Which of the following state parties...

[Joe Republic]

... do you think will be first to score a significant success?


By 'success', I mean capturing any statewide office, any of the House or Senate seats, or control of either of the chambers of the state legislature.  Neither party currently holds any of those offices, and both have miniscule minorities in their respective legislatures.

It's fair to say that both parties are in pretty pathetic shape.  But which of them do you think will score a significant victory first?

[Joe Republic]

People seem to be voting for the ID Dems.  Would anybody care to explain your reasoning?

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

Massachusetts GOP.

[Alcon]

The Idaho Democrats tend to automatically run ahead of Democratic presidential nominees, but not by enough to make the state less Republican than Massachusetts is Democratic.

I voted the Massachusetts GOP.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Idaho Dems possibly have a chance at beating Bill Sali.

[Alcon]

Idaho Dems possibly have a chance at beating Bill Sali.

I'm not sure I'd really say that defeating Sali would have all that much to do with the state party.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

MA Rep--just b/c I think when Kennedy dies/retires they'll lose a lot of steam there.  Idaho is just a Republican area--always has been, and I think will be for a VERY LONG time (if not forever)

[Beet]

The Massachusetts GOP was just screwed over by Mitt Romney. Massachusetts rightly feels like someone who just got sold down the river by a used car salesman. Wait a few years, and the state GOP will come back.

[Padfoot]

I voted ID just because Idaho is growing so quickly and the demographics are more likely to be shifting.  MA on the other hand is fairly stagnant when it comes to growth so I don't see the prevailing views there being upturned any time soon.

[Alcon]

I voted ID just because Idaho is growing so quickly and the demographics are more likely to be shifting.

Idaho growth is mostly in the Mormon areas.  It's probably mostly Republican growth.

[Padfoot]

I voted ID just because Idaho is growing so quickly and the demographics are more likely to be shifting.

Idaho growth is mostly in the Mormon areas.  It's probably mostly Republican growth.

I'd still say Idaho though, given what I mentioned about Massachusetts demographics.

[Alcon]

I voted ID just because Idaho is growing so quickly and the demographics are more likely to be shifting.

Idaho growth is mostly in the Mormon areas.  It's probably mostly Republican growth.

I'd still say Idaho though, given what I mentioned about Massachusetts demographics.

Fair enough - this is, after all, a guessing game.  Both states would have to have an exceptional Democrat (ID)/Republican (MA) against a weak Republican/Democrat, and one can only guess when that will come across.

[Rob]

The Idaho Democrats.

Their (admittedly terrible) numbers in the state legislature are better than the Massachusetts GOP's; Jerry Brady came much closer to winning the governorship than overhyped Kerry Healey; and Bill Sali will always face competitive races (though he won't lose- his district is just too damn Republican).

The Democrats are bound to win something there... eventually...

[Boris]

The Idaho Democrats.

Their (admittedly terrible) numbers in the state legislature are better than the Massachusetts GOP's; Jerry Brady came much closer to winning the governorship than overhyped Kerry Healey; and Bill Sali will always face competitive races (though he won't lose- his district is just too damn Republican).

The Democrats are bound to win something there... eventually...

If the Massachusetts GOP is so weak, how come they've been so successful  at winning the gubernatorial office since Dukakis? I'm not disputing you; the MA GOP is clearly dead, but 2006 was the first time a Democrat won the Massachusetts gubernatorial race in my life. 

[Joe Republic]

I was aware when I created this thread that the MA GOP had held the governor's mansion for the last sixteen years.  However, I intended for the focus to be primarily on the shape of that party now, and also in the near future.

[Rob]

If the Massachusetts GOP is so weak, how come they've been so successful  at winning the gubernatorial office since Dukakis? I'm not disputing you; the   MA GOP is clearly dead, but 2006 was the first time a Democrat won the Massachusetts gubernatorial race in my life. 

I'd like to believe that the state has now entered an era of unchecked Democratic dominance. The reverse happened in Idaho: for many years, the state Democrats were a force to be reckoned with, electing US Senators, Governors, and Congressman. Then the Republican Revolution hit, and the Dems were wiped out. The state party has never really recovered from 1994.

Basically, I'm going to say that 2006 was the tipping point in the Bay State, just like 1994 was in Idaho. We won't know for some years, of course, but I think that George W. Bush killed the party as Bill Clinton destroyed the Idaho Dems.

[Cubby]

I voted ID just because Idaho is growing so quickly and the demographics are more likely to be shifting.

Idaho growth is mostly in the Mormon areas.  It's probably mostly Republican growth.

Places like Kootenai and Canyon County are growing because of people from outside the area, tax refugees from California and other states. There was an article in the Economist this week about Bend, Oregon and how its a having a major boom right now. Idaho is the same way, tourism and second homes are bringing in lots of new residents with more liberal views (not left-wing, just more liberal than the natives). This will change Idaho faster than MA. A Democrat almost won Helen Chenoweth's old district last year!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

A Democrat almost won Helen Chenoweth's old district last year!

That's because the Republican was just as wacky as she was. She never won by large margins either.

BTW, does everyone know that Chenoweth is dead? I didn't hear that until a few months after it happened.

[Cubby]

A Democrat almost won Helen Chenoweth's old district last year!

BTW, does everyone know that Chenoweth is dead? I didn't hear that until a few months after it happened.

Now that you mention it, I did hear that awhile ago. She was re-incarnated as Tom Coburn.

[Gustaf]

I say MA GOP. Idaho is a very small state. The likelihood of a good candidate emerging is smaller when the pool is so small. Also, a smaller area more easily retains a homogenic nature. This is kind of obvious in this case. Let's not forget that Idaho is typically a 70-30 state while MA is a 60-40 state.

[memphis]

I'd say ID because it is a small state with large population increases. In percents MA isn't getting nearly as many new people who could potentially shake things up.