The Irony Scenerio

[Citizen James]

In what will likely in the opinion of many be a close election, the question gets tossed around about the posibility of the PV and EV going in opposite directions.

Someone else already covered the question of Bush winning the EV, and Kerry the PV, so my question reverses that - What if Kerry wins the EV and Bush the PV?   It is feasable - a strong turnout in Bush's southern strongholds, offset by narrow victories by Kerry in the battleground states and low turnout in his safe states.

Would we have republicans crying unfair, while democrats told them to 'get over it'?  Would there be massive complaining on talk radio?   Would there finally be a serious movement to amend the constitution and do away with the EC?   I'm curious.  Any opinions?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It's a lot more difficult for the GOP to win the popular vote while losing the electoral vote. If the popular vote of each state were adjusted in the same ratio that the electoral vote was affected, then Bush would have had a 36,000 vote margin in the adjusted popular vote.  The electoral colllege did exactly what it was designed to in 2000, it gave the small states more clout than they otherwise would have had.

[cwelsch]

Yeah, exactly.  Whoever wins mosty of the threes and fours gets disproportionally more EVs in relation to the PV.

Which of course is the entire point behind having a bicameral legislature in this country.

[Gustaf]

While it is true that the EC benefits small states there is also winner-takes-all, which I believe work for the Democrats due to their strength in big states. Also, the size of state-majorities and turnout in different states are also very important. I suspect Democratic areas often have lower turnout? If you look at all factors there is not all that much supporting the theory that the EC benefts the Republicans a lot...Gore was only a few hundred votes from winning in 2000, it could very easily have been reversed back then.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

When I was crunching the numbers for the 36,000 figure I gave earlier, I also crunched winner take all numbers with EV proportional to population and Gore would have won 269.12-268.88.

[Gustaf]

When I was crunching the numbers for the 36,000 figure I gave earlier, I also crunched winner take all numbers with EV proportional to population and Gore would have won 269.12-268.88.

You mean it'd have been a 269-269 tie and Bush would have won it in the house?

And did all states get EVs in this system of yours?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

No each state gote a number of EV's equal to 538 * state population / total population of the 50 states and DC without any rounding being applied.  Then winner take all was applied to the votes of each state.

[stry_cat]

No each state gote a number of EV's equal to 538 * state population / total population of the 50 states and DC without any rounding being applied.  

Not exactly.  Each state gets (435 * statepop/totalpop) + 2.  DC gets 3.  Electoral votes is equal to the number of Representatives + number of Senators in Congress.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

No each state got a number of EV's equal to 538 * state population / total population of the 50 states and DC without any rounding being applied.  

Not exactly.  Each state gets (435 * statepop/totalpop) + 2.  DC gets 3.  Electoral votes is equal to the number of Representatives + number of Senators in Congress.

I was explicitly undoing the advantage that small states get in the electoral college with my method. Very small states get an advantage from round off as well, but that in no way compares to the advtage that states with 8 or fewer representatives in the House gain in the Electoral College gain by counting Senators as well.

[badnarikin04]

Here's my idea:

We use the same EV structure except in any state for each 5% a candidate wins by that candidate gets an extra 1 EV.

For example, you have DC with 3 electoral votes. Say Kerry wins DC by 70%. That would give Kerry 14 extra EV's there making 17 EV's for DC. I know that sounds strange, but it takes into account the overwhelming opinion a state has about one candidate or another.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

That Colorado Amendment makes it much more likely that Bush could win PV but lose the EV...it would give Kerry 4 free EVs without gaining him a single popular vote.

[PBrunsel]

Your scenario would most likely be just like 2000. The radicals in the Republican Party (like Ann Coulter) would cry fowl, and than the radicals in Democratic Party (like Michael Moore) would tell them shut up.

Mainstream Democrats and Republicans would just get over it, just like in 2000.