Pennsylvania Statewide Discussion

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

https://twitter.com/chwolfson/status/1722356136584560918

The one area that voted Innamorato-Carluccio: baby r u doin ok

[wbrocks67]

According to my calculations, McCaffery actually won Pennsylvania minus Philadelphia by about half a percentage point. Trump won it by over 6 points in 2020, and Oz won it by a little over a point. If these trends carry over to next year that is bad news for Trump regardless of any issues Biden has in Philly.

Honestly, turnout in Philly wasn't that bad. It's all in context. Is Philly still one of the worst - if not the worst - turnout rates of the state? Yep, which is a problem in itself, but compared to itself, the city had better raw turnout than the last mayoral election (2019) and had 100K+ more raw turnout than the last off year PASC election (2021)

But you're overall point stands - the trends for Republicans in the Philly suburbs are just disastrous, there's really no spinning them. Montgomery County trending left again when the R was literally from here nearly says it all, and Bucks being D+11 after all of the talk of it getting redder is an extremely bad sign for Rs. Trumpism was basically rejected everywhere in Bucks on Tuesday in all forms.

[wbrocks67]

2015: 26%
2017: 20%
2019: 29%
2021: 22%
2023: ~31%

Philly turnout will actually be higher than even 2019 when Trump was in office, and the highest % turnout for an off year election since 2003 - no small feat given its a Biden presidency too. Obviously again, not a great number isolated by itself, but in the context of philly elections, pretty substantial

https://twitter.com/micahmj11/status/1722352821335409127

[Nhoj]

https://twitter.com/chwolfson/status/1722356136584560918

The one area that voted Innamorato-Carluccio: baby r u doin ok

That precinct seems to be the parts of the village of trafford that is in Allegheny, which is about 61 people. Maybe its some really quirky people who just vote for anyone with a italian surname.

[jvmh2009]

2015: 26%
2017: 20%
2019: 29%
2021: 22%
2023: ~31%

Philly turnout will actually be higher than even 2019 when Trump was in office, and the highest % turnout for an off year election since 2003 - no small feat given its a Biden presidency too. Obviously again, not a great number isolated by itself, but in the context of philly elections, pretty substantial

https://twitter.com/micahmj11/status/1722352821335409127

Trump was the president in 2017 too but the turnout was the worst in the list.

[Nyvin]

2015: 26%
2017: 20%
2019: 29%
2021: 22%
2023: ~31%

Philly turnout will actually be higher than even 2019 when Trump was in office, and the highest % turnout for an off year election since 2003 - no small feat given its a Biden presidency too. Obviously again, not a great number isolated by itself, but in the context of philly elections, pretty substantial

https://twitter.com/micahmj11/status/1722352821335409127

Could Shapiro's automatic voter registration order be a reason for this?   It seems like it might have helped quite a bit.

[wbrocks67]

2015: 26%
2017: 20%
2019: 29%
2021: 22%
2023: ~31%

Philly turnout will actually be higher than even 2019 when Trump was in office, and the highest % turnout for an off year election since 2003 - no small feat given its a Biden presidency too. Obviously again, not a great number isolated by itself, but in the context of philly elections, pretty substantial

https://twitter.com/micahmj11/status/1722352821335409127

Could Shapiro's automatic voter registration order be a reason for this?   It seems like it might have helped quite a bit.

Hm its possible, but I also think it was implemented so late in the election cycle (before the cut off of voter registration) that I'm not sure how much of an impact it had. I'm hoping the Inqurier or someone does an article on where turnout was the best in Philly, like they did in the primary. I'm very curious if black wards turned out for Parker, or if this was more of a white liberal uptick closer to Center City.

[Mexican Wolf]

I find it kind of interesting that McCaffery was the only Dem running for court statewide to lose Erie (albeit narrowly), while also being the only one besides Beck to win in Berks.

[wbrocks67]

I find it kind of interesting that McCaffery was the only Dem running for court statewide to lose Erie (albeit narrowly), while also being the only one besides Beck to win in Berks.

From what I can tell, it looks like the GOP/Carluccio actually outspent/out-aired Dems in Erie in the PASC race, so that seems to be why from what I can gleam. Because otherwise, Dems did great in Erie in every other race except for PASC.

Similar in Lackawanna, where even Matt Wolf won by like 21, while McCaffery by 16. Must've been spots where Ds did not spend as much - I think they likely focused a ton in SEPA and Allegheny, which is why I think Berks really overperformed for Ds. Same with Northampton and Lehigh performing really well for Ds too - and then the same for the Allegheny ring counties that also did pretty well for Ds.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Very interesting and well-written article about what sort of implications these races could have for 2024-

https://pennsylvaniapowered.substack.com/p/pennsylvania-supreme-court-postmortem

[wbrocks67]

Very interesting and well-written article about what sort of implications these races could have for 2024-

https://pennsylvaniapowered.substack.com/p/pennsylvania-supreme-court-postmortem

Great article (he's a great follow on Twitter too)

The point being here is that the Republicans have lost the plot in PA numerous times over the last few years. It's getting very hard to believe that suddenly the tide is going to turn for them just because Trump is on the ballot. The article makes the point well too that, yes, Trump voters who didn't vote this year will be back next year. But the GOP also still has a LOT of room left to fall in numerous counties in PA, and even the ones that were looking good for them (Berks especially) were awful this year. Given the trends of PA and where people are, it's not looking great for the GOP. They're maxing out, and they still have more room to fall in vote-rich SEPA.

This ain't 2021 anymore. Comparing Brobson's performance in SEPA especially to Carluccio's is just night and day.

No one is saying Biden is winning PA by 7 next year, but I'm sorry, with 3M+ votes cast this year, you can't look at this state and say Trump is up by 4 right now.

[wbrocks67]

I don't expect Ds to do this again in 2024 (ignore Erie), but it is quite interesting that they did *extremely* well in all the specific places they targeted with their $$$

Also pretty sad for the GOP that they literally outspent Ds 3:1 in Erie and... just barely won.

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1724612749718892994

[wbrocks67]

Also, despite a concerted effort to get more Republicans to vote by mail this year, it barely made a dent.

2022 VBM: 78.4% Fetterman, 19.1% Oz
2023 VBM: 78.0% McCaffery, 22.0% Carluccio

[wbrocks67]

Overall statewide turnout is looking to be about 36%, the highest at least this century for an off year election.

On the higher side was:
Bucks - 43%
Chester - 43%
Montgomery - 42%
Allegheny - 41%
Delaware - 38%

[Duke of York]

Overall statewide turnout is looking to be about 36%, the highest at least this century for an off year election.

On the higher side was:
Bucks - 43%
Chester - 43%
Montgomery - 42%
Allegheny - 41%
Delaware - 38%

Impressive. Wish Philadelphia was higher though. Would have raised the margins for the judicial elections even higher but a win is a win so im not complaining.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Overall statewide turnout is looking to be about 36%, the highest at least this century for an off year election.

On the higher side was:
Bucks - 43%
Chester - 43%
Montgomery - 42%
Allegheny - 41%
Delaware - 38%

Impressive. Wish Philadelphia was higher though. Would have raised the margins for the judicial elections even higher but a win is a win so im not complaining.

I'm actually looking at it the opposite way: if we can get this kind of turnout in the collar counties around Philadelphia in 2024, we may not need to rely as heavily on Philly and Pittsburgh to deliver a statewide victory. Of course you want to maximize turnout in Philly as much as possible, but it seems like the higher the turnout in those collar counties, the more favorable it is for Dems.

[wbrocks67]

Overall statewide turnout is looking to be about 36%, the highest at least this century for an off year election.

On the higher side was:
Bucks - 43%
Chester - 43%
Montgomery - 42%
Allegheny - 41%
Delaware - 38%

Impressive. Wish Philadelphia was higher though. Would have raised the margins for the judicial elections even higher but a win is a win so im not complaining.

I'm actually looking at it the opposite way: if we can get this kind of turnout in the collar counties around Philadelphia in 2024, we may not need to rely as heavily on Philly and Pittsburgh to deliver a statewide victory. Of course you want to maximize turnout in Philly as much as possible, but it seems like the higher the turnout in those collar counties, the more favorable it is for Dems.

Yep- you of course want Philly to be high as possible, but there should be a massive concerted effort in SEPA this time around, even moreso than this year or before. The campaigns clearly targeted SEPA specifically this go around, and it not only had huge effects for the 4 collar counties, but outlining counties like Berks as well.

[Duke of York]

Overall statewide turnout is looking to be about 36%, the highest at least this century for an off year election.

On the higher side was:
Bucks - 43%
Chester - 43%
Montgomery - 42%
Allegheny - 41%
Delaware - 38%

Impressive. Wish Philadelphia was higher though. Would have raised the margins for the judicial elections even higher but a win is a win so im not complaining.

I'm actually looking at it the opposite way: if we can get this kind of turnout in the collar counties around Philadelphia in 2024, we may not need to rely as heavily on Philly and Pittsburgh to deliver a statewide victory. Of course you want to maximize turnout in Philly as much as possible, but it seems like the higher the turnout in those collar counties, the more favorable it is for Dems.

Yep- you of course want Philly to be high as possible, but there should be a massive concerted effort in SEPA this time around, even moreso than this year or before. The campaigns clearly targeted SEPA specifically this go around, and it not only had huge effects for the 4 collar counties, but outlining counties like Berks as well.

i agree with this.

[wbrocks67]

Because of the recent court decision on now being able to count mail-in ballots that had a missing or wrong date on them, Philly ended up counting an additional 1625 VBMs, which broke 90-10 for McCaffery. His lead is now over 7.00% statewide:

McCaffery (D): 1,650,459 -- 53.51%
Carluccio (R): 1,434,195 -- 46.49%

Lead - McCaffery: +216,264 (7.02%)

Since the state hasn't certified yet, still looking to see if every county will do the same. Pretty crazy though that 1625 ballots were going to be discarded simply for just missing a date or another small user error.

[wbrocks67]

McCaffery won PA-07 by 10% and PA-08 by 2.6%

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1729530646987477471

[wbrocks67]

Looks like counting is just about done. Dems actually had their best overall lead in the Superior Court race (+7.10% overall), a smidge above McCaffery's margin (+7.04%.) Wolf was the worst performing D, which isn't surprising since last I checked, he basically spent nearly nothing and was much less funded than McCaffery, Beck and Lane. Basically he got carried a lot by the other 3. There was also a bit of an undervote though, too. Nearly 3.09M votes in the PASC race, but just over 3.00M in the Superior Court race and 3.05M in Commonwealth. So a good amount of people who did not vote in all 3 races.

Justice of the Supreme Court
McCaffery (D): 1,652,113 — 53.52%
Carluccio (R): 1,434,945 — 46.48%
Lead: McCaffery +7.04%

Judge of the Superior Court
Beck (D): 1,572,023 — 28.03%
Lane (D): 1,431,550 — 25.52%  [total: 53.55%]
Battista (R): 1,353,555 — 24.13%
Smail (R): 1,251,817 — 22.32%  [total: 46.45%]
Lead: Democrats +7.10%

Judge of the Commonwealth Court
Wolf (D): 1,602,116 — 52.45%
Martin (R): 1,452,330 — 47.55%
Lead: Wolf +4.90%

[wbrocks67]

Estimates for minority voters this year:

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1737485425181118860

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Estimates for minority voters this year:

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1737485425181118860

But I thought black voters were shifting Republican because they liked Trump now because of his indictments?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

"But all of the crosstabs with sample sizes of 40 people are saying..."

- A certain trio consisting of blue, yellow, and green avs we all know and love.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Any chance Rs can win back the House in 2024?