Citizen James
James42
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,540
Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -2.78
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« on: February 15, 2007, 05:43:52 PM » |
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Consider me skeptical.
I know that online gambling on elections seems to be the new 'cool' form of exotic betting, but can it really be a valid predictor of human behavior?
The odds are not based on the analysis of 'professionals' (if such people actually exist - human behavior tends to have a chaotic tendency. Things can change quickly on small initial events). They are simply a reflection as to how much money has been wagered by various bettors on each candidate.
I think that these results are more a reflection of fad-chasing and a lagging indicator of international public opinion, not a reflection of the actual likelyhood of any actual events happening.
In short, I consider sites like tradesports a novelty rather than a useful analytical tool.
What say you?
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