2008 Senate Races - Bad Map for Republicans

[Adlai Stevenson]

It looks like we will have no more than eight truly contested Senate races as of right now. That could change if Sens. Ted Stevens (R-AK), Pete Domenici (R-NM), Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) or John Warner (R-VA) choose to retire. The same is true for Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-WV).

VULNERABLE SENATE SEATS (in order of party switch)

1) Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) - Coleman, a former Democrat and mayor of St. Paul, won the Senate seat that formerly belonged to liberal icon Paul Wellstone, who died tragically before his re-election. Minnesota Democrats selected former Vice President and 1984 Democratic presidential nominee Walter Mondale to take his place on the ballot for the six-week race. Mondale should have won the seat, but a memorial service for Wellstone turned in to a "pep rally" for Mondale and turned the race on its head. Coleman benefited from a national tide in 2002 which swept in a number of freshman Republican Senators. In 2008, Coleman will likely face liberal comedian, author, former radio host, and Minnesota native Al Franken. An open Minnesota Senate race in 2006 was won by the Democrat by over 20 points and Coleman will likely be down in the polls, although he is moderating on the war. Franken is unknown as a candidate, so we'll have to see how he does.

2) Sen. John Sununu (R-NH) - Sununu, the son of the former two-term Governor, defeated former Governor Jeanne Shaheen in a very close 2002 race when the political winds favored Sununu. In 2008, the winds will likely be very different in a state which is tending Democratic. In 2006, NH Dems defeated two Republican incumbent House members, overwhelmingly re-elected their Democratic Governor and took back the State legislature for the first time in over 100 years. It's unclear who Sununu's opponent will be, but without question he is in for a tough race.

3) Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) - Collins is not as popular as Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME), although she is perceived as a moderate. The Democratic candidate will likely be Rep. Tom Allen (D-ME) who has already announced he is running. This race barely leans for Collins but could be a toss-up.

4) Sen. Wayne Allard (R-CO) - With Allard's retirement, this will be an open seat race. The likely Democratic candidate is Rep. Mark Udall (D-CO), who has been planning to run for the Senate in Colorado for many months, regardless of Allard's decision to retire and honor his own term limit pledge. The Republican field would include possible candidates former Reps. Bob Beauprez (the '06 GOP nominee for Governor) and Scott McInnis, as well as '04 Senate nominee Pete Coors (who ran an uninspired campaign and lost to Ken Salazar). This race leans to a Democratic pickup as the state is trending Democratic with recent wins of the Governorship, a Senate seat and a house seat.

5) Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD) - Crass though it may be to think of politics when a person is in the hospital, it's hard to see Johnson fully recovering and running for re-election in 2008. The race would likely be between Gov. Mike Rounds (R-SD) and Rep. Stephanie Herseth (D-SD) and would lean towards a Republican pick-up given the state's political leanings. Herseth won the seat in 2004 in a special election after Rep. Bill Janklow resigned. Rounds won re-election in 2006 and is a popular figure in South Dakota.

6) Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) - Landrieu has gotten high marks for her work on Hurricane Katrina, but would be challenged in a race with Rep. Bobby Jindal (R-LA) who has already said he will run for Governor in 2007. If Jindal loses the Governor's race, he may choose to run against Landrieu and would have a chance at defeating her. Jindal is favored to win the Governor's race, especially if he faces the incumbent Kathleen Blanco (D-LA). In Jindal wins the Governorship,

7) Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT) - Montana has been trending Democratic, so Baucus should be fine, especially since he has assumed the Chairmanship of the Senate Finance Committee and already has $2 million in the bank in a state where you only need $5 million to run a good race. They only way Baucus could be challenged is if the state's lone Congressman, Denny Rehberg, decides to challenge Baucus again, as he did in 1996 Rehberg is a popular figure in the state and a former Lieutenant Governor, but he only has about $100,000 in the bank and may not be willing to give up his safe House seat (where he has a seat on the House Approps committee) for another shot at Baucus. He may choose to remain in the House until Baucus retires, which could be 2008 but will surely be 2014 or run against one-term Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) in 2012.

Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR) - Smith could race a campaign simply because the state is more liberal than he is, but no strong Democrat has stepped forward yet. Smith also has renounced his support for the Iraq War, so that will help him at home.

Overall, the map of Senate races in 2008 does not favor Republicans. There are 21 GOP seats up and 12 Democrat seats up, and of the seats where there are races, they overwhelmingly favor Democrats at this point.

http://politicalinsider.com/2007/02/2008_senate_races_bad_map_for.html

[Adlai Stevenson]

I disagree with these ratings.  Also there information on Tim Johnson is bang wrong; he has hired a top party strategist and is actively seeking re-election with the aid of Max Baucus.  I also think even if he didn't run for re-election, Herseth would be favoured over Rounds in a match-up.  Rounds was damaged by the Abortion issue.  In 2006, Herseth was re-elected 69%-29% and Rounds 61%-36%.  Both big margins, but there is a difference.  Anyway my rankings of the most vulnerable Senate races would be:

1. Colorado (R to D)
2. New Hampshire (R to D)
3. Louisiana (D to R)
4. Minnesota (R to D)
5. Oregon (R to D)
6. Maine (R to D)

[Adlai Stevenson]

I agree that the partisan makeup of the Senate in January 2009 will be 55-45 Democratic.  I think Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Oregon will all be states carried by the Democratic Presidential nominne in 2008 and will also all elect Democratic Senators that year, thus giving the Democrats a net gain of four seats.  As for Louisiana, I would put it as a Lean Dem state - probably the only one.  Landrieu has good approval ratings for an endangered species (Southern Democratic Senator) and her most formidable opponent, Bobby Jindal, is running for Governor and will almost certainly win in 2007, thus removing him from challenging her. 

[Adlai Stevenson]

I agree that the partisan makeup of the Senate in January 2009 will be 55-45 Democratic.  I think Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Oregon will all be states carried by the Democratic Presidential nominne in 2008 and will also all elect Democratic Senators that year, thus giving the Democrats a net gain of four seats.  As for Louisiana, I would put it as a Lean Dem state - probably the only one.  Landrieu has good approval ratings for an endangered species (Southern Democratic Senator) and her most formidable opponent, Bobby Jindal, is running for Governor and will almost certainly win in 2007, thus removing him from challenging her. 

Im not sure about Oregon.  Smith seems to be in pretty good shape. 

Oregon may be the prediction I regret.  However, I think the DSCC is a very powerfully run organisation under Charles Schumer and given his success in 2006 I feel that Oregon will be an obvious target of his.  It is a Democrat state in a Presidential year in what is likely to be a good Democratic year.  It will obviously be on the target list and Smith has never won by huge margins; 48%-47% in 1996 and 56%-40% in 2002.  I think the DSCC list of targets will be something like this -

1. New Hampshire
2. Colorado
3. Minnesota
4. Oregon
5. Maine

Then the somewhat more; long-shot races like North Carolina, Texas and Oklahoma cannot be discounted either.  Also there is still Virginia, New Mexico and Mississippi - states where the incumbents have not definitely stated they are running for re-election. 

[Adlai Stevenson]

I agree that the partisan makeup of the Senate in January 2009 will be 55-45 Democratic.  I think Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Oregon will all be states carried by the Democratic Presidential nominne in 2008 and will also all elect Democratic Senators that year, thus giving the Democrats a net gain of four seats.  As for Louisiana, I would put it as a Lean Dem state - probably the only one.  Landrieu has good approval ratings for an endangered species (Southern Democratic Senator) and her most formidable opponent, Bobby Jindal, is running for Governor and will almost certainly win in 2007, thus removing him from challenging her. 

Im not sure about Oregon.  Smith seems to be in pretty good shape. 

Oregon may be the prediction I regret.  However, I think the DSCC is a very powerfully run organisation under Charles Schumer and given his success in 2006 I feel that Oregon will be an obvious target of his.  It is a Democrat state in a Presidential year in what is likely to be a good Democratic year.  It will obviously be on the target list and Smith has never won by huge margins; 48%-47% in 1996 and 56%-40% in 2002.  I think the DSCC list of targets will be something like this -

1. New Hampshire
2. Colorado
3. Minnesota
4. Oregon
5. Maine

Then the somewhat more; long-shot races like North Carolina, Texas and Oklahoma cannot be discounted either.  Also there is still Virginia, New Mexico and Mississippi - states where the incumbents have not definitely stated they are running for re-election. 

I actually see North Carolina as more likely than Oregon.

If Mike Easley run, yes. If not, Oregon is many notches higher. Are you expecting Easley to run?

No, I am not.  However, North Carolina does have a solid Democratic base and there are plenty of other Democrats besides Easley that could at least make it interesting.

Beyond Easley there is Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue and Attorney General Richard Moore, both of whom are expected to run for Governor in 2008 however, there are also at least three credible Congressional candidates - Bob Etheridge, Mike McIntyre and Brad Miller.  Etheridge would be 67 and perhaps too old in 2008.  McIntyre in my view would be an excellent candidate, in 2004 he received ratings of 60 from both ADA and ACU - he has represented a conservative district since 1996 and is still a loyal Democrat.  Miller comes from the marginal NC-13 and has served since 2002, he is a bit older and more liberal than McIntyre, he will be 55 in 2008 and McIntyre will be 52. 

[Adlai Stevenson]

I agree that the partisan makeup of the Senate in January 2009 will be 55-45 Democratic.  I think Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Oregon will all be states carried by the Democratic Presidential nominne in 2008 and will also all elect Democratic Senators that year, thus giving the Democrats a net gain of four seats.  As for Louisiana, I would put it as a Lean Dem state - probably the only one.  Landrieu has good approval ratings for an endangered species (Southern Democratic Senator) and her most formidable opponent, Bobby Jindal, is running for Governor and will almost certainly win in 2007, thus removing him from challenging her. 

Im not sure about Oregon.  Smith seems to be in pretty good shape. 

Oregon may be the prediction I regret.  However, I think the DSCC is a very powerfully run organisation under Charles Schumer and given his success in 2006 I feel that Oregon will be an obvious target of his.  It is a Democrat state in a Presidential year in what is likely to be a good Democratic year.  It will obviously be on the target list and Smith has never won by huge margins; 48%-47% in 1996 and 56%-40% in 2002.  I think the DSCC list of targets will be something like this -

1. New Hampshire
2. Colorado
3. Minnesota
4. Oregon
5. Maine

Then the somewhat more; long-shot races like North Carolina, Texas and Oklahoma cannot be discounted either.  Also there is still Virginia, New Mexico and Mississippi - states where the incumbents have not definitely stated they are running for re-election. 

I actually see North Carolina as more likely than Oregon.

If Mike Easley run, yes. If not, Oregon is many notches higher. Are you expecting Easley to run?

No, I am not.  However, North Carolina does have a solid Democratic base and there are plenty of other Democrats besides Easley that could at least make it interesting.

Beyond Easley there is Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue and Attorney General Richard Moore, both of whom are expected to run for Governor in 2008 however, there are also at least three credible Congressional candidates - Bob Etheridge, Mike McIntyre and Brad Miller.  Etheridge would be 67 and perhaps too old in 2008.  McIntyre in my view would be an excellent candidate, in 2004 he received ratings of 60 from both ADA and ACU - he has represented a conservative district since 1996 and is still a loyal Democrat.  Miller comes from the marginal NC-13 and has served since 2002, he is a bit older and more liberal than McIntyre, he will be 55 in 2008 and McIntyre will be 52. 

McIntrye is well established in the House -- I doubt he'd run. With the Gubernatorial and other statewide offices getting most of the attention, I expect Dole to cruise to reelection.

Anyways, can you name the last Democrat to win a close Senate race in the South in a Presidential year? Her name is Mary Landrieu and the year was 1996. 12 years is a long time...

That is a well observed point and I agree it would be daunting, but its not impossible.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I agree that the partisan makeup of the Senate in January 2009 will be 55-45 Democratic.  I think Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Oregon will all be states carried by the Democratic Presidential nominne in 2008 and will also all elect Democratic Senators that year, thus giving the Democrats a net gain of four seats.  As for Louisiana, I would put it as a Lean Dem state - probably the only one.  Landrieu has good approval ratings for an endangered species (Southern Democratic Senator) and her most formidable opponent, Bobby Jindal, is running for Governor and will almost certainly win in 2007, thus removing him from challenging her. 

Im not sure about Oregon.  Smith seems to be in pretty good shape. 

Oregon may be the prediction I regret.  However, I think the DSCC is a very powerfully run organisation under Charles Schumer and given his success in 2006 I feel that Oregon will be an obvious target of his.  It is a Democrat state in a Presidential year in what is likely to be a good Democratic year.  It will obviously be on the target list and Smith has never won by huge margins; 48%-47% in 1996 and 56%-40% in 2002.  I think the DSCC list of targets will be something like this -

1. New Hampshire
2. Colorado
3. Minnesota
4. Oregon
5. Maine

Then the somewhat more; long-shot races like North Carolina, Texas and Oklahoma cannot be discounted either.  Also there is still Virginia, New Mexico and Mississippi - states where the incumbents have not definitely stated they are running for re-election. 

I actually see North Carolina as more likely than Oregon.

If Mike Easley run, yes. If not, Oregon is many notches higher. Are you expecting Easley to run?

No, I am not.  However, North Carolina does have a solid Democratic base and there are plenty of other Democrats besides Easley that could at least make it interesting.

Beyond Easley there is Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue and Attorney General Richard Moore, both of whom are expected to run for Governor in 2008 however, there are also at least three credible Congressional candidates - Bob Etheridge, Mike McIntyre and Brad Miller.  Etheridge would be 67 and perhaps too old in 2008.  McIntyre in my view would be an excellent candidate, in 2004 he received ratings of 60 from both ADA and ACU - he has represented a conservative district since 1996 and is still a loyal Democrat.  Miller comes from the marginal NC-13 and has served since 2002, he is a bit older and more liberal than McIntyre, he will be 55 in 2008 and McIntyre will be 52. 

McIntrye is well established in the House -- I doubt he'd run. With the Gubernatorial and other statewide offices getting most of the attention, I expect Dole to cruise to reelection.

Anyways, can you name the last Democrat to win a close Senate race in the South in a Presidential year? Her name is Mary Landrieu and the year was 1996. 12 years is a long time...

Bill Nelson in Florida 2000.

Good point - but Florida and Louisiana are different really.  And it is now harder for a Democrat to win an open-seat election in Florida than a Republican, as evinced by 2004. 

[Adlai Stevenson]

I am on record as stating Collins will go down. 

[Adlai Stevenson]

Mississippi - Safe GOP.

C'mon, Mike Moore will make it a race.  Maybe Lean GOP is the best way to describe it, but unless Cochran decides not to retire (an unlikely possibility from what I hear), Mississippi will be close in 2008, and Moore could definitely win.

I appreciate your optimism but we haven't heard anything from Cochran or Moore yet - I would certainly be happy if Cochran, who is actually a good GOP Senator, retired and Moore ran to succeed him.  However, the last time there was an open seat in a Presidential year in Mississippi was 1988 - and Trent Lott beat Wayne Dowdy 54%-45%.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Mississippi - Safe GOP.

C'mon, Mike Moore will make it a race.  Maybe Lean GOP is the best way to describe it, but unless Cochran decides not to retire (an unlikely possibility from what I hear), Mississippi will be close in 2008, and Moore could definitely win.

Let me correct myself:
Mississippi - Safe Republican.  If Cochran retires, strong Republican.  It's one of those cases where Democrats have much more success running for state office than federal office.  An upset wouldn't be unheard of, but let's face it -- it's no longer 1966, or even 1986 for that matter.  Democrats just don't play well in the deep south, and they're only going to play worse and worse as time goes on.

Especially in a Presidential Election year.  With a closely divided Senate.

I still think it is possible.  Mike Moore would be the strongest Democratic candidate and the race would still be close.  However, he was a very popular Attorney General until 2004.  Mississippi is an interesting state really it would still go for the right type of Democrat, i.e. Moore and the African American population is rising.