Montenegro General Election: June 11, 2023

[MRCVzla]

June 11 will be the date of the snap Parliamentary election. The ongoing (in functions) goverment led by URA Civic Movement' Dritan Abazović lost a no-confidence vote on August 2022 after being sworn just 5 months with the support of DPS who withdraw after Abazovic' cabinet adopted the draft about a Fundamental Agreement between Montenegro and the Serbian Orthodox Church what DPS through could damage the country' accession process to the EU. Before that in April 2022 another no-confidence vote caused the fall of the opposition technocratic government led by Zdravko Krivokapić.

As the news report above sayed, an attempt to form another technical cabinet failed, timing for the dissolution is kind of convenient for DPS but bad for the rest, as Presidential elections are happening this Sunday, and in case no candidate gets 50%+1, as runoff will be held on April 2 (a busy Sunday will be with the Finnish and Bulgarian parliamentary elections also being on the same day). No much opinion polls on the presidential election (the ones are found are before nominations' deadline) but Djukanović (who if wins may be even more time in power between PMs and Presidential terms as long as... Tito) maybe will be not the only favorite, his main rival seems to be Jakov Milatović, elected-mayor of Podgorica and minister in the Krivokapić cabinet who is one of the co-leaders of the new liberal-pro EU party Europe Now! (kinda similar story to Bulgaria's We Continue the Change) Milatović is stand-in for the other ES co-leader Milojko Spajić due to his Serbian citizenship, also running other opposition leaders like Democratic Front' Andrija Mandić from Democratic Montenegro' Aleksa Bečić, also running but very far for the runoff picture is DPS minor ally SDP presenting their 2018 candidate and former leader Draginja Vuksanović. For curiosity sake one of candidates is an internet personality named Jovan Radulović running as independent.

For June, will se how the opposition parties are constructing their alliances in order to repeat the 2020 result or DPS are consolidating their return to the Premiership.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1636734441388138496

[MRCVzla]

1st Round of Presidential election today, preliminary turnout at the hour polls closed is projected around 63-64%, similar turnout respect to 2018 or even 2013.

CDT parallel count (97.6% counted)
Djukanovic (DPS) 35.8%
Milatovic (Europe Now!) 28.7%
Mandic (DF/NSD) 18.8%
Becic (DCG) 11.2%

CeMI parallel count (90% of the polling stations counted)
Djukanovic (DPS) 35.4%
Milatovic (Europe Now!) 29.2%
Mandic (DF/NSD) 19.1%
Becic (DCG) 11.0%

President Djukanovic (leftist/pro-EU but with some authoritarian issues, +3 decades in power) wins plurality, but will likely face a runoff against Milatovic (centrist/pro-EU) in 2 weeks. Mandic (pro-Unionist an also with pro-Russian background) has just endorsed Milatovic in the runoff.

[MRCVzla]

100% in both parallel counts (CDT/CeMI):
Đukanović (DPS) 35.3% / 35.2%
Milatović (Europe Now!) 28.9% / 29.2%
Mandić (DF/NSD) 19.0% / 19.3%
Bečić (DCG) 11.3% / 10.9%
Vuksanović (SDP) 3.2% / 3.2%
Danilović (UCG) 1.5% / 1.4%
Radulović (Ind.) 0.8% / 0.8%

[MRCVzla]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1659169285560827904?s=20

This poll was done right at the start of the presentation of the candidate lists, the pro-Serb/pro-Russian DF broke up, PzP (Medojević) is running apart from Nova-DNP (DNP' Knezević is leading the list, Mandić goes 2nd). DCG (Bečić) and URA (ongoing PM Abazović) are running together, the DPS list (Together!) along with the Social Democrats, Liberals and one the Albanian minority parties (DUA/UDSh) is pressuming renovation in the post-Đukanović era led now by Daniel Živković, PES list is led by the other movement co-leader Milojko Spajić and according this polls has a very good prospect to win (allied with DCG/URA and or the former DF lists), the list also has members of Civis and United Montenegro and some dissident of Bosniak minority SPP who cancel their support. SDP and SNP (allied with micro party DEMOS) have a rough way to get over the 3% threshold. Apart of the main Bosniak minority list (historic DPS ally) who's above the 3%, the 2 Albanian minority list has well the Croatian minority party (HGI) are projected to get seats. Elections are in 2 weeks.

Oh, and Milatović presidency was inaugurated this week.

[MRCVzla]

Election today, polls has been just closed, no exit polls but neither a single opinion poll during campaign apart of the CeDem one during the list register, so a little bit blindless about a more PES surge or DPS resistance, impact of DF brokeup, Bečić/Abazović joint list or possibilities of other minor lists (SDP, SNP...) to pass the 3% threshold. Turnout at 19:00 is down 24% respect to 2020 (50.8% according NGO CeMI, 50.3% according fellow NGO CDT), as in the presidential election, both NGOs will provide the election night' parallel counts with the first projection at 21:00, Electoral Commission preliminary results will be released most likely tomorrow.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1667945653228523521


EDIT: Preliminary final turnout according CDT is 56.4% (20pp down to 2020)
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1667959688145563648

CeMI parallel count: https://www.izbori.cemi.org.me/
CDT website: https://www.cdtmn.org/
CDT livestream:

RTCG (public broadcaster) livestream (with CeMI data):

Gradska RTV Podgorica (capital city local broadcaster) livestream (with CDT data):

[MRCVzla]

First preliminary data is in (CeMI updated with 62% of the sample processed)
PES 25.5%
DPS/SD/LP 23.2%
ZBCG (Nova/DNP/RP) 15.3%
DCG/URA 12.5%
BS 7.0%
SNP/DEMOS 3.5%
------------------------------------------------
Pravda za sve (1) 2.7%
SDP 2.6%
Albanian forum 1.9% (albanian minority)
Preokret (2) 1.4%
Albanian alliance 1.3% (albanian minority)
Prava/Slobodna/DHP (3) 1.2%
PzP (former DF member) 0.7% (lol)
HGI 0.5% (croatian minority)
Mi možemo (4) 0.5%

(1) Civic list led by former Justice Minister Vladimir Leposavić
(2) Party with civic background led by Srđan Perić
(3) Also called National Coalition, right-wing pro-serb list led by Dejan Vukšić
(4) Another civic pro-european list led by Dragica Perović Ivanović, the only woman being list header overall.

https://www.vijesti.me/vijesti/politika/660667/preliminarni-podaci-pes-25-5-odsto-zajedno-23-4-zbcg-15-3-hrabro-se-broji-12-5

CDT with more than 78% of their sample processed said similar results, but the Bosniak Party above 8%, and SDP making it instead of SNP-led list.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1667971501281226752

[MRCVzla]

Parallel counts are processing very fast, CDT has finished its sample with 100%, SDP falls below 3%
Europe Now 26.0% (24)
DPS/SD/DUA/LP 23.0% (21)
ZBCG (NSD/DNP/RP) 15.1% (14)
DCG/URA 13.0% (12)
BS 6.8% (6)
SDP 2.9%
SNP/DEMOS 2.8
Justice for All 2.7%
Albanian Forum 1.7% (2)
Albanian Alliance 1.5% (1)
HGI 0.7% (1)

The CeMI one is more slow at 93.7% processed, SNP/Demos still above 3% in their projection:
Europe Now 25.6% (23)
DPS/SD/DUA/LP 23.9% (22)
ZBCG (NSD/DNP/RP) 14.8% (13)
DCG/URA 12.3% (11)
BS 6.8% (6)
SNP/DEMOS 3.2% (2)
Justice for All 2.9%
SDP 2.8%
Albanian Forum 2.0% (2)
Albanian Alliance 1.5% (1)
HGI 0.6% (1)

[MRCVzla]

Don't immediately see a path to a majority here. Expected Evropa Sad! to do much better. Clearly turnout plummeting didn't help them - on face value (take this with a grain of salt though) it looks like turnout among pro-Montenegrin voters was better than turnout among pro-Serb voters, while I would have expected the opposite after Milatovic' win. However, it could be good for democratic consolidation in Montenegro if ES has to build a slightly awkward coalition and doesn't have the opportunity to turn into a DPS 2.0 - or into a Montenegrin version of Serbian SNS.

Yep, majority talks could be complicated, the Demokrate-URA as well the non-serb minorities (the Bosniaks got benefited of the low turnout) are the most likely kingmakers, but in the case of DCG-URA seems (according to some montenegrin press) had a negative campaign against PES and PES also is very critic of the Abazović government, probably the reason why them are rulling out a coalition with at least the URA part of the alliance, as well they excluded DPS, not necessary good vibrations if the next government wants to have a stable pro-EU agenda and avoid being dependent of the pro-Russian serbs (Nova and DNP).

Also to watch in the next hours the battle of the 3% (translated depend on their strength to 2-3 seats) between SNP, SDP and the Leposavić list, all claim they passed (CeMI count gives 3 seats to SNP, SDP was very close on the CDT count) if they make it could also play a role on the talks despite being a) former DPS ally on SDP or b) pro-Russian/Serb links on SNP and Leposavić (SNP as well is part of Abazović' cabinet)

[MRCVzla]

Preliminary results by the Electoral Commission were published yesterday evening, SNP make it with 2 seats. Out of the country 25 municipalities, PES won in 8 including the capital Podgorica, DPS won in 9 including Nikšić (2nd most populated municipality), pro-Serb ZBCG won in Budva, Pljevlja and Zeta (new municipality split from Podgorica), SNP won in the town of Plužine meanwhile the minorities won in their strongholds, BS in Rožaje and Plav, Nik Gjeloshaj' Albanian Forum in Tuzi (other Podgorica split) and the Albanian Alliance led by FORCA' Genci Nimanbegu won in Ulcinj.

Europe Now 77206 (25.55%) - 24
DPS/SD/DUA/LP 70292 (23.26%) - 21
ZBCG (NSD/DNP/RP) 44603 (14.76%) - 13
DCG/URA 37777 (12.50%) - 11
BS 21415 (7.09%) - 6
SNP/DEMOS 9465 (3.13%) - 2
SDP 8752 (2.90%)
Justice for All 8370 (2.77%)
Albanian Forum 5671 (1.88%) - 2
Albanian Alliance 4520 (1.50%) - 1
HGI 2231 (0.74%) - 1

Turnout 305127/542468 (56.25%)
Official report in Montenegrin: https://dik.co.me/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/final-PRIVREMENI-REZULTATI-2023.pdf
Detailed preliminary results by municipality: https://rtcg.me/parlamentarniizbori/437551/pogledajte-rezultate-glasanja-po-opstinama.html
Interactive map of results by municipality (according CeMI parallel count at 99.9%): https://www.vijesti.me/vijesti/politika/660790/interaktivna-mapa-rezultati-lista-po-opstinama
Interactive map of turnout by municipality (also based on CeMI data): https://www.vijesti.me/vijesti/politika/660806/interaktivna-mapa-izlaznost-po-opstinama