Do you see any major shifts in the next decade?

[DownWithTheLeft]

Florida is probably going to trend hard right along with Michigan while Nevada trends hard left.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Dark Blue=hard right
Light Blue=gradual rightward shift
Grey=little or no change
Light Red=gradual leftward shift
Dark Red=hard left

[DownWithTheLeft]

This seems to roughly be our concensus:

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How exactly do you come to that conclusion as a consensus???  Quite a few off, but especially on NJ & NC???

Smash, NJ is trending right, but they seem to peaking at about 45-47%

[DownWithTheLeft]

based off what exactly??  NJ was closer in 04, but that was manily due to the 9/11 bump Bush got throughout the metro area (Long Island, parts of the Hudson Valley, and CT as well as NJ).  That bump for the GOP has since gone away and NJ is basically as Democratic as it was during the late 90's and 2000, same for the rest opf the region (maybe even more Democratic on LI since the GOP keeps losing more & more seats here) but NJ really isn't trending GOP at all.  It was a 9/11 bump that is over.

The bump is yet to be seen whether or not it went away, that will be decided in the 2008 election.  However, if NJ was turning Dem then I think either Garrett or Ferguson would have been defeated.  The fact that they both held their seats and Kean had a decent showing say that NJ should let the GOP keep getting that 45-47 continually