Do you see any major shifts in the next decade?

[Smash255]

coastal areas of the upper south, Virginia and N.C.  Virginia is pretty much known as Northern VA is trending heavily Democratic.  North Carolina, I see a Democratic shift as well, and their has been a small one.  In this regard look at Metro Charlotte, and Raleigh especially, but also Greensboro, growing rather quickly and becoming more and more Democratic, large amount of northeastern transplants

[Smash255]

Reignman,

Out of curiosity, why do you see the southeast trending that way so strongly?  Increased Hispanic vote portion?  Because New Mexico and Arizona seem very different to me otherwise.  It would make sense for GA & NC.

I'm also interested on hearing your logic on ME, which really surprised me by being red on the map.

This first paragraph doesn't really make sense to me: I'm not sure what you're asking.

Maine's margin of Kerry over Bush is less than that of Gore and Bush in 2000 if you add Nader to Gore's total (even though Kerry did better in New Hampshire than Gore did).

When you look at how a state trends, its better to look how it trends based off the national average than head to head one election to the next.  Their was a 3% swing nationally in 04, more if you add Nader to Gore (not to mention the true Nader Gore effect is something like 5-2 Gore over Bush),.  Again you really need to look at the national swing and take that into consideration to see how things are really moving in one state to the next.  Taking national average into consideration the only state that trended more Democratic than Maine between 2000 and 2004 was Vermont, with Oregon and Colorado close by and New Hampshire rounding out the top 5 (not including D.C which would rank just behind Colorado)

[Smash255]

80% red = trending Dem. rapidly
40% red = trending Dem. slowly
gray = staying put
40% blue = trending Rep. slowly
80% blue = trending Rep. rapidly

Wow is that map WAY wrong...

while some of them are right, maybe the map is a belated April fools joke as a whole??

[Smash255]

light blue small GOP trend
medium blue decent GOP trend

light red small dem trend
medium red decent Dem trend
dark red heavy Dem trend

gray little or  no trend

[Smash255]

This is what I think... Could be wrong..

Don't agree with several, but some I can perhaps understand your thinking, but what makes you think PA & Ohio will trend GOP??

[Smash255]

Dark Blue=hard right
Light Blue=gradual rightward shift
Grey=little or no change
Light Red=gradual leftward shift
Dark Red=hard left

1.  How the hell is Maine trending GOP??

2.  Where is Colorado on here??

I have disagreements on others, but these are the most blatant

[Smash255]

This seems to roughly be our concensus:

Image Link

How exactly do you come to that conclusion as a consensus???  Quite a few off, but especially on NJ & NC???

[Smash255]

This seems to roughly be our concensus:

Image Link

How exactly do you come to that conclusion as a consensus???  Quite a few off, but especially on NJ & NC???

Those're mistakes. I didn't go state by state (I tried to do it by memory).

Can't see why you would think why either state would be trending GOP in the 1st place. 

[Smash255]

This seems to roughly be our concensus:

Image Link

How exactly do you come to that conclusion as a consensus???  Quite a few off, but especially on NJ & NC???

Smash, NJ is trending right, but they seem to peaking at about 45-47%

 based off what exactly??  NJ was closer in 04, but that was manily due to the 9/11 bump Bush got throughout the metro area (Long Island, parts of the Hudson Valley, and CT as well as NJ).  That bump for the GOP has since gone away and NJ is basically as Democratic as it was during the late 90's and 2000, same for the rest opf the region (maybe even more Democratic on LI since the GOP keeps losing more & more seats here) but NJ really isn't trending GOP at all.  It was a 9/11 bump that is over.

[Smash255]

based off what exactly??  NJ was closer in 04, but that was manily due to the 9/11 bump Bush got throughout the metro area (Long Island, parts of the Hudson Valley, and CT as well as NJ).  That bump for the GOP has since gone away and NJ is basically as Democratic as it was during the late 90's and 2000, same for the rest opf the region (maybe even more Democratic on LI since the GOP keeps losing more & more seats here) but NJ really isn't trending GOP at all.  It was a 9/11 bump that is over.

The bump is yet to be seen whether or not it went away, that will be decided in the 2008 election.  However, if NJ was turning Dem then I think either Garrett or Ferguson would have been defeated.  The fact that they both held their seats and Kean had a decent showing say that NJ should let the GOP keep getting that 45-47 continually

Your forgetting the type of districts both Garrett and Ferguson have.  Garrett is in a VERY Republican district, one of only two districts Bush won in 2000, the 2nd most Republican district in the state, while Ferguson's district did go to Gore in 00, it was made more GOP through redistricting, and is the 4th most GOP district in the state, this is seen by the district jumping much more Republican than even the state did between 2000 and 2004.

Not to mention while Garrett won by a decent margin (about 11) he outspent his opponent by 2-1, in a very GOP district.  Ferguson, who was also in a strong GOP district only won by a shade over 1%, despite outspending his opponent by $1 million.

To say those two winning showed that the state is moving right is a bit silly, considering the Republican bent of the districts themselves, the very tight race in one race, as well as the amount the two of them outspent their opponents

[Smash255]

(trend; red for GOP and blue for Dems; green =  no trend)

Image Link

I fail to understand how Illinois is trending Republican. The Dem percentage has been growing steadily since 1992, and it's gonna stay like that as long as Chicagoland continues moving to the left.

half this map is a disaster