2007 Gubernatorial Predictions

[Hash]

Made my prediction...

[Tender Branson]

If it's Beshear versus Fletcher, I think Beshear will win by at least 20 points. I think it could be 2-to-1. That is, unless Beshear says something incredibly idiotic.

For the life of me, I cannot understand how Fletcher got in there in the first place (even with all the GOP voter fraud that Kentucky has become known for).

For who are you voting in the Primary and then in the General Election if I may ask ?

[Sam Spade]

Thanks Dave!

MS = Safe Republican
LA = Likely Republican
KY = Lean Dem - the reason why it lies in this category is b/c I want to see who the Dem nominee is; whether Fletcher is the Rep nominee (and I now suspect he will be); and I want to see a few horse race polls so I can see how weak (or maybe not as weak) Fletcher is against the Dem.  SUSA approval polls are nice for us to make comments, but they are not dispositive in horse races.

Why bother reposting exactly what you said!

Although I personally don't call anything safe this far out, it would take a miracle in Mississippi for the Democrats.

I don't see why not, even though I would like to have some polls.  I do take into account the recent dysfunction in the MS Democratic party of late and the fact that the candidates running are really only classic 2nd and 3rd-tier candidates.  Also, the election is not that far away (5 months).

In LA, if I wasn't taking the racism into account, I would seriously think about putting this race in safe R.  While money is not everything, the fact that Jindal has almost $5 million in the bank and was clearly beating Breaux in the horse races makes me wonder whether any serious Democrat is going to step in.  LA is the countervailing trend to national trends right now in many ways and that must also be taken into account.

[Gabu]

For what it's worth, this is what I said in my predictions:

KY (lean Dem): I have a feeling that Fletcher just might be the nominee here, making it a lean Dem race. It'll go down to tossup Dem if Northup manages to win.

LA (strong Rep): The Democratic side is more a circus than a legitimate primary. The Republicans are all but crowning their best bet, Jindal. We might as well swear Jindal in right now.

MS (lean Rep): I don't know enough about the Democrats to be able to confidently place this at srong Dem, but Barbour probably will win.

[Boris]

haha, it looks like everyone has the same prediction right now.

...though that'll probably change when Harry makes his

[Bandit3 the Worker]

For who are you voting in the Primary and then in the General Election if I may ask ?

I'm voting for Galbraith in the primary.

In the general, I'm probably voting for whoever wins the Democratic nomination, unless there's a strong independent running.

[7,052,770]

haha, it looks like everyone has the same prediction right now.

...though that'll probably change when Harry makes his

Sigh, I can't honestly predict that Barbour will lose yet, but I definitely don't think MS can be classified as "strong Rep" at this stage in the game.
Eaves has the $$$ to keep Barbour close.

[RBH]

"Blind" Predictions for the Kentucky primary

STATE AGRICULTURE COMMISSONER-R: Farmer 75, Stosberg 25
STATE AGRICULTURE COMMISSONER-D: Neville 60, Williams 40

STATE TREASURER-D: Weaver 41,  Hollenbach 24, Dunmire 23, Wood 12
STATE TREASURER-R: Upchurch 33, Napier 27, Wheeler 27, Smith 13

SECRETARY OF STATE-D: Robinson 58, Hendrickson 29, White 13

ATTORNEY GENERAL-D: Conway 61, Bullock 39
ATTORNEY GENERAL-R: Coleman 41, Lee 30, Kimball 21, Larson 8

GOVERNOR & LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR-R: Northup 47, Fletcher 38, Harper 15
GOVERNOR & LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR-D: Beshear 33, Lunsford 27, Richards 15, Henry 14, Galbraith 7, Hensley 4

Any thoughts?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

If Lunsford or Henry beat Galbraith in a Democratic primary, of all things, then the Democratic Party might as well just disband.

[ElectionAtlas]

Congratulations to Gabu for the earliest 100% prediction for 2007 Governors (5/8/07) beating out boris78 by just under three minutes!