2024 ROC Prez and Legislative elections Jan 13th

[jaichind]

DPP outperformed on the Aborigine vote winning 23.0% and 22.1% in the Plains and Mountious zones respectively to win 2 out of 6 seats. DPP being in power for 8 years did affect shifting this bloc toward the DPP plus the DPP has an incumbency advantage here.  That was my guess right before the election but I shifted my guess for  Mountious zones betting on better Pan-Blue vote coordination.  I should gone with my hunch a couple of days before the election.

[jaichind]

The only two real outstanding district seats left that could change are

New Taipei 7th
KMT    46.18
DPP     44.68 (incumbent of sex tapes fame)

Taoyuan 2nd
KMT   48.33
DPP    47.51 (incumbent)

If KMT keeps the leads in both seats then the KMT is the SLP.  If that is what takes place then it is ironic that all those DPP MP 羅致政(Lo Chih-Cheng) made a massive difference in letting the KMT become a SLP in an election where it is a KMT underperformance election night.

[jaichind]

CEC (with around 97% of the vote)

DPP Lai    40.2
KMT Hou  33.4
TPP Ko     26.4

PR

DPP         36.3
KMT        34.5
TPP         22.0
NPP          2.6

So I got DPP Lai's vote share on the nose.  I underestimated TPP Ko's ability to eat into pro-KMT votes.

[Mike88]

What's the seat count at this point?

[jaichind]

What's the seat count at this point?

Right now pretty much this

The count in district seats is getting a bit more favorable for KMT.

Right now the best guess on results are

District: KMT 36  pro-KMT Ind. 1  DPP 36
Aborihgine: KMT 3 pro-KMT Ind. 1 DPP 2
PR: KMT 13 DPP 13 TPP 8

Which results in:
KMT 52 pro-KMT Ind. 2 DPP 51 TPP 8

So KMT does become SLP by one seat which is an outperformance.

If someone told me that DPP Lai would beat KMT Hou by 6%-7% I would say DPP SLP for sure with a reasonable chance at DPP+ majority.

[jaichind]

KMT most likely swept Taoyuan legislative seats 6-0 and Taichung legitimate seats 6-2.  This shows what de facto KMT-TPP consolidation can do.

These results show that TPP Ko was right that a Ko-Hou ticket has a higher chance of winning than a Hou-Ko ticket.  However, the Hou-Ko gap and legislative results in key areas show that a Hou-Ko ticket most likely would have won, contrary to Ko's claim that a Hou-Ko ticket cannot win.

[Mike88]

So, KMT will certainly fail to win a majority, and is neck and neck with DPP. TPP would support DPP, right?

[jaichind]

So, KMT will certainly fail to win a majority, and is neck and neck with DPP. TPP would support DPP, right?

If you go by what TPP said before the election, at least in the legislature, they will support a KMT Speaker.

[Mike88]

So, KMT will certainly fail to win a majority, and is neck and neck with DPP. TPP would support DPP, right?

If you go by what TPP said before the election, at least in the legislature, they will support a KMT Speaker.

Hmm... right. From what I understand, they label themselves as center-left, but are essentially an "anti-incumbency" party and as DPP is the incumbent, they are against them.

[Logical]

So who will the pan Blue side blame for this entirely preventable defeat?

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

So who will the pan Blue side blame for this entirely preventable defeat?

Probably Ko.

[jaichind]

So who will the pan Blue side blame for this entirely preventable defeat?

Head of the TPP PR list 黃珊珊(Huang Shan-Shan) who is part of the anti-KMT faction (despite her Deep Blue background) within the TPP.  She was key in getting TPP Ko to renege on the KMT-TPP Hou-Ko deal back in Nov.  To be fair the KMT is doing this mostly to try to split and weaken TPP internally by creating battles between pro-KMT and anti-KMT factions.

[jaichind]

So, KMT will certainly fail to win a majority, and is neck and neck with DPP. TPP would support DPP, right?

If you go by what TPP said before the election, at least in the legislature, they will support a KMT Speaker.

Hmm... right. From what I understand, they label themselves as center-left, but are essentially an "anti-incumbency" party and as DPP is the incumbent, they are against them.

In ROC it is not about Right vs Left but Blue (accommodation with PRC potentially leading to unification) vs Green (hostility toward PRC and pushing toward independence).  It is similar to Northern Ireland where historically it is not about Right vs Left but Unionist vs Nationalist.

TPP campaigned as a light Blue party with most of its cadres and officeholders having a pan-Blue background.  TPP is socially liberal which would make it closer to DPP which is nominally socially liberal. 

To be fair DPP Prez elect Lai is socially more conservative than DPP Prez Tsai.  In that sense, on social issues, TPP is closer to DPP.  On the other hand, a large part of the DPP Southern base of older voters are very socially conservative, and if it was not for the PRC issue would vote for KMT. 

It is because of this that the DPP wants to keep the PRC front and center because if politics were to become about social issues the KMT can use social issues to put a wedge into the DPP base.

[jaichind]

CEC (with around 99% of the vote)

DPP Lai    40.1
KMT Hou  33.5
TPP Ko     26.4

PR

DPP         36.2
KMT        34.6
TPP         22.1
NPP          2.6

[jaichind]

The only two real outstanding district seats left that could change are

New Taipei 7th
KMT    46.18
DPP     44.68 (incumbent of sex tapes fame)

Taoyuan 2nd
KMT   48.33
DPP    47.51 (incumbent)

If KMT keeps the leads in both seats then the KMT is the SLP.  If that is what takes place then it is ironic that all those DPP MP 羅致政(Lo Chih-Cheng) made a massive difference in letting the KMT become a SLP in an election where it is a KMT underperformance election night.

Taoyuan 2nd called for KMT.  It is KMT 46.05 to DPP 44.83 in New Taipei 7th.  It is all but official.   DPP MP 羅致政(Lo Chih-Cheng) sex tapes flips SLP from DPP to KMT.

[jaichind]

New Taipei 7th also called for KMT.  DPP MP 羅致政(Lo Chih-Cheng)  loses due to the sex tapes that came out and hands the KMT SLP status 52-51 over DPP.

[jaichind]

In his victory speech, DPP Prez elect Lai said he would work to preserve the status under the framework of the Constitution ROC (a document that states that Taiwan is a part of China and that ROC is the legal government of China.)   That is not how he feels but he had to run on a light Green line to align with DPP Prez Tsai and his speech had to reflect that.  I suspect he also got pressure from the USA to say something like this.

[jaichind]

All done

DPP Lai    40.0
KMT Hou  33.5
TPP Ko     26.5

PR

DPP         36.2
KMT        34.6
TPP         22.1
NPP          2.6

[Logical]

Seat map courtesy of Wikipedia. Darker color indicates a gain. The two independents lean KMT.

[jaichind]

Pan-Green vote in 2000 2008 and 2024 where the vote share was similar and represented its core. 2000 and 2024 were 3-way races where due to 2 Pan-Blue candidates the DPP vote was pushed to its core.  2008 the DPP was in the dumps and its vote was also pretty much its core.

The similar regional vote share shows the relative continuity of the DPP core vote.  DPP Prez Tsai had a Pan-Blue background and can fetch light Blue and non-aligned Youth votes in 2012 2016 and 2020.  This time most of that vote that we were able to fetch went over to TPP Ko.  Some of that vote would vote DPP over KMT but is not part of the core DPP vote.


                                                                     2000         2008         2024
Fujian Province
  連江縣(Lienchiang County)  (Blue+38)              2.1            4.8          10.5   
  金門縣(Kinmen County)      (Blue+37)              3.5             4.9          10.0

Taiwan Province
花蓮縣(Hualien County)        (Blue+20)            21.6           22.5          24.8
臺東縣(Taitung County)        (Blue+18)            23.4           26.7          27.4
新竹縣(Hsinchu County)       (Blue+12)            27.1           26.0          27.4
苗栗縣(Miaoli County)          (Blue+11)            28.0           29.0          28.8
基隆市(Keelung City)            (Blue+7)             31.3           32.3          34.8
南投縣(Nantou County)         (Blue+5)             34.8           38.0          35.9
澎湖縣(Penghu County)         (Blue+4)             37.1           42.1          38.6  
新竹市(Hsinchu City)             (Blue+3)             34.8          35.3           34.8
彰化縣(Changhua County)      (Even)                40.4          42.4           38.1
嘉義市(Chiayi City)                (Green+4)          47.3           47.6          43.3  
雲林縣(Yunlin County)           (Green+6)           46.3          51.5           44.5
宜蘭縣(Yilan County)             (Green+6)          47.6           48.6           44.7
屏東縣(Pingtung County)        (Green+6)          45.7           50.3          47.5
嘉義縣(Chiayi County)            (Green+8)         49.8            54.4          47.7


Special Municipalities
臺北市(Taipei City)                (Blue+4)            37.9            37.0           38.1
桃園市(Taoyuan City)            (Blue+4)            33.9             35.4          35.3
新北市(New Taipei City)         (Blue+1)            37.3            38.9           38.6  
臺中市(Taichung City)            (Blue+1)            37.1            40.0           37.6
高雄市(Kaohsiung City)          (Green+6)         46.8            49.8            48.9
臺南市(Tainan City)               (Green+11)        51.0            53.3            51.0

Total                                                             39.9            41.6           40.1

[jaichind]

Looking at the results I would say

a) If it was a DPP Lai vs KMT Hou with Ko being neutral KMT would win 52-48
b) If it was a Hou-Ko ticket then it would beat DPP Lai 55-45
c) If it was a Ko-Hou ticket then it would beat DPP Lai 57-43

[jaichind]

History of PR vote by bloc (since 2008 when the current system of a separate PR vote started) 

                          2024        2020       2016       2012        2008
Deep Blue           0.7%         2.2%       6.3%      1.5%       4.0%
KMT                 34.6%        33.4%      26.9%   44.6%      51.2%
Light Blue           0.5%         4.2%      10.2%     6.7%        2.2%
TPP                  22.1%        11.2%
Light Green        5.0%        10.3%       3.2%      3.4%        1.9%
DPP                  36.2%       34.0%      44.1%    34.6%      36.9%
Deep Green        1.0%         4.8%        9.4%      9.2%        3.8%

Note for NPP, I counted them as Deep Green in 2016 but as Light Green in 2020 and after.  Just like I would count PFP as Deep Blue before 2005 but Light Blue after 2005.

[jaichind]

Turnout fell from 2020's 74.9% to 71.9%.  In a 3 way race, you would think turnout would rise.  Some of it was the anti-Han youth vote surge falling back but the overperformance by TPP Ko and the TPP PR vote shows that the youth vote turnout falloff was not that large.  DPP holding on to its core vote indicates that the turnout falloff is also some marginal Pan-Blue voters not turning out due to being convinced that DPP Lai was going to win given the split of the Pan-Blue vote.

[It’s so Joever]

Can someone explain Taiwanese political geography to me? I’ve always been curious but am having trouble piecing it together.

[Zinneke]

Why is the thread title ROC and not Taiwan?