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True Democrat
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #50 on: May 06, 2007, 03:02:36 PM »


Soon.  I have two research papers (one on the 1968 election actually Tongue) and three ap tests in the next two weeks, so I'm a bit busy.
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True Democrat
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #51 on: May 09, 2007, 04:31:53 PM »

By the spring of 1987, Tsongas' cancer has progressed so badly that he must temporarily relieve himself of the duties of the office of the President.  Unfortunately the doctors caught it very late.

On May 19, 1987, Vice President Gore formally takes over the duties as president.

Throughout the summer, Acting President Gore does not take much action, contacting Tsongas on the signing of bills and whatnot.  He also makes very few public statements, most of them on Tsongas' health anyway.

However, by about July of 1987, Tsongas' condition has worsened.  Every treatment has thus far failed.  For the good of the country and his health, Tsongas makes the decision to resign, formlally resigning on July 12, 1987.  Gore, in a somber ceremony knowing Tsongas' death is near, takes the oath of office in the East Room of the White House the same day.

Gore's first order of business is to appoint a Vice President, with congressional approval.  Gore makes a surprise choice and chooses fellow conservative and pro-life Democrat Bob Casey, the Governor of Pennsylvania.  Casey was first elected Governor in a surprise upset in 1978 when he defeated Dick Thornburgh (in a very Republican year).  Casey was easily reelected in 1982, winning all but one county with 67% of the vote.  He ran for Senate against Arlen Specter in 1986, but lost in a very close election.

After several weeks of questioning, Casey is approved in the House by a vote of 296-139.  In the Senate, it is a vote of 74-26.

Gore then gets to work as President.  However, Tsongas has left Gore a government that is a mess.  A number of curruption scandals have surfaced in the Labor and HUD departments, which Gore is now seen as responsible for.  Furthermore, the farm crisis in the midwest has gotten much worse.  With all these problems building up, Gore's approval moves from 81% when he took office to 34% by the new year.

As the 1988 election approaches, President Gore announces shortly after his first State of the Union that he will run for the Democratic nomination for President.  By the time of the Iowa caucus his approval is back up to 45%, though he still has a 76% approval rating among Democrats.

In Iowa on February 8th, Gore easily wins, though he does badly in Iowa because of the farm crisis:
Gore: 61%
Uncommitted: 30%
Others: 9%

In New Hampshire on February 16th, Gore again easily wins:
Gore: 78%
Uncommitted: 10%
Others: 12%

South Dakota on February 23rd is Gore's biggest win yet:
Gore: 56%
Uncommitted: 37%
Others: 7%

Here is a map of the primaries after Super Tuesday on March 8th.  Gore officially gets enough delegates after these primaries:



However, on February 13th, the independent investigation investigating the scandals in the HUD and Labor Departments come out with their report.  What nobody had expected is that Gore is directly implicated in the scandals, when he was VP.  Although the extent of his participation is not yet known, his approval rating immediately falls to 31%, even Democrats now only have a 47% approval of him.  However, by this time he has locked up the nomination in terms of delegates.
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True Democrat
true democrat
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #52 on: May 10, 2007, 03:05:48 PM »

Two day's after the report about Gore's involvement in the scandal has come out, another primary is held in Illinois.  Although Gore wins, a number of people write-in other candidates or vote uncommitted:

Gore: 40%
Uncommitted: 38%
Simon (Write-in): 13%
Others: 9%

After this primary, Simon, Biden, Jesse Jackson, and Gephardt all annouonce their willingness to be drafted into a candidacy if they get enough write-in votes.

In Connecticut on March 25th, Gore wins mainly due to the opposition being split:

Gore: 31%
Uncommitted: 15%
Simon: 14%
Gephardt: 14%
Biden: 12%
Jackson: 10%
Others: 4%

None of the challengers are willing to drop out at this time, even though they know the chances of getting Gore's delegates released at the convention are low.

However, on April 1st, former President Tsongas, who made a miraculous recovery from cancer over the winter, announces that he is not opposed to a draft to try to unseat his former VP.  After Tsongas went into remission President Gore did make an offer for VP Casey to resign, Gore would then appoint Tsongas VP, and then Gore would resign, making Tsongas president once again.  However, Tsongas felt this would cause more harm than good to Washington.

The next day, Biden and Simon drop out, endorsing Tsongas.  Two days later Gephardt gives up the effort to be drafted, leading only Jackson refusing to drop out.

In Wisconsin on April 5th, Tsongas is able to win a huge victory, mainly because of the continuing farm crisis:
Tsongas: 57%
Gore: 34%
Jackson: 5%
Others: 4%

In New York on April 19th, Tsongas wins again, although this time it is much closer (with Jackson fareing worse than expected in NYC):
Tsongas: 46%
Gore: 44%
Jackson: 7%
Others: 3%

Jackson drops out of the race and endorses Tsongas.

Gore is able to rebound and win a close victory in Pennsylvania April 26th:
Gore: 53%
Tsongas: 45%
Others: 2%

However, on May 3rd, Tsongas shocks everyone by winning all three primaries:
DC:
Tsongas: 63%
Gore: 22%
Jackson (Write-in): 11%
Others: 4%

Indiana:
Tsongas: 54%
Gore: 44%
Others: 2%

Ohio:
Tsongas: 57%
Gore: 40%
Others: 3%

For the rest of the primaries, Tsongas wins a clear majority, although Gore is able to do fairly well in the mountain west.


Gore: 34 states
Tsongas: 17 states

Number of delegates committed to each candidate going into the convention:
Gore: 619
Tsongas: 243
Jackson: 7
Others: 16
Uncommitted: 115

With so few delegates, Tsongas knows the only way to win the nomination is to get the convention to release  Gore's delegates.

As the Democratic convention approaches, President Gore attempts to rearrange the order of the convention to allow the ballotting to take place on the first night, before Tsongas can speak.  However, even Gore's own men oppose this plan.

On the first night of the convention, Tsongas speaks, as a former president normally would have.  He gives an inspiring speech asking for unity in the party in the face of adversity.  He also calls on the delegates to participate in "true democracy" by voting to release the delegates in light of recent scandals.  After Tsongas speaks, former President and current Senator Ted Kennedy speaks (Kennedy took Tsongas' seat after he was elected in 1984).  Although he makes no official endorsement, Kennedy nonetheless asks for the delegates to vote their conscience on the two candidates.

The next night the balloting takes place (Gore got it moved up one night).  The Massachusetts delegation (in which nearly every delegate is tied to Gore) makes a motion to have the delegates released from their primary voting positions.  The motion is accepted by the Chairman and seconded by Washington.

The Chairman first attempts to have a voice vote for releasing delegates, but delegates see how that could be manipulated, so a roll call vote is requested.

Here is an analysis of the roll call vote:
In Favor of Releasing Delegates: 559
Opposed to Releasing Delegates: 441

Committed Gore Delegates:
In Favor: 267
Opposed: 352

Committed Tsongas Delegates:
In Favor: 222
Opposed: 21

Other Committed Delegates:
In Favor: 22
Opposed: 1

Uncommitted Delegates:
In Favor: 48
Opposed: 67

It's a fairly close vote, but ultimately successful.

On the first ballot, Tsongas is able to claim victory, although it is one of the closest ballots in Democratic history, with Wyoming ultimately deciding the winner.  If Wyoming had instead gone to Gore, a second ballot would have been required:
Tsongas: 502
Gore: 492
Others: 6

Tsongas contemplated choosing Casey for VP, but ultimately decides against it.  In trying to emphasize economic  farm recovery in the midwest, which in addition to ethics reform has been the main theme of this campaign, Tsongas chooses North Dakota Governor George Sinner, a key Tsongas supporter on the farm issue.  Sinner is not very well known, but is seen as experienced as a midwest Governor and former Represntative.
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True Democrat
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #53 on: May 11, 2007, 08:40:53 PM »
« Edited: May 12, 2007, 08:57:54 AM by True Democrat »

For the Republican nomination, the main candidates are Stevens (again), former Governor Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, Senator Alan Simpson of Wyoming, Senator Pete Wilson of California, and the very young, Senator Dan Quayle of Indiana.  With no governors in the race, Many see the lack of Republican talent as a result of the belief that Gore could not be beaten (he had approvals in the 80s in 1987.

In the Iowa caucus held on February 8th, Alexander's win is no surprise, but Quayle, a fellow midwesterner, somehow claims second:
Alexander: 31%
Quayle: 18%
Stevens: 16%
Simpson: 14%
Wilson: 14%
Others: 7%

New Hampshire on February 16th is a much closer race, with Wilson doing better than expected:
Alexander: 30%
Wilson: 29%
Quayle: 15%
Stevens: 11%
Simpson: 10%
Others: 5%

Stevens and Simpson drop out after this primary.
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True Democrat
true democrat
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #54 on: May 11, 2007, 09:05:21 PM »
« Edited: May 12, 2007, 08:57:08 AM by True Democrat »

Alexander is expected to win South Dakota on February 23rd, but Quayle has spent most of his time campaigning there and pulls off a surprise victory:
Quayle: 36%
Alexander: 32%
Wilson: 25%
Others: 7%

With Wilson's win in Vermont on March 1st, Alexander no longer stands as the clear frontrunner:
Wilson: 41%
Alexander: 35%
Quayle: 21%
Others: 3%

Alexander knows he needs to win South Carolina on March 5th to have any standing.  However, conservatives, especially social conservatives, are now abandoning Alexander for Quayle who is campaigning against abortion, gun control, and violence in video games and music.  This enables Quayle to win fairly solidly in South Carolina:
Quayle: 45%
Alexander: 32%
Wilson: 19%
Others: 4%

Most expect Alexander to stay in the race (and many believe he can still win), but Dole instead drops out and makes no endorsement.

Super Tuesday on March 8th produces huge results for Quayle over Wilson in most states:

Alabama:
Quayle: 66%
Wilson: 30%
Others: 4%

Arkansas:
Quayle: 56%
Wilson: 37%
Others: 7%

Florida:
Quayle: 51%
Wilson: 44%
Others: 5%

Georiga:
Quayle: 59%
Wilson: 39%
Others: 2%

Kentucky:
Quayle: 55%
Wilson: 41%
Others: 4%

Louisiana:
Quayle: 71%
Wilson: 28%
Others: 1%

Maryland:
Quayle: 54%
Wilson: 44%
Others: 2%

Massachusetts:
Quayle: 49%
Wilson: 48%
Others: 3%

Mississippi:
Quayle: 75%
Wilson: 23%
Others: 2%

Missouri:
Quayle: 58%
Wilson: 40%
Others: 2%

North Carolina:
Quayle: 57%
Wilson: 42%
Others: 1%

Oklahoma:
Quayle: 65%
Wilson: 30%
Others: 5%

Rhode Island:
Wilson: 50%
Quayle: 48%
Others: 2%

Tennessee:
Quayle: 63%
Wilson: 36%
Others: 1%

Texas:
Quayle: 69%
Wilson: 28%
Others: 3%

Virginia:
Quayle: 62%
Wilson: 35%
Others: 3%
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True Democrat
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #55 on: May 11, 2007, 09:22:14 PM »
« Edited: May 17, 2007, 08:47:27 PM by True Democrat »

Quayle considered a lightweight auditioning for VP in the primaries, goes onto the win the nomination easily, after defeating Alexander, with the following map of the primaries:


Quayle: 44 states
Wilson: 5 states
Alexander: 2 states
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True Democrat
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #56 on: May 11, 2007, 09:26:14 PM »
« Edited: May 12, 2007, 08:55:44 AM by True Democrat »

At the Republican convention, Quayle wins on the first ballot:
Quayle: 913
Wilson: 38
Alexander: 24
Others: 25

Quayle first offers VP to Wilson, but refuses, citing future plans to run for governor.  Quayle then asks inexperienced, Republican Governor H. Guy Hunt of Alabama.  Hunt immediately accepts and is nominated by acclamation.  However, this choice is seen as horrible because it does not bring experience to the ticket, something Quayle needs to face the popular Tsongas.

The first poll out of the Republican convention shows the following:
Tsongas/Sinner: 58%
Quayle/Hunt: 34%
Other/Undecided: 8%
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True Democrat
true democrat
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #57 on: May 11, 2007, 09:57:30 PM »

Although Tsongas has a large lead in the beginning of the campaign, this is mostly due to sympathy over his cancer and his momentum from defeating Gore.  However, as time goes on, Quayle is able to effectively tie Gore's and Tsongas' policies as president to the farm crisis in the midwest.  While Tsongas was leading by 15 points in this region earlier, his lead is now down to about 10.  Furthermore, as the probe of the investigation releases more reports, it appears as though Tsongas had some involvement in the scandal, though no direct involvement.  Tsongas refuses to debate Quayle, believing that his poll numbers could only drop further from a debate.

By early October, Quayle has made the race much closer:
Tsongas/Sinner: 52%
Quayle/Hunt: 45%
Undecided/Other: 3%

Finally by mid-October, Tsongas, seeing his poll numbers drop, agrees to debate Quayle.  Tsongas, going into the debate, believes he will lose to Quayle's youthful charisma.  However, on a question about the experience for the presidency, Quayle compares himself to Jack Kennedy.  Tsongas is able to effectively neutralize this comparison, to the disdain of Quayle (though it was not quite as bad for Quayle as in OTL with Bentsen).  But it is another question that ruins the whole debate for Quayle.  Asked about helping to protect rights for the LGBT community, Quayle says, "I don't associate with those people.  They're dirty.  Just look at AIDS."  Realizing what has slipped out of his mouth, Quayle attempts to correct himself, but it is no use.  Polls show the Quayle's comment is highly disapproved of, and Tsongas wins the debate 75-25.

The finals polls after the debate and before the election show the following:
Tsongas/Sinner: 57%
Quayle/Hunt: 40%
Other/Undecided: 3%

However, as election results come in, it appears as though the election will be much closer than originally thought.  Tsongas' supporters, who believe victory is the only possible outcome, have very low turnout.  Meanwhile, social conservatives turn out for Quayle in big numbers.  While Tsongas was expected to get upwards of 400 electoral votes, he sees his numbers rapidly decline during election night, though he still does very well in the midwest.  The biggest state shocker of the night is Quayle's victory in New Jersey, a state where he was losing in the polls by 10-15%.  To further complicate matters, former Republican Congressman Ron Paul runs as the Libertarian candidate, which causes a few states (KS and ND) to go to Tsongas.  In the end, Tsongas achieves a large victory, though not as big as expected:


Tsongas/Sinner: 47,675,968 votes (52.05%), 368 electoral votes
Quayle/Hunt: 43,020,205 votes (46.97%), 170 electoral votes
Paul/Marrou: 431,750 votes (0.47%), 0 electoral votes
Others: 466,863 (0.51%), 0 electoral votes

In the Congressional elections, with many Democrats tied to Gore, Republicans gain back the Senate and come closer to a majority in the House:

House:
Democrats: 240 (-19)
Republicans: 195 (+19)

Senate:
Republicans: 52 (+5)
Democrats: 48 (-5)
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True Democrat
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #58 on: May 11, 2007, 10:04:12 PM »

An updated list:

Presidents:

Lyndon Johnson (D): November 22, 1963 - January 20, 1969
     defeated Goldwater (R) in 1964
Edward Kennedy (D): January 20, 1969 - January 20, 1977
     defeated Rockefeller (R) and Wallace (AI) in 1968
     defeated Howard Baker (R) in 1972
George H.W. Bush (R): January 20, 1977 - October 4, 1978
     defeated Pryor (D) in 1976
     assassinated on October 4, 1978
Robert Dole (R): October 4, 1978 - October 14, 1978
     assassinated on October 14, 1978
Gerald Ford (R): October 14, 1978 - January 20, 1985
     defeated Nunn (D) in 1980
Paul Tsongas (D): January 20, 1985 - July 12, 1987
     defeated Stevens (R) in 1984
     resigned due to sickness on July 12, 1987
Al Gore (D): July 12, 1987 - January 20, 1989
     Acting President from May 19, 1987 - July 12, 1987
Paul Tsongas (D): January 20, 1989 - ?
     Defeated Quayle (R) in 1988

Vice Presidents:

Vacant: Novebmer 22, 1963 - January 20, 1965
Hubert H. Humphrey (D): January 20, 1965 - January 20, 1969
     defeated Miller (R) in 1964
George McGovern (D): January 20, 1969 - October 11, 1974
     defeated Evans (R) and LeMay (AI) in 1968
     defeated Percy (R) in 1972
     resigned on October 11, 1974
Vacant: October 11, 1974 - January 30, 1975
David Pryor (D): January 30, 1975 - January 20, 1977
Bob Dole (R): January 20, 1977 - October 4, 1978
     defeated Carter (D) in 1976
     resigned on October 4, 1978 to become President
Vacant: October 4, 1978 - November 15, 1978
Jacob Javits (R): November 15, 1978 - January 20, 1981
John Lindsay (R): January 20, 1981 - January 20, 1985
     defeated James (D) in 1980
Al Gore (D): January 20, 1985 - July 12, 1987
     defeated Danforth (R) in 1984
     resigned to become President on July 12, 1987
Vacant: July 12, 1987 - September 25, 1987
Bob Casey (D): September 25, 1987 - January 20, 1989
George Sinner (D): January 20, 1989 - ?
     defeated Hunt (R) in 1988
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YRABNNRM
YoungRepub
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« Reply #59 on: May 12, 2007, 12:04:10 AM »

For the Republican nomination, the main candidates are Stevens (again), Senator Bob Dole of Kansas, Senator Alan Simpson of Wyoming, Senator Pete Wilson of California, and the very young, Senator Dan Quayle of Indiana.  With no governors in the race, Republican governors decide early on to support no candidate.  Many see the lack of Republican talent as a result of the belief that Gore could not be beaten (he had approvals in the 80s in 1987.

In the Iowa caucus held on February 8th, Dole's win is no surprise, but Quayle, a fellow midwesterner, somehow claims second:
Dole: 31%
Quayle: 18%
Stevens: 16%
Simpson: 14%
Wilson: 14%
Others: 7%

New Hampshire on February 16th is a much closer race, with Wilson doing better than expected:
Dole: 30%
Wilson: 29%
Quayle: 15%
Stevens: 11%
Simpson: 10%
Others: 5%

Isn't Bob Dole supposed to be dead?
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True Democrat
true democrat
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,368
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« Reply #60 on: May 12, 2007, 08:53:40 AM »

For the Republican nomination, the main candidates are Stevens (again), Senator Bob Dole of Kansas, Senator Alan Simpson of Wyoming, Senator Pete Wilson of California, and the very young, Senator Dan Quayle of Indiana.  With no governors in the race, Republican governors decide early on to support no candidate.  Many see the lack of Republican talent as a result of the belief that Gore could not be beaten (he had approvals in the 80s in 1987.

In the Iowa caucus held on February 8th, Dole's win is no surprise, but Quayle, a fellow midwesterner, somehow claims second:
Dole: 31%
Quayle: 18%
Stevens: 16%
Simpson: 14%
Wilson: 14%
Others: 7%

New Hampshire on February 16th is a much closer race, with Wilson doing better than expected:
Dole: 30%
Wilson: 29%
Quayle: 15%
Stevens: 11%
Simpson: 10%
Others: 5%

Isn't Bob Dole supposed to be dead?

Oh sh**t!  I completely forgot about that.  I haven't been following my own story in a while.  I'll replace him in a minute.  Sorry about that.
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True Democrat
true democrat
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,368
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: -2.87

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« Reply #61 on: May 12, 2007, 09:16:47 AM »

By 1990, the economy is doing slightly better, at least in the midwest.  However, after eight years of the Democrats, people are simply tired with the party, enabling the Republicans to make moderate gains in the midterm elections:

House:
Democrats: 231 (-9)
Republicans: 204 (+9)

Senate:
Republicans: 54(+2)
Democrats: 46 (-2)

Because Tsongas is barred from seeking another term, the Democratic nomination is seen as wide open.  Vice President Sinner, whose name recognition is still only about 60%, has expressed little interest in running, believing he cannot win the nomination.

Other candidates include Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton, MA Governor Michael Dukakis, and Iowa Senator Tom Harkin.

In the Iowa caucus on February 10th, Harkin wins easily with the other candidates not campaigning:
Harkin: 66%
Dukakis: 8%
Uncommitted: 8%
Clinton: 6%
Sinner (Write-in): 5%
Others: 7%

Sinner contemplates getting into the race, but ultimately decides against it.

On February 18th, in New Hampshire, Dukakis is able to win his home state.  Polls show Governor Clinton taking second, but a sex scandal breaks the day before the primary, and Clinton is not able to recover:
Dukakis: 41%
Harkin: 38%
Clinton: 8%
Sinner (Write-in): 7%
Others: 6%

Harkin is able to recover on February 25th and win South Dakota:
Harkin: 45%
Dukakis: 34%
Sinner (Write-in): 12%
Clinton: 4%
Others: 5%

Clinton drops out.  Sinner tells his supporters that if his write-in campaign place second in any primary, he will get into the race.

On March 3rd, a number of states hold primaries/caucuses:

Colorado:
Dukakis: 48%
Harkin: 42%
Sinner (Write-in): 8%
Others: 2%

Georgia:
Dukakis: 50%
Harkin: 40%
Sinner (Write-in): 3%
Others: 7%

Maryland:
Dukakis: 55%
Harkin: 40%
Sinner (Write-in): 1%
Others: 4%

Idaho:
Harkin: 56%
Dukakis: 28%
Sinner (Write-in): 11%
Others: 5%

Minnesota:
Harkin: 49%
Dukakis: 30%
Sinner (Write-in): 15%
Others: 6%

Not placing second in even Minnesota, Sinner disavows any write-in campaign.

South Carolina on March 7th is extremely close, with Harkin just barely pulling a victory:
Harkin: 47%
Dukakis: 46%
Others: 7%

Next up: Super Tuesday
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True Democrat
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #62 on: May 12, 2007, 11:56:27 AM »
« Edited: May 12, 2007, 01:02:31 PM by True Democrat »

On Super Tuesday, Harkin wins more primaries than Dukakis, but the race is still up for grabs.

A map after the Super Tuesday primaries:


Harkin: 11 states
Dukakis: 9 states

Illinois and Michigan on March 17th produce mixed results:

Illinois:
Harkin: 53%
Dukakis: 43%
Others: 4%

Michigan:
Dukakis: 50%
Harkin: 48%
Others: 2%

Connecticut on March 24th is an easy win for Dukakis:
Dukakis: 61%
Harkin: 36%
Others: 3%

On April 7th, Kansas, New York, and Wisconsin all hold primaries, with Dukakis winning New York and Harkin winning the others.

Harkin then goes on to win Pennsylvania on April 28th:
Harkin: 55%
Dukakis: 43%
Others: 2%

On May 5th, Dukakis wins DC, while Harkin wins Indiana and North Carolina.

Nebraska votes for Harkin on May 12th, while WV votes Dukakis.

The rest of the primaries are pretty evenly fought, with no clear winner going into the convention.  Here is a final map of the Democratic primaries:


Harkin: 26 states
Dukakis: 25 states

Going into the convention, it is clear that the Super Delegates will determine the winner:
Dukakis: 431
Harkin: 422
Uncommitted: 147

On the first ballot, Harkin is able ot claim victory, by an extremely close margin:
Harkin: 512
Dukakis: 481
Others: 7

Harkin chooses MO Rep. Gephardt for VP, who is nomianted by acclamation.
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True Democrat
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #63 on: May 16, 2007, 04:44:05 PM »

For the Republicans running in 1992, here are the candidates:

Governor Pete Wilson of California
Governor Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin
Govenor Carroll A. Campbell Jr. of South Carolina
Senator Phil Gramm of Texas

Going into Iowa, Campbell is the favorite, due to his conservative credentials and aiding the rise of South Carolina Republican party.  Most polls show Campbell at about 30%, with all the others at about 10%.

However, one week before Iowa, Wilson receives two key endorsements.  First, Thompson (whose poll numbers have dropped to about 7-8%), decides to drop out.  He is not expected to make an endorsement, but Wilson is able to gather his support.  Then, Wilson meets with Governor Terry Branstad of Iowa.  Making a very large promise of the VP candidacy to Branstad, Wilson is able to achieve the endosement of the Governor.  The last polls before Iowa still show Campbell leading, although only about 35-20 over Wilson.

The results on February 10th are a huge surprise.  Although Wilson still comes in second, his numbers jump to over 30%, nearly giving him victory:
Campbell: 33%
Wilson: 31%
Gramm: 17%
Uncommitted: 12%
Others: 7%

Going into New Hampshire, Wilson clearly has the momentum.  In New Hampshire on Febuary 18th, Wilson is able to claim victory, partly because of momentum and party because of the ideology of NH Republicans:
Wilson: 44%
Campbell: 35%
Gramm: 17%
Others: 4%

Gramm drops out, making no endorsement at this point.

South Dakota on February 25th is very close, but Wilson barely claims victory:
Wilson: 47%
Campbell: 46%
Others: 7%

March 3rd has five primaries/caucuses, with the following results:

Colorado:
Wilson: 52%
Campbell: 46%
Others: 2%

Georgia:
Campbell: 59%
Wilson: 36%
Others: 5%

Maryland:
Wilson: 55%
Campbell: 43%
Others: 2%

Minnesota:
Wilson: 58%
Campbell: 38%
Others: 4%

Idaho:
Wilson: 53%
Campbell: 43%
Others: 4%

Wilson's surprise victory in Idaho makes him the definite frontrunner, but Campbell vows to carry on at least until Super Tuesday.

South Carolina on March 7th is an uncontested win for Campbell
Campbell: 82%
Wilson: 15%
Others: 3%

Here are the results after Super Tuesday:


Wilson: 12 states
Campbell: 8 states

Campbell does moderately well on Super Tuesday, but on March 17th, he loses both primaries by considerable margins:

Illinois:
Wilson: 56%
Campbell: 40%
Others: 4%

Michigan:
Wilson: 51%
Campbell: 43%
Others: 6%

Connecticut on March 24th is basically uncontested:
Wilson: 67%
Campbell: 30%
Others: 3%

Campbell's loss of New York and Wisconsin on April 7th really hurt him:

Kansas:
Campbell: 49%
Wilson: 46%
Others: 5%

New York:
Wilson: 60%
Campbell: 38%
Others: 2%

Wisonsin:
Wilson: 57%
Campbell: 42%
Others: 1%

Campbell essentially concedes defeat for the rest of the campaign, but continues to keep his name on the ballots in hopes of getting the VP nod by forcing Wilson's hand at the convention.

Final map:

Wilson: 35 states
Campbell: 16 states

Wilson wins on the first ballot:
Wilson: 764
Campbell: 200
Others: 36

True to his word, Wilson nominates Branstad for VP, who is nomianted by acclamation.
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Robespierre's Jaw
Senator Conor Flynn
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #64 on: April 07, 2008, 05:21:47 AM »

This wasn't a bad timeline you had here True Democrat. If only it could be updated once more, however I highly doubt it myself.

Who did you have in mind to win the 1992 Presidential Election between Pete Wilson and Tom Harkin? At the time and now I still think that Wilson would win the Presidency.
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