East Timorese Elections, 2007

[ilikeverin]

East Timor is scheduled to have presidential elections on April 9 of this year, and parliamentary elections at some unknown time (unknown to Wikipedia, anyway).  Hooray!

Xanana Gusmão has announced repeatedly he is not going to run for President, so the much less entertainingly-named Prime Minister and 1996 Nobel Peace Prize laureate José Ramos Horta has announced his candidacy.  Apparently Xanana has endorsed Horta for the position, so it's probably going to be a runaway victory for the Prime Minister

Polling is obviously a bit spotty, what with the country having a per capita GDP of about $700 and all.

[Jens]

Let us just hope that the elections will be peacefull.

[Hash]

Bah, chances are East Timor will become a democratic nation in the style of Namibia or Mozambique, where the party that won independence controls government for atleast... some time, in the style of SWAPO or FRELIMO.

[ag]

Actually, I am not entirely sure.  Horta has had a complicated relationship w/ Fretelin recently, hasn't he? Is he going to run as a Fretelin candidate, or as independent? At the very least, none of the articles about his candidacy said anything abotu Fretelin.

[Jens]

Bah, chances are East Timor will become a democratic nation in the style of Namibia or Mozambique, where the party that won independence controls government for atleast... some time, in the style of SWAPO or FRELIMO.

That might happen. On the other hand, the other Lusophone microstates, São Tomé and Cape Verde has actually witnessed the downfall of the revolutionary movements in democratic elections (Guinea-Bissau too, but everything collapses in that country. They could really use a leader of Amilcar Cabrals capacity)

[Hash]

Well, Cape Verde got a new party after around 15-20 years of PAICG, and in Guinea-Bissau, all hell broke loose. But I still predict the Fretelin will dominate for a good 10 years before a new party wins.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I had the pleasure of being in a seminar with Jose Ramos Horta (amazing man, great sense of humour)- I think he's considered such a unifying figure in Timor Leste that he needed worry about his occaisonally shaky relationship with Fretlin.

[ilikeverin]

Whee for domestic insecurity!  East Timor has requested of Indonesia that Indonesia close their borders with the country... to help East Timor track down bandits or some such.  Said bandits are led by Major Alfredo Reinado, who eluded capture today by a mostly Australian force.  Xanana is reportedly offering lenient terms if Reinado turns himself in, but Reinado has remained defiant.  Everyone is of course afraid that this might hurt the elections to be held next month, but we'll see.

[ilikeverin]

According to the BBC, everyone who is not Jose Ramos Horta is like "OMG THERES FRAUD HERE PEEPZ"  and Fretilin is like "wut stfu n00b theres no fraud" and the U.N. is like "hey quiet down over there" and the East Timorese people are like "lolz riot time!" and Australia's like "g'day mate where's that rebel leader fellow" and the rebel is like "nyah nyah nyah" and Xanana's like "im still the best".

[ilikeverin]

Okay, better update this time.  The candidates for President:

Prime Minister Jose Ramos-Horta (independent?  member of Xanana's new political party, National Congress for East Timorese Reconstruction?) - frontrunner, BFF with Xanana, has complained about Fretilin vote intimidation
Francisco "Lu'Olo" Guterres (Fretilin) - has a small chance, will probably go into the runoff, Marxist
<gap in support>
Fernando "Lasama" de Araujo (Democratic Party) - darkhorse... think Francois Bayrou, from what I've read, likely to get a lot of the youth vote, has expressed fears about manipulation
<gap in support>
Lucia Lobato (Social Democrat Party) - only female in the race, cousin of first President (back in the 1970s-era President), has expressed fears about manipulation
<gap in support?  the rest of the candidates are lumped together>
Francisco Xavier do Amaral (Timorese Social Democratic Association) - ran in 2002 as token opposition candidate, founded Fretilin but has obviously had a bit of a falling-out
Joao Carrascalao (Democratic Timorese Party) - has expressed fears about manipulation
Avelino Coelho da Silva (Timorese Socialist Party) -
Manuel Tilman (Sons of the Mountain Warriors) -

If no one candidate gets above 50% of the vote, a runoff will be held in a month.  As of now, it appears that that will be the case.

Most candidates have been complaining about vote intimidation and such by the ruling Fretilin party, which seems to be nervous about giving up its hold on power.  Some Fretilin thugs have apparently been going around some of the cities in the East, threatening those that would not vote for Fretilin.  This mostly seems to be backfiring.  Fretilin support is concentrated in the East, while voting in the West is more up for grabs, due to the recent rebellions and such in that area.

The district to watch is Lautem, according to some.

Also, the legislative elections are due to be held this summer... June or July.  One source of mine says June 30.  Xanana will probably try to lead his new party to success in these elections; many believe he seeks to be Prime Minister, a post that has much more power than the largely ceremonial presidency.  He and Ramos-Horta seem to be working together closely to make this a reality.

You can read more here, here, here, here, here, and a bunch here.  There is nothing involving East Timor here or here, but I love them so I must share them with the world!

[ilikeverin]

I will continue talking to myself.

The election seems to have gone without any large hitch.  The only incident that's been reported as of yet is a couple of drunken soldiers firing their guns into the air during a traffic stop.  Other than that, the only reported problem is a lack of ballot papers due to a heavy demand by Timorese voters.  Some in the district of Viqueque were unable to vote because extra ballot papers did not reach their voting facilities, due to their remoteness.  This has led to some debate about whether the voting hours should be extended or some sort of re-vote (in that area only) should be held.  However, this minor problem does not seem to chafe at the minds of any of the candidates nor any of the observers monitoring the election, and almost everyone seems to think the only downside to this is that results might be a little later than expected.  The deputy of the U.N. mission in East Timor has said that the election was conducted in a free and fair manner.  Some observers have reported especially high turnout among younger voters and women, a fact that could benefit Lasama de Araujo and Lucia Lobato respectively.  Porbably Lasama a bit more than Lucia.  (which is good, cuz I'm hoping for a Ramos-Horta/de Araujo runoff )

So, overall, good news to report

However, I cannot explain the following headline from CBS News:



How rude

[Gabu]

However, I cannot explain the following headline from CBS News:



How rude

That reminds me of the time I saw this math major whose course list showed him as registered in "REAL ANAL." (real analysis).

[ilikeverin]

Well, apparently the election wasn't as good as I had hoped.  Now 5 candidates are complaining and calling for a recount (which has supposedly been rejected by the elections board), including de Araujo.  Preliminary results look like this:

Guterres: 29%
Ramos-Horta: 23%
Araujo: 18.5%

Other candidates don't seem to be explicitly mentioned.  These results are quite different from early results, that put the top three candidates in a statistical dead heat at 23%.  The early results were mostly from the area around Dili.

Even Ramos-Horta has said there is some suspicion about the validity of the results.

The electoral commission also said that about 30% of the ballots are disputed (probably by the candidates).

Meanwhile, the UN and EU are like "stupid East Timor solve your own problems, mmph."

Oh, and legislative elections are officially set for June 30.

That reminds me of the time I saw this math major whose course list showed him as registered in "REAL ANAL." (real analysis).

Oh dear, are you sure he was not secretly a math major with a concentration in adult films?  I've heard those are common in British Columbia.

[Gabu]

Meanwhile, the UN and EU are like "stupid East Timor solve your own problems, mmph."

Nobody loves East Timor.

[minionofmidas]

Meanwhile, the UN and EU are like "stupid East Timor solve your own problems, mmph."

Nobody loves East Timor.

Certainly not the East TImorese.

[ilikeverin]

Well, the second round elections happened today.  Evidently all the opposition parties' threats came to naught; election judges said that there was nothing significantly wrong about the election, and they abided (abode?) by that decision.  Official results for the first round are available online.  I'll try making a few maps.

The second round is expected to be a victory for Ramos-Horta, as most of the minor candidates have pledged their support for him.  But we'll see.  Both candidates have promised to accept the results of the second round, which is good.

[ilikeverin]

Maps!  Maps!  Maps! (colors completely arbitrary)

Overall:



Yeah, so much for Viqueque being the "crucial district" in the election.

Guterres:



Did better in the east and outside the Dili "suburbs".

Ramos Horta:



Around the Dili area, mostly.  North coast.

Araujo:



West side.

Amaral:



Obviously strong central regional support.

I'll do the rest at a later date.  Enjoy!

[ilikeverin]

Results have Ramos-Horta with 69% over Guterres's 31%.  Guterres has conceded defeat, and the election was "peaceful and free of intimidation".  This is clearly a Very Good Thing.

But, meanwhile, more maps!  The scales change for each map, so keep your eyes peeled.

Carrascalao:



He got the lowest finish, obviously.

Coelho:



Very localized candidate.

Lobato:



Appeals to the west and the east but not the middle.

Tilman:



The anti-Lobato?

[ilikeverin]

So, yeah, Ramos-Horta won (obviously), basically by securing all the votes that didn't go to Guterres in the first round.  The election commission only did second round by district using total number of votes, not percentage, and I'm too lazy to do all that formatting into an Excel file... so don't expect that for a while

But, guess what's tomorrow... PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS YAY!   The big battle is between Xanana's National Congress for the Reconstruction of East Timor and FRETILIN.  It's only expected that two more parties will get seats... the Democratic Party (de Araujo) and a coalition between the Social Democratic Party (Lobato) and the Timorese Social Democratic Association (do Amaral).  We'll see

[Hash]

2001 results

Revolutionary Front for an Independent East Timor  57.4 - 55
Democratic Party 8.7 - 7
Social Democratic Party 8.2 - 6
Timorese Social Democratic Association 7.8 - 6
Timorese Democratic Union 2.4 - 2
Timorese Nationalist Party 2.2 - 2
Association of Timorese Heroes 2.1 - 2
People's Party of Timor 2.0 - 2
Christian Democratic Party  2.0 - 2
Socialist Party of Timor  1.8 - 1
Liberal Party 1.1 - 1
Christian Democratic Party of Timor  0.7 - 1
Nonpartisan ? - 1

[ilikeverin]

XANANA IS PRIME MINISTER YAY!

(ahem, sorry; yeah, Fretilin won a plurality (27%) but most of the other parties were anti-Fretilin, so they all supported Xanana (they had something like 37 out of the 65 seats).  That made Fretilin angry, and after weeks of wrangling Jose Ramos-Horta named Xanana PM.  This has caused youths to throw rocks and set a building on fire, which is emo.  But, whatever the case, XANANA IS PRIME MINISTER YAY)

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

East Timor is an illegitimate nation.

[Jens]

XANANA IS PRIME MINISTER YAY!

(ahem, sorry; yeah, Fretilin won a plurality (27%) but most of the other parties were anti-Fretilin, so they all supported Xanana (they had something like 37 out of the 65 seats).  That made Fretilin angry, and after weeks of wrangling Jose Ramos-Horta named Xanana PM.  This has caused youths to throw rocks and set a building on fire, which is emo.  But, whatever the case, XANANA IS PRIME MINISTER YAY)

Really great news for Timor-Leste. let´s hope that Xanana and Ramos-Horta gets the space and peace to rebuild the country. GO Timor

[minionofmidas]

East Timor is an illegitimate nation.

All nations are by definition illegitimate.

[ilikeverin]

Dagnabbit, the BBC and others are reporting continued violence throughout the country, especially in those nasty eastern provinces (Baucau and Viqueque) that went like 2938749387% Fretilin in the presidential elections.  Gloom-and-doom people are predicting a return of the nasty violence of last year.  Thankfully, Fretilin is still maintaining the official line of wanting to exhaust all legal options, though it's not doing too much other than rhetoric to cool off tensions at the moment.

Two amusing things about the election:

1) Though the rioters seem to be fond of banners and slogans denouncing Jose Ramos-Horta as a puppet of Australia and the U.S., none seem willing to call Xanana bad names

2)

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I honestly can't decide whether I should take the "the United States is thus not a democracy thanks to FPTP" tack or the "even people from East Timor have a better concept of democracy than the United States, if 2000 is any indication" tack on this comment