Do you see any major shifts in the next decade?
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  Do you see any major shifts in the next decade?
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Author Topic: Do you see any major shifts in the next decade?  (Read 15058 times)
Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
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« on: March 25, 2007, 10:41:06 PM »

Starting with the 2010 mid-term election and going on toward the 2022 mid-term elections, do you see any major shifts in party faithful and party base in terms of regions of the country?  Such as, will the center stripe (Dakotas through Texas) and southeast become any less Republican, will the Southwest continue trending Democratic, will the Midwest and Northeast become less Democratic, will the West Coast become less Democratic?

I'm going to wait a bit before answering as I want to see other's responses, first.

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Padfoot
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« Reply #1 on: March 26, 2007, 02:31:26 AM »

I think we will definitely see a shift towards the Democrats in the Southwest for two reasons.

1. Social conservatism loses out to a libertarian streak.  The Religious Right are and things like the Patriot Act are beginning to irritate westerners.  The only issue here is the 2nd Amendment but there are plenty of pro-life Democrats so I don't foresee any problems rustling up some pro-gun ones.
2. The influx of Hispanics who generally vote Democratic.  There could actually be a very sudden shift if any sort of large scale amnesty bill is passed and Democrats immediately put together any kind of Hispanic GOTV effort.
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Smash255
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« Reply #2 on: March 26, 2007, 02:44:29 AM »

coastal areas of the upper south, Virginia and N.C.  Virginia is pretty much known as Northern VA is trending heavily Democratic.  North Carolina, I see a Democratic shift as well, and their has been a small one.  In this regard look at Metro Charlotte, and Raleigh especially, but also Greensboro, growing rather quickly and becoming more and more Democratic, large amount of northeastern transplants
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Reignman
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« Reply #3 on: March 30, 2007, 07:08:09 PM »

(trend; red for GOP and blue for Dems; green =  no trend)

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Alcon
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« Reply #4 on: March 31, 2007, 01:40:06 AM »
« Edited: March 31, 2007, 01:41:38 AM by Nighthawk »

Reignman,

Out of curiosity, why do you see the southeast trending that way so strongly?  Increased Hispanic vote portion?  Because New Mexico and Arizona seem very different to me otherwise.  It would make sense for GA & NC.

I'm also interested on hearing your logic on ME, which really surprised me by being red on the map.
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Reignman
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« Reply #5 on: March 31, 2007, 04:29:55 AM »

Reignman,

Out of curiosity, why do you see the southeast trending that way so strongly?  Increased Hispanic vote portion?  Because New Mexico and Arizona seem very different to me otherwise.  It would make sense for GA & NC.

I'm also interested on hearing your logic on ME, which really surprised me by being red on the map.

This first paragraph doesn't really make sense to me: I'm not sure what you're asking.

Maine's margin of Kerry over Bush is less than that of Gore and Bush in 2000 if you add Nader to Gore's total (even though Kerry did better in New Hampshire than Gore did).
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« Reply #6 on: March 31, 2007, 12:52:30 PM »

(trend; red for GOP and blue for Dems; green =  no trend)

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No offense but that map is ridiculous. There's lots of reasons but I'll just give the most obvious for now: Georgia trending Democratic.

As for your reasoning for Maine, that applies to every state except 3, South Dakota, Vermont and North Carolina, so it's hardly proof of a trend and is a perfect example of what I call the "trend line fallacy". There is no reason to expect a shift from one election to the next to continue indefinitely, for example despite the delusions of GOP hacks, West Virginia is certainly not going to keep voting from now on like it did in 2004.

And one look at our state legislature results (including in 2004, a generally good GOP year) doesn't give much evidence of Minnesota trending Republican (something the Republicans are beginning to realize. I heard about the "Republican trend" in Minnesota nonstop before 2004, not so much after that and no more after 2006.)
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Reignman
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« Reply #7 on: March 31, 2007, 03:32:31 PM »

Look, I'm sure we can all agree the southwest is trending Democratic. As for the midwest trending GOP and parts of the south trending Democratic, I think that makes sense because of changes in population distribution. If more people move to southern states, I think that will generally make them more Democratic (and less people in midwestern states should generally make them more GOP).
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #8 on: March 31, 2007, 03:57:32 PM »

Florida is probably going to trend hard right along with Michigan while Nevada trends hard left.
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Kevin
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« Reply #9 on: March 31, 2007, 04:35:34 PM »

Florida is probably going to trend hard right along with Michigan while Nevada trends hard left.

Florida I agree with you as it seems to be turning back into a Southern state culturely as many of the Jewish retirees are beginning to die off and they are being replaced with retirees from other Red states along with large numbers of Christan evengilicals and rural transplants. also eventully I think the GOP may pick up Nelson's Senate seat and may make other further gains in this state. With MI it is most likely going to go Democratic in 2008 However the Republicans do stand a good chance to pick up the Governor's Mansion in 2010 and maybe we can knock off Stabenow in 2012.
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Reignman
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« Reply #10 on: March 31, 2007, 05:48:14 PM »

Michigan may be trending to the GOP, but it's definitely doing it slowly.

As for Florida, aren't there probably going to be a higher % of hispanics there in the future?
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Kevin
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« Reply #11 on: March 31, 2007, 06:06:56 PM »

Michigan may be trending to the GOP, but it's definitely doing it slowly.

As for Florida, aren't there probably going to be a higher % of hispanics there in the future?

Yeah but they are coming mainly from Cuba and Cuban American voters are for the most part solidly loyal to the Republican Party and will likely remain so even after Castro's gone.     
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Smash255
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« Reply #12 on: April 01, 2007, 12:46:05 AM »

Reignman,

Out of curiosity, why do you see the southeast trending that way so strongly?  Increased Hispanic vote portion?  Because New Mexico and Arizona seem very different to me otherwise.  It would make sense for GA & NC.

I'm also interested on hearing your logic on ME, which really surprised me by being red on the map.

This first paragraph doesn't really make sense to me: I'm not sure what you're asking.

Maine's margin of Kerry over Bush is less than that of Gore and Bush in 2000 if you add Nader to Gore's total (even though Kerry did better in New Hampshire than Gore did).

When you look at how a state trends, its better to look how it trends based off the national average than head to head one election to the next.  Their was a 3% swing nationally in 04, more if you add Nader to Gore (not to mention the true Nader Gore effect is something like 5-2 Gore over Bush),.  Again you really need to look at the national swing and take that into consideration to see how things are really moving in one state to the next.  Taking national average into consideration the only state that trended more Democratic than Maine between 2000 and 2004 was Vermont, with Oregon and Colorado close by and New Hampshire rounding out the top 5 (not including D.C which would rank just behind Colorado)
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BRTD
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« Reply #13 on: April 01, 2007, 01:56:31 PM »

Look, I'm sure we can all agree the southwest is trending Democratic.

For the most part yes.

As for the midwest trending GOP and parts of the south trending Democratic, I think that makes sense because of changes in population distribution. If more people move to southern states, I think that will generally make them more Democratic

No, not at all. The results in Georgia over the past few years are the perfect example of why not, Georgia is trending HARD to the Republicans, and the gains are mostly in the fast growing areas. Take a look at the results in Forsyth County over time. That's actually why I found the map so amusing, Georgia is one of the fastest Republican trending states in the country and may soon be more Republican than Texas at this rate.

It's true in a few areas (like NOVA and parts of North Carolina), but hardly true at large.

(and less people in midwestern states should generally make them more GOP).

I have no clue where the idea behind this comes from.
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Verily
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« Reply #14 on: April 01, 2007, 07:58:38 PM »

Light blue and light red are happening slowly, darker blue and darker red are happeningly rapidly. In some cases the trend is irrelevant to the electoral college because the state is trending in the direction of its current orientation, though this is mostly true in Republican-trending states.

There are also degrees of trend; Indiana and Montana are slightly trending Democratic, but not nearly so much so as Nevada, which nonetheless is not even comparable to Virginia or Colorado or New Hampshire.

Overall, the trend of increasingly-populous Republican states combined with the slow trend of borderline states to the Democrats continues.

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tarheel-leftist85
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« Reply #15 on: April 02, 2007, 01:48:56 AM »
« Edited: April 02, 2007, 01:51:32 AM by tarheel maniac »


80% red = trending Dem. rapidly
40% red = trending Dem. slowly
gray = staying put
40% blue = trending Rep. slowly
80% blue = trending Rep. rapidly
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #16 on: April 02, 2007, 05:27:06 PM »


80% red = trending Dem. rapidly
40% red = trending Dem. slowly
gray = staying put
40% blue = trending Rep. slowly
80% blue = trending Rep. rapidly

Wow is that map WAY wrong...
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Smash255
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« Reply #17 on: April 03, 2007, 12:07:26 AM »


80% red = trending Dem. rapidly
40% red = trending Dem. slowly
gray = staying put
40% blue = trending Rep. slowly
80% blue = trending Rep. rapidly

Wow is that map WAY wrong...

while some of them are right, maybe the map is a belated April fools joke as a whole??
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Joe Biden 2020
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« Reply #18 on: April 03, 2007, 12:31:16 AM »

Light blue and light red are happening slowly, darker blue and darker red are happeningly rapidly. In some cases the trend is irrelevant to the electoral college because the state is trending in the direction of its current orientation, though this is mostly true in Republican-trending states.

There are also degrees of trend; Indiana and Montana are slightly trending Democratic, but not nearly so much so as Nevada, which nonetheless is not even comparable to Virginia or Colorado or New Hampshire.

Overall, the trend of increasingly-populous Republican states combined with the slow trend of borderline states to the Democrats continues.



You need to color Oklahoma green.  We are definitely not trending GOP anymore.  In my honest assessment of this state, we are drifting ever so slowly Democratic, but not enough to change the dynamics of this great state.
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Smash255
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« Reply #19 on: April 03, 2007, 01:50:57 AM »

light blue small GOP trend
medium blue decent GOP trend

light red small dem trend
medium red decent Dem trend
dark red heavy Dem trend

gray little or  no trend

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BRTD
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« Reply #20 on: April 03, 2007, 01:50:50 PM »

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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #21 on: April 03, 2007, 05:13:07 PM »

This is what I think... Could be wrong..

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Smash255
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« Reply #22 on: April 03, 2007, 05:22:12 PM »

This is what I think... Could be wrong..



Don't agree with several, but some I can perhaps understand your thinking, but what makes you think PA & Ohio will trend GOP??
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #23 on: April 03, 2007, 05:33:05 PM »

I believe the Republican party will start to shift to the left just a bit, which would cause states like PA, OH, MI, WI, IA to trend toward the GOP. While the Democrat party will stay the same or even shift just a bit to the right *Keep in mind the issue of today will not be the same of tomorrow*.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #24 on: April 03, 2007, 06:03:57 PM »

Dark Blue=hard right
Light Blue=gradual rightward shift
Grey=little or no change
Light Red=gradual leftward shift
Dark Red=hard left

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