The wisdom of gamblers?
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Citizen James
James42
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« on: February 15, 2007, 05:43:52 PM »

Consider me skeptical.

I know that online gambling on elections seems to be the new 'cool' form of exotic betting, but can it really be a valid predictor of human behavior?

The odds are not based on the analysis of 'professionals' (if such people actually exist - human behavior tends to have a chaotic tendency.  Things can change quickly on small initial events).  They are simply a reflection as to how much money has been wagered by various bettors on each candidate.

I think that these results are more a reflection of fad-chasing and a lagging indicator of international public opinion, not a reflection of the actual likelyhood of any actual events happening.

In short, I consider sites like tradesports a novelty rather than a useful analytical tool.

What say you?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1 on: February 15, 2007, 06:44:58 PM »

Gamblers are inherently fools.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #2 on: February 15, 2007, 07:08:44 PM »

People will generally speaking make judgements they themselves believe in more if they're betting, for obvious reasons. Btut then again, what kind of people bet?
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