Do you see any major shifts in the next decade?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

(trend; red for GOP and blue for Dems; green =  no trend)

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No offense but that map is ridiculous. There's lots of reasons but I'll just give the most obvious for now: Georgia trending Democratic.

As for your reasoning for Maine, that applies to every state except 3, South Dakota, Vermont and North Carolina, so it's hardly proof of a trend and is a perfect example of what I call the "trend line fallacy". There is no reason to expect a shift from one election to the next to continue indefinitely, for example despite the delusions of GOP hacks, West Virginia is certainly not going to keep voting from now on like it did in 2004.

And one look at our state legislature results (including in 2004, a generally good GOP year) doesn't give much evidence of Minnesota trending Republican (something the Republicans are beginning to realize. I heard about the "Republican trend" in Minnesota nonstop before 2004, not so much after that and no more after 2006.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Look, I'm sure we can all agree the southwest is trending Democratic.

For the most part yes.

As for the midwest trending GOP and parts of the south trending Democratic, I think that makes sense because of changes in population distribution. If more people move to southern states, I think that will generally make them more Democratic

No, not at all. The results in Georgia over the past few years are the perfect example of why not, Georgia is trending HARD to the Republicans, and the gains are mostly in the fast growing areas. Take a look at the results in Forsyth County over time. That's actually why I found the map so amusing, Georgia is one of the fastest Republican trending states in the country and may soon be more Republican than Texas at this rate.

It's true in a few areas (like NOVA and parts of North Carolina), but hardly true at large.

(and less people in midwestern states should generally make them more GOP).

I have no clue where the idea behind this comes from.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Trust me, there is no republican trend going on in MI.  Some of the old republican strongholds are solidly Democrat, and those. along with the old Democrat areas win the election for the Dems.  We have also had a loss of population, and like any neighborhood going downhill, the more wealthy are able and willing to move away leaving the poor behind.  The poor vote Democrat.  The only way a republican will win MI these days is if there is a really poor Dem on the ticket.

The best example is Kalamazoo where I am originally from.  Used to be a hands down win for republicans.  Today, it is solidly Democrat, and every one of my formerly republican family members vote straight Dem today.  It is also the home of liberal activist billionaire Jon Stryker whose company makes much of the medical equipment used on you when you go to the doctor.

I would have to say you are wrong.  A few years back you would have not think MI would be a toss-up to lean Demorcatic state, but now it is.

Then you clearly don't know much about Michigan a few years ago.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ferguson's district didn't even vote for Gore. The seat he represented in 2000 did, but the new district voted for Bush both times. The fact that it was even close just shows how much of an idiot Ferguson is, there is no reason that seat should be competitive. As much as I'd love to see him gone, Stender would've most likely been a one-termer, perhaps a more moderate Democrat could hold the seat but Stender would've easily been one of the liberal out of NJ's delegation (didn't she promise to push for the impeachment of Bush?). The fact that someone so liberal came so close to beating Ferguson is not something Republicans should be happy about.

Garrett's district is not, never was and under the current lines never will be competitive. Garrett doesn't fit the district well, it'd be more well suited to Frelinguysen or even Saxton. But no one with an R next to their name is going to lose in that district, and it'll never be a serious target. Garrett's victories aren't really proof of anything more than Donald Payne's victories are.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

There is no way Giuliani would win Arkansas, much like West Virginia.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

(trend; red for GOP and blue for Dems; green =  no trend)

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I fail to understand how Illinois is trending Republican. The Dem percentage has been growing steadily since 1992, and it's gonna stay like that as long as Chicagoland continues moving to the left.

half this map is a disaster

Yeah. Georgia going Dem is the worst part.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

(trend; red for GOP and blue for Dems; green =  no trend)

Image Link

No offense but that map is ridiculous. There's lots of reasons but I'll just give the most obvious for now: Georgia trending Democratic.

As for your reasoning for Maine, that applies to every state except 3, South Dakota, Vermont and North Carolina, so it's hardly proof of a trend and is a perfect example of what I call the "trend line fallacy". There is no reason to expect a shift from one election to the next to continue indefinitely, for example despite the delusions of GOP hacks, West Virginia is certainly not going to keep voting from now on like it did in 2004.

And one look at our state legislature results (including in 2004, a generally good GOP year) doesn't give much evidence of Minnesota trending Republican (something the Republicans are beginning to realize. I heard about the "Republican trend" in Minnesota nonstop before 2004, not so much after that and no more after 2006.)

Truly, an Atlas elections genius.

No Republican has won a statewide election in Minnesota since that post.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

(trend; red for GOP and blue for Dems; green =  no trend)

Image Link

No offense but that map is ridiculous. There's lots of reasons but I'll just give the most obvious for now: Georgia trending Democratic.

As for your reasoning for Maine, that applies to every state except 3, South Dakota, Vermont and North Carolina, so it's hardly proof of a trend and is a perfect example of what I call the "trend line fallacy". There is no reason to expect a shift from one election to the next to continue indefinitely, for example despite the delusions of GOP hacks, West Virginia is certainly not going to keep voting from now on like it did in 2004.

And one look at our state legislature results (including in 2004, a generally good GOP year) doesn't give much evidence of Minnesota trending Republican (something the Republicans are beginning to realize. I heard about the "Republican trend" in Minnesota nonstop before 2004, not so much after that and no more after 2006.)

Truly, an Atlas elections genius.

No Republican has won a statewide election in Minnesota since that post.

How are those West Virginia and Georgia predictions working out for you?

West Virginia was wrong, Georgia did not begin trending D until much later than that post was made.