Do you see any major shifts in the next decade?

[Kevin]

Florida is probably going to trend hard right along with Michigan while Nevada trends hard left.

Florida I agree with you as it seems to be turning back into a Southern state culturely as many of the Jewish retirees are beginning to die off and they are being replaced with retirees from other Red states along with large numbers of Christan evengilicals and rural transplants. also eventully I think the GOP may pick up Nelson's Senate seat and may make other further gains in this state. With MI it is most likely going to go Democratic in 2008 However the Republicans do stand a good chance to pick up the Governor's Mansion in 2010 and maybe we can knock off Stabenow in 2012.

[Kevin]

Michigan may be trending to the GOP, but it's definitely doing it slowly.

As for Florida, aren't there probably going to be a higher % of hispanics there in the future?

Yeah but they are coming mainly from Cuba and Cuban American voters are for the most part solidly loyal to the Republican Party and will likely remain so even after Castro's gone.     

[Kevin]

Dark Blue=hard right
Light Blue=gradual rightward shift
Grey=little or no change
Light Red=gradual leftward shift
Dark Red=hard left

I agree with everyting except FL, Which I think is beginning to trend hard right, NH which is sowing signs of going hard left along with ME which is also showing the same and AZ, MO,MI are trending center.   

[Kevin]

Does anyone want to take a stab at guessing the swing map from 2004-2008, compared to the national average?

For a start, NJ, NY, and CT will trend towards Dems without the 9/11 bump. Also, Louisiana will trend GOP with a smaller black population.

In a Clinton vs. Giuliani matchup:

NEW YORK
Clinton (D) 58%
Giuliani (R) 40%


NEW JERSEY
Clinton (D) 52%
Giuliani (R) 47%


CONNECTICUT
Clinton (D) 55%
Giuliani (R) 43%


LOUISIANA
Giuliani (R) 59%
Clinton (D) 40%

I think Rudy may do slightly better then Bush did in 04 in the Northeastern states you listed, However he still would not carry any of them except maybe NH and PA.