Bush +1 in Michigan

[lonestar]

Thats what the new Detroit News/ Mitchell Research poll says. It seems to really contradict Survey USA's poll, but I don't have any idea about the quality of this firm.  It's a poll of 400 likely voters, which I know is a very small sample.

Bush: 40%
Kerry: 37%
Nader: 4%

With leans
Bush: 44%
Kerry: 43%
Nader: 5%

http://www.detnews.com/2004/specialreport/0407/04/a01-202644.htm

[Mr. Fresh]

lol, lonestar, I love your name.    Reminds me of Spaceballs.

[WalterMitty]

keep buying those ads in virginia, john kerry.  nice to see he has his priorities straight.

[stry_cat]

keep buying those ads in virginia, john kerry.  nice to see he has his priorities straight.

He does have them straight.  A win in VA and he doesn't need Michigan.  See:



Heck he doesn't even need two of the three FL, OH, PENN.

[Akno21]

keep buying those ads in virginia, john kerry.  nice to see he has his priorities straight.

He does have them straight.  A win in VA and he doesn't need Michigan.  See:



Heck he doesn't even need two of the three FL, OH, PENN.

Kerry has a better chance in Michigan than in Arizona or Colorado.

[The Vorlon]

 2004 Presidential Election Polls  
Michigan Polls

Michigan Polls in Polls section

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=26

[WalterMitty]

vorlon, would you agree that michigan is closer than expected?

what reasons are there for the apparent closeness?

[Nym90]

It's worth noting, however, that Bush got 46% of the vote in Michigan last time, and he hasn't topped 45% in any of these polls, including those with him in the lead, except for 47% in one Zogby poll (and we all know about Zogby....)

Bush only leads when there are a higher percentage of undecideds. Many of these people probably don't know Kerry well enough to have a good opinion of him yet, but considering that Michigan leans Dem overall, plus these people aren't big on Bush obviously, they probably break slightly for Kerry.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Actually the previous Detriot News poll had Bush 44, Kerry 40, while this one has Bush 44, Kerry 43.
---
Besides, there's been a swing to the left north of the border: in the recent Canadian general election, the NDP won both Windsor seats and Sault Ste Marie.
And yes, historically there *has* been a spill-over effect.

[WalterMitty]

yes, but al, just wait till the ndp f's up the new minority government in canada.  

[Filuwaúrdjan]

yes, but al, just wait till the ndp f's up the new minority government in canada.  

Point is that of the 4 ridings that border Michigan (Soo, Windsor West, Windsor Tecumseh, Sarnia-Lambton) 3 went NDP while the other is held by a Liberal (though the NDP vote went up there as well).

It goes without saying that Bush's real strength in Michigan is in the South West of the state, and that Michigan often comes down to turnout battles.

[Nym90]

Actually the previous Detriot News poll had Bush 44, Kerry 40, while this one has Bush 44, Kerry 43.
---
Besides, there's been a swing to the left north of the border: in the recent Canadian general election, the NDP won both Windsor seats and Sault Ste Marie.
And yes, historically there *has* been a spill-over effect.

In the case of Windsor, you mean south of the border.

For those who don't know, Windsor is south of Detroit; when you cross the Ambassador Bridge or the Detroit-Windsor Tunnell you are going north into the USA and south into Canada. Michiganians like to use this as a joke to those from down south to demonstrate how far north we are...we're so far north that we go south to go into Canada!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Actually the previous Detriot News poll had Bush 44, Kerry 40, while this one has Bush 44, Kerry 43.
---
Besides, there's been a swing to the left north of the border: in the recent Canadian general election, the NDP won both Windsor seats and Sault Ste Marie.
And yes, historically there *has* been a spill-over effect.

In the case of Windosor, you mean south of the border.

Damn that quirk of geography

[The Vorlon]

vorlon, would you agree that michigan is closer than expected?

what reasons are there for the apparent closeness?

Hard to get a good read on Michigan.

I would be surprised if it was a true toss up. Gore won by 5.13% which is not insurmountable, but still a decent lead.

In 2000, Bush just got killed on the ground on election day.  The Gore people made a lot of mistakes in 2000, but the rust belt "ground game" was not one of them, so I think the gap in reality starts a bit closer than in 2000, if only because the GOP has so much more money and time invested in GOTV this time around.

There are not a lot of "good" polls to go on in this state.

The Public Opinion Strategies had Kerry +4% at the height of the Prison scandal mess, and Bush has gained a few % nationally since then, so Bush down 2% or so seems "sane" to me.

The Mitchell/Detroit news poll is hard to evaluate.

This is the ONLY poll that has ever had Bush up in Michigan in a head to head race (other than Zogby Internet)

Mitchell polled the state in the 2000 race and their final call of Gore +6 was basically perfect (actual was Gore + 5.13%) which gives them some credibility in Michigan, but on the other hand their Senate and Governors polls in 2002 in Michigan were waaay off.

There have been 7 polls in the last month, and other than the Kerry +10 Survey USA the gap has never been more than 4% and Bush was actually ahead in 2 1/2 of them.

That being said, the demographics just suck badly for Bush in this state and job loses have hit Michigan worse than most.

IF Bush can legitimately make this a true battleground it bodes very well for his chances, but I would like to see a really good poll or two to confirm that it is close before I call this one a true tossup.

We will see..

Unrelated to anything - well kinda related actually...

Here is Survey USA's "Report Card" from 2002

[??????????]

I am moving Michigan to tossup.

[cwelsch]

1) It's hard to measure politics by how people vote next door, especially if it's outside the state, especially if it's another country.  New Hampshire hates sales tax and income tax, has since welfare reform steadily wittled down its entitlement and handout programs, and has in general conducted itself in the more minimalist direction of all the states.  Massachusetts sits right next to it, and has earned the name Taxachusetts for its high-spending, high-taxing priorities.  I could on further explaining Maine and then Vermont is quite divided even within itself.  They all sit next to each other, and to an outsider the differences could easily be lost on you (outside Boston and the suburbs, course).


2) This poll probably assumes (in voters' minds) that Nader will get on the ballot in most states across the country.  Nader got the MI line from the Reform enforsement, but how many people will vote for him if he's only on the ballot in 12 to 15 states?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Historically, trends in Windsor and Northern Ontario have mirrored swings in Detroit and Northern Michigan/Minnesota. And vice versa.

[© tweed]

I am moving Michigan to tossup.

You believe Mitchell/Detroit News is a better poll than SurveyUSA?

[ATFFL]

I am moving Michigan to tossup.

You believe Mitchell/Detroit News is a better poll than SurveyUSA?

Survey USA is likely an outlier.

Still, I would leave Kerry with an advantage in the state.

[muon2]

keep buying those ads in virginia, john kerry.  nice to see he has his priorities straight.

He does have them straight.  A win in VA and he doesn't need Michigan.  See:



Heck he doesn't even need two of the three FL, OH, PENN.

Kerry has a better chance in Michigan than in Arizona or Colorado.

I agree at present. The key is that Kerry would need to develop a message tailored for the West and SW, which doesn't seem to exist now. He has had a Rust Belt message on the economy which better suits MI.