Missouri electoral splits by 'region'

[RBH]

Here's the current regional map that I use:



Region population info

Southeast MO: 353912 (6%, orange)
St. Louis area: 1,846,486 (33%, red)
Central MO: 448198 (8%, green)
Kansas City: 912667 (16%, green)
South Central MO: 331144 (6%, skyblue)
Southwest MO: 751518 (13%, red)
West Central MO: 391438 (7%, yellow)
Northwest MO: 269446 (5%, orange)
Northeast MO: 290402 (5%, skyblue)

Their vote for the 2006 Senate race

SEMO: 54/43 Talent
STL: 56/42 McCaskill
CentMO: 52/44 Talent
KC: 59/38 McCaskill
SCMO: 53/42 Talent
SW MO: 59/37 Talent
WC MO: 51/45 Talent
NW MO: 48/47 Talent
NE MO: 53/44 Talent

The 2004 election

SEMO: 61/38 Bush
STL: 56/44 Kerry
CentMO: 59/41 Bush
KC: 54/45 Kerry
SCMO: 65/34 Bush
SW MO: 68/32 Bush
WC MO: 62/37 Bush
NW MO: 59/40 Bush
NE MO: 60/39 Bush

And for fun, the 1992 election

SEMO: 46/37 Clinton (16% Perot)
STL: 47/32 Clinton (21% Perot)
CentMO: 39/37 Clinton (24% Perot)
KC: 47/28 Clinton (24% Perot)
SCMO: 44/36 Clinton (19% Perot)
SW MO: 45/36 Bush (19% Perot)
WC MO: 38/34 Clinton (27% Perot)
NW MO: 41/32 Clinton (27% Perot)
NE MO: 45/34 Clinton (22% Perot)

In conclusion, West Central and Northwest Missouri were fond of Ross Perot. Sorta.

And some contrasting and comparing

Northeast MO v. Southwest MO
Southwest MO had higher percentages for raising the minimum wage, stem cell research, and opposing the Marriage 'Protection' Amendment.

And Northeast MO still has higher percentages for Democrats.

[muon2]

So I would interpret your results to mean that a statewide Democrat would need to keep the Republican under 60% in all the regions outside of KC and StL, and get a strong turnout in KC.

[RBH]

Claire barely missed out on a majority. So her margins of victory could be a sign of a good winning coalition.

STL didn't move in Claire's favor since Talent is from St. Louis.

In a Nixon/Blunt election, Nixon gets a better NEMO showing, better STL and CentMO showings too.

I should post the splits for the 1998 Senate race.

[RBH]

1998 Senate race:

SEMO: 56/42 Bond
STL: 49/47 Nixon
Cent Mo: 57/39 Bond
KC: 50/46 Bond
SCent Mo: 55/41 Bond
SW MO: 61/35 Bond
WC MO: 57/40 Bond
NW MO: 56/40 Bond
NE MO: 54/44 Bond
total: 53/44 Bond

2004 Senate race

SEMO: 63/36 Bond
STL: 53/46 Farmer
Cent Mo: 62/36 Bond
KC: 50/49 Farmer
SCent Mo: 66/33 Bond
SW MO: 70/29 Bond
WC MO: 64/35 Bond
NW MO: 63/36 Bond
NE MO: 65/34 Bond
total: 56/43 Bond

And the 2006 Auditor's race (Montee-Dem v. Thomas-Rep)

SEMO: 48.2/47.8 Montee
STL: 58/38 Montee
Cent Mo: 51/45 Montee
KC: 60/36 Montee
SCent Mo: 49/47 Thomas
SW MO: 57/39 Thomas
WC MO: 50/46 Montee
NW MO: 54/42 Montee
NE MO: 52/44 Montee
total: 53/43 Montee

[RBH]

No.

2004 Gubernatorial primaries, percentage of the vote from each region

Democratic

SEMO: 6%
STL: 35%
Cent MO: 8%
KC: 20%
SC MO: 5%
SW MO: 8%
WC MO: 7%
NW MO: 5%
NE MO: 6%

Republican

SEMO: 5%
STL: 24%
Cent MO: 9%
KC: 13%
SC MO: 7%
SW MO: 25%
WC MO: 9%
NW MO: 5%
NE MO: 4%

The percentages for the low turnout 2006 primaries were basically the same.

On the Democratic side:
SEMO: 9%
STL: 30%
Cent MO: 9%
KC: 18%
SC MO: 5%
SW MO: 6%
WC MO: 8%
NW MO: 6%
NE MO: 9%

On the Republican side
SEMO: 6%
STL: 23%
Cent MO: 9%
KC: 11%
SC MO: 8%
SW MO: 26%
WC MO: 8%
NW MO: 5%
NE MO: 4%

Credit County elections for helping boost the Dem votes in the small town areas. That, or general low turnout.