What poll from Washington is this??

[The Vorlon]

http://www.moore-info.com/WashingtonStateVotersthe2004PresidentialRace.htm

Here you go.

With the very dramatic exception of a Survey USA with Kerry + 10 in Michigan, the state polling seems to suggest a very modest shift towards Mr. Bush of late.

With the exception of the Moore poll, the polling in Washington Sate has veen very consistent with Mason-Dixon showing Kerry +4, while a Public Opinion Strategies polls showed Kerry + 6.5% at the other end

There were a bunch of other polls between the +4 and + 6.5 range.

Moore has strong ties to the GOP, which may or may not invalidate this poll.

If you agree that their has been a modest shift of a point or three towards Bush, a Kerrry +1 is sane, if you don't think there has been a shift, the Kerry +1 is just a bit  low compared to the others, but still very easily explained by a +/- 4.5% Margin of error.  Not crazy, just a tad low for kerry compared to the rest.

[The Vorlon]

This is a different poll...note the date is June 11.

Yes, you are correct - That poll from JUne 23rd is on the George Nethercutt Website, they have only posted the senate numbers however.

[The Vorlon]

Partisan ID in that poll looks like it was "about" :

Dem= 40%
GOP = 37%
IND = 23%

Washington state (like texas) does not register by party ID so there are no "official" numbers to compare to.

A PEW survey in November 2003 actually found the GOP had a 1% party self identification advantage in Washington State, so a +3 Dem lead seems "sane" but then again using one poll to validate another poll is a very very risky business.