August 19, 1991: Ivanov Ivan Ivanovich, a disgruntled member of the Revolutionary Communist Party, USA shot at Marine One with a Stinger missile he'd acquired on the black market as it was returning to the White House from Camp David. While he didn't actually hit Marine One, he did cause it and its escorting helicopter to crash. Bush survives for five days before finally succumbing from his injuries.
Ivanovich had been acting entirely on his own, but the Stinger had originally been one of those supplied to the mujahideen in Afghanistan, and the reason that Marine One had been making an unscheduled return to the White House was the first reports of the Soviet coup attempt of 1991. Needless to say, the unfortunate coincidence caused a jump to DEFCON 2 by United States forces. This along with other mutual saber rattling caused the coup plotters to be more bold in their efforts, which however remained unsuccessful. Relations were quickly patched up afterwards, with President Quayle widely hailed under the circumstances for attending Gorbachev's funeral later that month. He would be nominated, but not win a Nobel Peace prize for this. (However, Quayle will also not receive the Ig Nobel prize that he received in 1991, so it isn't a total loss though he'll never knoe that.)
With Gorbachev dead, and the rest of the senior leadership of the Soviet Union under arrest for their part in the coup plot, it did not take much arm-twisting on anyone's part for Yeltsin to be installed as president of the Soviet Union in September 1991. The New Union Treaty is signed by Yeltsin as President of the Russian SFSR, just before he became President of the USSR instead. The Baltic States gain their independence, as does Moldova (less Transnistria), but Yeltsin appeases the remaining hardliners by crushing Georgian attempts at independence from the USSR.
Meanwhile back in the States, Quayle's first major problem is who to pick as VP. He decides to reach out to the moderate wing of the party and nominate Sen. Nancy Landon Kassebaum (R-Kansas) for VP. Perot does run in 1992 and does not take his mid-campaign dive.
Clinton/Gore 321 EV 39%PV
Quayle/Kassebaum 206 EV 35% PV
Perot/Stockman 11 EV 25% PV
(Nevada was especially close with less than 300 votes separating 1st from 3rd, and not settled until after a recount. Perot was said to have been ready for legal action, but with him winning the State and the result not mattering, no legal action was undertaken.)
Clinton still wins, but it's not as impressive and without even 40% of the PV, he doesn't try to claim a mandate. Despite urgings from her, Clinton decides not to attempt HillaryCare. OTOH, emboldened by the results, the Perotistas are able to keep the interest of Perot (and his money) and make plans to challenge the Congressional elections in 1994. The election of 1992 also caused another truism to enter politics, "Don't pick a Kansas Senator to be your running mate." It wouldn't be until the 23rd century that a Senator from Kansas would be nominated for Vice President again, and lose again.
1994 sees the Reform party electing only five Representatives (and the Delegate from Guam), but as a result of the close results Dem 216 GOP 213 Ref 5 Soc 1 they hold the balance of power. In the end, the GOP is hungrier for power, so the Reform party makes its deal with them, with at least 1 Reform Representative on every committee and each of them getting to chair a subcommittee, with the Rules Committee split 7-4-2 and both of its subcommittees split 4-2-1 (GOP-Dem-Ref) so that the traditional 2/3rd ramrod would require the support of the Reform member(s). Despite their associating with the Republicans to form the House, they do assert themselves from time to time so as to prove their independence.
The 1996 race saw Clinton/Gore seeking reelection of course, but with a stronger Reform party, both the GOP and Reform tickets differ. The GOP puts forth a Lugar/Gramm ticket while the Reform ticket will be Perot/Lamm. (This coincidence of VP names led to some Clinton/Goremm signs being printed by the campaign but not being distributed because Gore objected. They are considered to be the most valuable item of campaign memorabilia from the 1996 campaign, having fetched as much as $2,000 on eBay.)
Clinton/Gore 218 EV 34% PV
Lugar/Gramm 176 EV 33% PV
Perot/Lamm 144 EV 31% PV
The Republicans controlled the Senate 53-44-3 But the House was well up for grabs, as was the Presidency. The GOP used its control of the Senate to broker another deal with the Reform party. The Reform party picked up a couple of committee chairs in the House and ex-Governor Lamm of Colorado as Vice President in exchange for a President Luger and a continuation of Speaker Gingrich. Needless to say, Perot wasn't too happy with this, and so as result he basically abandoned the Reform party after attempts to regain control in 1998 and in 2000 that failed. Despite failing at gaining control of the party, he did manage to weaken it enough that 1996 would prove the high point of the party as a national force, though individual state parties in several States would continue to be influential at the state level for years to come.
2000 would see Lugar pick second term governor Beasley of South Carolina as his running mate. The Democrats had a spirited race with Governor Dean of Vermont and ex-Governor Miller of Georgia. The Reform party after the infighting with Perot ran Vice President Lamm and Governor Foster of Louisiana on their ticket. Lugar cruised in the electoral college, altho he only got 49% of the popular vote. The Republicans also managed to gain sole control of the House in the 2000 elections. With the national Reform Party fading, several of their Representatives who had been reelected mainly a result of their own efforts instead of those of the party chose to switch to either the Republicans or the Democrats so as improve their future prospects, and in the case of those who became Republicans, retain chairmanships of committees and subcommittees.
9/11 happened pretty much as scheduled save for a few butterflies. However, with there still being a Soviet Union, bases in the Central Asian republics for supporting our efforts in Afghanistan were non-existent, as a result the invasion of Afghanistan was delayed until the Spring of 2002. The longer lead time however meant that we did move, we were not as dependent upon the Northern Alliance. Osama bin Laden was captured in June 2002.
In the election of 2004 Vice President Beasley was a lock for the Republican nomination and he chose Rudy Giuliani to be his running mate. However, with a rather severe recession that year (the first since a mild one in 1999) by November the result was never in doubt two term governor Richardson of New Mexico along with former Vice President Lamm (chosen so as to help pick up the remnants of the national Reform Party for the Democratic ticket) cruised to election, Lamm becoming the first Vice President to serve non-consecutive terms as the 47th and 49th Vice President of the United States (and the first to be elected under the banner of two different parties).
The 2008 election was interesting primarily for the race between the Bush brothers (George W. and Jeb) for the nomination altho in the end the ex-governors were beaten by a sitting governor, Tom Tancredo of Colorado who chose Jeb as his running mate, both because Florida was not as safe a state as Texas and because Jeb had done better in the primary that his brother. Still, with a strong economy, Tancredo's isolationist calls to bring the troops home from Afghanistan to patrol the Mexican rather than the Pakistani border did not meet with much success, so Richardson and Lamm were easily reelected.
