendments and the "Against" vote only went down 3%!

It all comes down to vibes. People rejected the left's proposal because they thought they were going to steal their house and now are rejecting the Kast's proposal because Kast is extreme, and extremes are bad and the expert committee was undemocratic or something.

IMO if I was had to lay the blame on any single thing, it would be the decision to make the drafting of the process explicitly partisan with lists that aligned with the national coalitions and factions, and then on this second attempt they just upped that with the experts. Obviously you can't ban people from having opinions or from stating how they would align, but official nonpartisanship would have been a good start. And maybe even more localized rather than provincial/national ways to nominate them - and therefore by likely extension a larger convention. You want these people to be responsible to their constituents first, not a party program of policies.

That was what was attempted in the first process with the independent lists and all the independents ended up being way more extreme than the partisans, so the solution of the right was to ban the independent lists, allow only political parties and make the districts bigger. And this also didn't work out.

As I said, Portales was on to something when he said that this country is too dumb for democracy.

[Red Velvet]

So Chileans want a new constitution, but they just don't want the new constitutions made by the people they voted for?

Yeah, exactly this. This one is likely bound to be even more rejected than the 1st one, since it’s being written by people who didn’t want it anyway.

Best way to understand Chileans is through cronical dissatisfaction and anti-incumbency sentiment. They don’t ever know exactly what they want, but they will have very strong opinions about what they DON’T want. And that goes even beyond internal politics tbh, they just really love to be against.

Look at their presidential electoral patters for example. The opposition ALWAYS wins and that’s even BEFORE anti-incumbency became a ~Trend of the Americas~ due to the rise of polarization and far-right populism.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

So Chileans want a new constitution, but they just don't want the new constitutions made by the people they voted for?

The TL:DR is that both the 2022 document, and the new one, are both seen by the public to do more than what a constitution is supposed to do. First the activist Left and now the revisionist Right have been unable to avoid throwing in things more naturally the scope of regular partisan government policy. But having the constitution include such policies would make them hard to change or get rid of, so of course the temptation is too great. Never mind the fact that it is these 'riders' which doomed the first document and will doom the second cause they make the whole thing look partisan, even though the most important things that whole process was supposed to solve are there and seemingly have universal approval.

No, that is a very common mistake outside observers make. I mean, it is true, but is not the reason why normal people reject the proposals. The only people that care about "things that shouldn't be on the constitution" are ultra high info voters and political pundits. As I said, when the issues are polled, huge majorities agree with almost all the provisions of both proposals (even though most of them are very contradictory!)

For example, for the latest one:

[The Rodeo polling is biased because of the inclusion of the national dance cueca at the beginning, other polls show it being absolutely toxic with like 20% in favor)

Cadem even asked again after naming all those popular amendments and the "Against" vote only went down 3%!

It all comes down to vibes. People rejected the left's proposal because they thought they were going to steal their house and now are rejecting the Kast's proposal because Kast is extreme, and extremes are bad and the expert committee was undemocratic or something.

IMO if I was had to lay the blame on any single thing, it would be the decision to make the drafting of the process explicitly partisan with lists that aligned with the national coalitions and factions, and then on this second attempt they just upped that with the experts. Obviously you can't ban people from having opinions or from stating how they would align, but official nonpartisanship would have been a good start. And maybe even more localized rather than provincial/national ways to nominate them - and therefore by likely extension a larger convention. You want these people to be responsible to their constituents first, not a party program of policies.

That was what was attempted in the first process with the independent lists and all the independents ended up being way more extreme than the partisans, so the solution of the right was to ban the independent lists, allow only political parties and make the districts bigger. And this also didn't work out.

As I said, Portales was on to something when he said that this country is too dumb for democracy.

1. I did a google search but found nothing. Why is the national sport being the rodeo controversial?

2. Couldn't that polling be compatible with Oryx's explanation if one assumes people like these proposals individually, but don't like their combination as being overly complex? (My guess is that the truth falls somewhere in between, with some voters voting no for "base" reasons and others voting no for more constitution specific reasons).

[PSOL]

I suppose gridlock and a divided parliament is better than Kast or a right wing constitution.

[kaoras]

1. I did a google search but found nothing. Why is the national sport being the rodeo controversial?

2. Couldn't that polling be compatible with Oryx's explanation if one assumes people like these proposals individually, but don't like their combination as being overly complex? (My guess is that the truth falls somewhere in between, with some voters voting no for "base" reasons and others voting no for more constitution specific reasons).

Rodeo involves two riders slamming a steer against a wall to get "points". Many people decry it as animal cruelty. Is very polarizing along the urban-rural divide, but Chile is overwhelmingly urban so... Besides, is something typical only in the rural centre zone and to a much lesser extent in the rural south. Rodeo being the national sport is already in a law passed by the Dictatorship.

Also, CADEM did ask a month ago the reason people give to reject the proposal:



For those on the right, the main ones are preference for the current constitution, disapproval of the current government, not being informed, not wanting another process and distrust in the experts.

For those on left, the overwhelming reason is distrust in the expert committee because it was unelected, uninterest in the topics being addressed (as in, they want more things, like those covered by the previous proposal), and distrust in the republican party.

So, only 7% of right-wingers and 26% of leftwingers are rejecting due to the issues, but in the latter case is more because of things that aren't in it.

[kaoras]

New polling has been a bit contradictory. CADEM, the one that polls more frequently, shows a small recovery for "In favor" to 28% (still far behind "Against" at 53%). However, the infamous Sichel's pollster Black and White showed a massive surge for in favor in the last few weeks, going from 31 to 48% (they never take undecideds into account nor disclose their number). Given that B&W has been very wrong in the past, is used shamelessly by El Mercurio to push anti-goverment talking points and that they literally changed their methodology to show Boric with a lower approval rating*, I'm not very inclined to believe them.

*_{B&W was unusual in that it consistently showed Boric over 40% instead of the usual ~30%, so they added the explicit category of "Neither approves nor disapproves" to artificially lower his numbers}

Overall, the 4 most recent polls:

UDP-Feedback: In Favour 24,7% | Against 62,7%
CADEM: In Favour 28% |Against 53%
Criteria: In Favour 18% |Against 48%
Black and White: In Favour 48% | Against 52%

Currently the expert committee is reviewing the text proposed by the elected members and have eliminated some controversial proposals but the parties failed to reach deals and the left is telegraphing that is too little too late.

Overall, most of the right and the """"centrists""" ex concertación dinosaurs of Amarillos/Demócratas, have said that they will keep pushing for "In Favour" and some are even confident in that they will get a wide victory, Evelyn Matthei being the big exception. So, ¿Could they turn things around? In their favour they have a favorable press, lots of money to campaign and most likely the right base will "come home" once is clear that the text is opposed by the evil communists-FA. Also, I doubt that the left will do a campaign as dirty as the one made by the right in the last plebiscite, unfortunately they don't have the killer instinct to lie so shamelessly and aggressively so the average voter will have less things to fear. Probably that could still not be enough, but we need to see how low info voters behave, they were the ones that sealed the landslide for reject.

[kaoras]

In electoral politics, in one year there will be local and regional elections and government parties agreed to run on a joint list from the communist to the DC. Last time for mayoral elections (which are FPTP) the current government parties and the DC ran on four different lists and overall, there were 7 leftist lists.

The results for the left are obviously going to be very bad and that's why they are trying to minimize their losses with unity. In their favor there is the fact that they are not as overextend as they could be because their hilarious fragmentation in 2021 meant that they left a lot of food in the table even while getting over 60% of the vote. Currently they have 149 mayorships, retaining 100 could be considered a moral victory.

Their early political predictions see danger of losing Santiago Centro, Valparaíso, Puerto Montt and San Bernardo. In Santiago communist mayor Irací Hassler is DOA, Santiago hates incumbents and she has done a poor job. In Valparaíso they are talking about Sharp who technically consider himself to be opposition to Boric, but the goverment electoral experts see danger for him.

Puerto Montt, despite being a very conservative city, has never elected a rightist mayor. However, is one of the lowest hanging fruits for the opposition next year given that the PS mayor is unpopular and term limited. Also, having been to Puerto Montt, that city really could use a change in administration, it's hard to believe how awful it actually is until you set foot in it. San Bernardo is a big suburb in south Santiago and also has an unpopular PS mayor.

I will do a more extensive coverage next year of all the major comunas and regional capitals!

[kaoras]

Latest Cadem has the same numbers as last week 28-53, here is the breakdown.



Remarkably similar across all demographic groups, with just a few spikes among traditionally left wing groups like middle class and the young.

However, with the right wing, Kast and Reject voters evenly divided, "In Favour" could make a lot of ground if all the right wingers "come home". That's the hope of Kast and Chile Vamos, who in the last days seem very confident that they can turn things around.

I'm not in Chile so I can't sense things on the ground

[Mike88]

As there have been no updates on the referendum, let's bump this. It's to be held next Sunday, 17 December.

Polls continue to show a defeat, again, for the Constitutional draft. But, the recent polls seem to suggest that the Yes side is closing the gap:

Cadem poll:

46% No (-3)
38% Yes (+6)
16% Undecided (-3)

[kaoras]

Yeah, the average of polls now points towards something like a 10-point victory for Against thanks to the right "coming home", but polls are all over the place. The traditional chilean pollsters still have a relatively comfortable victory for Against (including Activa, the most accurate of the last plebiscite, with a 30 point gap!) but several foreign polls have In Favour ahead.

At the end of the day, the key is the behavior of those not engaged with politics that have broken heavily against the government in the last two elections. The problem that polls always have is that they only reach the politically engaged. The attempts of studying those "forced" to vote show a 50/50 split this time but who knows.

The government is also having an absolutely atrocious week with corruption scandals resurfacing and a guy pardoned by Boric being arrested for kidnapping. So I think everything can happen. Not that I care that much anymore.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

What are the main proposals of the new counstition ?