Do you see any major shifts in the next decade?

[Reignman]

(trend; red for GOP and blue for Dems; green =  no trend)

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[Reignman]

Reignman,

Out of curiosity, why do you see the southeast trending that way so strongly?  Increased Hispanic vote portion?  Because New Mexico and Arizona seem very different to me otherwise.  It would make sense for GA & NC.

I'm also interested on hearing your logic on ME, which really surprised me by being red on the map.

This first paragraph doesn't really make sense to me: I'm not sure what you're asking.

Maine's margin of Kerry over Bush is less than that of Gore and Bush in 2000 if you add Nader to Gore's total (even though Kerry did better in New Hampshire than Gore did).

[Reignman]

Look, I'm sure we can all agree the southwest is trending Democratic. As for the midwest trending GOP and parts of the south trending Democratic, I think that makes sense because of changes in population distribution. If more people move to southern states, I think that will generally make them more Democratic (and less people in midwestern states should generally make them more GOP).

[Reignman]

Michigan may be trending to the GOP, but it's definitely doing it slowly.

As for Florida, aren't there probably going to be a higher % of hispanics there in the future?

[Reignman]

This seems to roughly be our concensus:

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[Reignman]

This seems to roughly be our concensus:

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How exactly do you come to that conclusion as a consensus???  Quite a few off, but especially on NJ & NC???

Those're mistakes. I didn't go state by state (I tried to do it by memory).

[Reignman]

Mr. Moderate, I'm curious about your logic in regards to Oregon.

Same here. I believe that when you look at presidential election trends since 1992, Oregon ranks like 4th in the nation when it comes to trending Democrat.

Some people think it's trending back a little since a couple years ago.

[Reignman]

Mr. Moderate, I'm curious about your logic in regards to Oregon.

Same here. I believe that when you look at presidential election trends since 1992, Oregon ranks like 4th in the nation when it comes to trending Democrat.

Some people think it's trending back a little since a couple years ago.

I'm getting deja vu, so sorry if I've ranted like this before.

The way I look at it it, Washington County and such doesn't seem to have any indications of trending anything but Dem.  Clackamas County has its inner suburbs (they go along with Washington County) like Lake Oswego and then its outer exurbs, which I don't see as getting any more GOP.

Beyond that, I'm not sure where the GOP would improve...the growth around Bend isn't good enough, and probably not even Republican enough.  I see it as stagnant, with more potential for the Dems.

The only area I really see the Dems risking losing in Oregon in the near future is Columbia County, and it continues to be inexplicably resistant.  I was expecting it to trend Bush big time in 2004 like other working-class counties with lots of Dem-friendly evangelicals.

Oh, I agree completely, but there are still a lot of people out there who think Oregon is trending right.