2023 Thailand general election - May 14th

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/thailands-pita-open-coalition-ally-leading-government-if-he-fails-pm-bid-2023-07-15/

"Thailand's Pita open to coalition ally leading government if he fails in PM bid"

Pita is coming out in the open with what the likely next step is.  It is time to move to the "good cop" PT to emerge to get the pro-military bloc to back a PT PM with the threat of "bad cop" Pita still lurking out there.

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/thai-alliance-reaffirms-backing-pitas-pm-bid-2023-07-17/

"Thai alliance reaffirms backing for Pita's second PM bid"

As expected Pita is going to try again on July 19th.  After he fails that one most likely a PT candidate will emerge.  Some in the pro-military Senate are already saying it is not legal for Pita to try again after getting rejected the first time.

[xelas81]

Seeing that negotiations are going nowhere, will Thai military to launch coup in name of "stability"? 

[NewYorkExpress]

Seeing that negotiations are going nowhere, will Thai military to launch coup in name of "stability"? 

They were going to launch one if it looked like Pita was going to win anyways.

[jaichind]

PT's Paetongtarn Shinawatra who was the face of PT's campaign confirmed that Srettha Thavisin (as rumors speculated) will be the PT candidate for PM should Pita fail for the second time to win a majority in the PM vote on July 19th.  The good cop officially emerges.

Will not surprise me PT is playing good cop bad cop with both the pro-military bloc and MFP at the same time behind the scenes.  That the pro-military bloc and their base hate MFP and their base and vice versa merely gives PT the chance to come in and take a good chunk of leverage and power.

[jaichind]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/19/thai-court-suspends-pita-as-mp-as-parliament-votes-on-new-premier

"Thai court suspends Pita as MP as parliament votes on new premier"

Right before the vote in Parliament for PM, the Thai Constitutional Court temporarily suspended Pita as MP due to it taking the case that he illegally held a share in a media company.  Clearly, this is a move by the establishment to give the massive anti-Pita majority in the Senate to stick to their guns and not vote for Pita. 

This move does not stop Pita from being a PM candidate but before the vote, the anti-military bloc Speaker will need to rule if Pita is allowed to stand for a second time for PM.   Most likely he will rule that he can and Pita will be defeated for the second time which will pave the way for PT to put forth their candidate.

The next battle would be whether would PT lead the PT-MFP government or will the pro-military bloc force PT to drop MFP and take in the pro-military parties as allies.  This will be a 3-way game of chicken.

[jaichind]

Thailand Parliament votes to bar Pita from a second vote on the rule that the same bill cannot be brought up twice in the same session.  Clearly, if there is a majority against Pita even being on the ballot again then there is a majority to vote him down. 

Anyway, that is the end of Pita.  Onward to the real battle: What will the form of the PT government look like? Will it have MFP support? What is the role of the pro-military parties in such a PT government?

[jaichind]

It seems 395 MPs voted for the procedural motion that Pita cannot run again.  Given that Pita won 324 votes last week in his bid for PM that means around 30 MPs (mostly Senators) are "neutral" in the sense that they will not vote for Pita but will avoid voting against him, especially when there are enough MPs that will vote against him anyway.  These "neutral" MPs are anti-Pita but do not want to come out in the open to vote against the electoral majority of the 2023 election.

[jaichind]

Multiple sources report that the pro-military parties + Senate are willing to support a PT PM as long as PT breaks off ties with MFP.  The main problem with that from the PT point of view is that in the 2027 elections, PT will lose a bunch of PT-MFP marginal voters to MFP.  PT has to find a way for the pro-military parties + Senate to back off on this demand of finding a way for MFP to ask for a divorce first so PT does not take the blame for dumping MFP.

One big electoral plus for PT would be all the rural factional kingpin votes that went to BJT and PPP in 2019 and 2023 will most likely go back to PT for 2027 once PT is in charge of the government.  The main danger is the loss of the urban progressive vote to MFP outside the Northwest.

[jaichind]

The next vote for PM is next Thursday so PT has less than a week to work out the exact nature of their majority.   

[jaichind]

BJT tells PT that it cannot support a PT government if MFP continues to be an ally of PT.  BJT tells PT to get a "divorce" from MFP.

[jaichind]

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/thai-ombudsman-asks-the-charter-court-to-suspend-pm-selection-process/

"Rejection of Pita’s renomination as PM ‘unconstitutional’ : Ombudsman"

Ombudsman ruled today (Monday) that parliament’s rejection of Move Forward party leader Pita Limjaroenrat’s renomination as a prime ministerial candidate was unconstitutional and agreed to forward the case to the Constitutional Court.

This week's vote on PM is to be delayed due to this escalation.  Of course, functionally it does not matter.  If a majority can vote down Pita's eligibility to run for PM for the second time then the same majority can just reject him again if the Constitutional Court forces such a vote.

Separately PT indicated that "MFP is not really the largest party.  If you add up all the pro-military parties their seat count exceeds MFP.  In the Lower House there are now 3 blocs, MFP, PT, and the pro-military parties"  By framing it this way PT has already disassociated itself with MFP to be equidistant between MFP and the pro-military parties.  Now it will be PT playing "good cop bad cop" on both MFP and the pro-military parties using one to threaten the other.  The fact MFP and the pro-military parties rule out any truck with each other merely plays into the hands of PT.

[jaichind]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/26/thaksin-to-return-to-thailand-in-august-after-15-years-in-exile

"Thaksin to return to Thailand in August after 15 years in exile"

Very likely related to recent PT maneuvers to gain power

[jaichind]

Bangkok Post reports that PT to form a coalition that would exclude MFP and UTN.  Note that with Prayut Chan-o-cha retiring UTN is a dead party walking so their MPs will defect to PT or other pro-military parties anyway so there is no need to share spoils with UTN.  Note that Malay Muslim PT splinter PP who also holds the Speaker position will also be part of this coalition.



https://twitter.com/BangkokPostNews/status/1686198539196735488

[jaichind]

PT PM candidate Srettha Thavisin just said that his government will not touch the lese majeste law which should be enough at this stage to get the Senate and most pro-military parties to back him.  PT successfully used MFP as the "Bad Cop" to get the Senate and pro-military parties to fall in line.   He now has to deal with pro-MFP protests once MFP is formally dumped and a PT government formed.

[jaichind]

https://apnews.com/article/thailand-politics-new-coalition-pheu-thai-d9da3ab16cb14533039eff4ae6c7eb34

"Populist party and member of outgoing administration will try to form Thailand’s next government"

PT officially dumps MFP and will ally with pro-military parties. PT held a press conference with BJT which is an old pro-royalist PT splinter to announce this. 

[jaichind]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/thai-court-clears-legal-hurdle-072507138.html

"Thailand to Hold PM Vote Next Week as New Bloc Eyes Power"

Now some legal hurdles has been removed there will be a vote next week for PM. PT's Thavisin seems to have wrapped up getting support from most pro-military parties and the pro-military Senate while MFP has announced that they will vote against Thavisin

[PSOL]

If MFP plays their cards right and engages in massive mudslinging, they could win an absolute majority next election as Shinawatra’s vehicle is now drinking the poisoned chalice of government with their prior enemies. Given as the Thai economy is going through some rough patches and how volatile this coalition is, s•••ing on it and conducting a motion of no-confidence to remove them before global economic conditions get better is the number one priority.

[jaichind]

If MFP plays their cards right and engages in massive mudslinging, they could win an absolute majority next election as Shinawatra’s vehicle is now drinking the poisoned chalice of government with their prior enemies. Given as the Thai economy is going through some rough patches and how volatile this coalition is, s•••ing on it and conducting a motion of no-confidence to remove them before global economic conditions get better is the number one priority.

I agree economic performance under the new PT government will be critical.  The anti-military wave in 2023 was mostly about the poor economic record of Thailand during COVID followed by an inflationary surge in 2022.  All signs are that the tourism industry is finally coming back and most estimates are that Thailand's GDP growth in 2023 2024 and 2025 are solid (3%-3.5%).  Of course if the economy does not recover as expected then PT is going to be in trouble in 2027

[jaichind]

https://apnews.com/article/thailand-politics-thaksin-return-parliament-vote-705f9e9b3c7c26dba2e3322985088d64

"Real estate tycoon Srettha Thavisin wins vote to become Thailand’s 30th prime minister"

Real estate tycoon Srettha Thavisin’s victory, with 482 votes out of 727 lawmakers present

This means Thavisin most likely won over 150 out of 250 Senators

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/thailands-jailed-ex-pm-thaksin-hospitalised-after-return-exile-police-2023-08-23/

"Thailand's billionaire ex-PM Thaksin taken to hospital on first night in jail"

Thaksin returned to Thailand and was taken to jail to serve his prison term.  Then he was immediately taken to the hospital/  Look for a royal pardon very soon.

[jaichind]

No sign so far of pro-MFP mass protests that were promised if PT teams up with the pro-military parties.

I think PT successfully defanged both MFP and pro-military forces by doing a "good cop bad cop" routine on both sides.

PT to pro-military parties: Look, these MFP guys are out of control, and at any minute they might mobilize massive crowds if they do not get their way.  It is best that you hand over as much power as possible to us so we can deal with these out-of-control crazies.

PT to MFP: Look, these pro-military guys are out for blood.  They are looking for any chance to label you guys as traitors to the King and ban as well as disband your party.  It is best for you all to keep a low profile for now so I can work to protect you all. Who knows how far pro-military guys will go to protest their interests?

[Keep Calm and ...]

If MFP plays their cards right and engages in massive mudslinging, they could win an absolute majority next election ...

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1695097513773298054
https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1695096202566754467
https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1695098858202914949

[Farmlands]

If MFP plays their cards right and engages in massive mudslinging, they could win an absolute majority next election.

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1695098858202914949

That's fantastic to see, and should come as little surprise. People, especially ones who only now got their voice back, don't like having their democratic decisions surpressed by unelected uniformed men and immediate broken promises. Best of hope for all the MFP freedom fighters in the times that may lie ahead before 2028.

[jaichind]

The 2023 election does show the power of the rural factional vote.  PT has between now and 2027 consolidated its base in the Northeast via populist measures and added to it the rural factional vote that went to the pro-military parties via patronage to try to deal take on MFP in 2027.  The good news for PT is they have 4 years to do this.