5-poll average

[SPC]

Here is the most recent average of the last 5 GOP primary polls:
Giuliani 33%
McCain 16.6%
Thompson 10.75%
Gingrich 8.75%
Romney 8%
Paul 2.5%
Huckabee 1.8%
Thompson 1.67%
Brownback 1.6%
Tancredo 1.5%
Hunter 1.25%
Gilmore 0.67%
Hagel 0.5%

[CARLHAYDEN]

While averaging does tend to diminish one bad poll, it also reduces the impact of good polls.  There is an old (and good) adage that when you mix dirty water with clean water, you get dirty water.

Now, more specifically, there are two distinct problems with the polls:

First, when the surveys were taken.   Compare the results of the Opinion Dynamics poll taken 3/27-28 versus the Bloomberg poll taken 4/5-9 for the three leading candidates.

Poll                              Giuliani          Thompson, F.          McCain

Bloomberg                      36%                 9%                     20%
Opinion Dynamics           29                   15                       12

Difference/Trend              -7                   +6                       -8

Second, compare the definition of the survey sample.  Likely primary voters (Bloomberg) versus Republicans and leaners (Gallup):

Bloomberg                     29%                15%                    12%                   
Gallup                            38                    10                       16

Difference                       -9                    +5                       -4

Third, different polls include/exclude candidate options, so they're not strictly comparable.

Finally, the wording of the question posed to the respondents can significantly impact the results.  Some surveys 'push' respondents to select a candidate when the respondent is genuinely undecided.  Also, many surveys do not distinguish between those who 'stongly' support a candidate and those who merely give the candidate a slight preference.

Having had an opportunity to see some non-public surveys (and I am precluded by a confidentiality agreement from divulging the sources), here's what seems to me to be a somewhat more accurate 'read' on current support for the various actual and possible candidates for the Republican Presidential nomination among likely primary voters:

Giuliani                                    24%
Thompson, F.                          15
McCain                                    12
Romney                                    6
Gingrich                                    6
Hunter                                      2
Huckabee                                 1
Brownback                               1
Tancredo                                  1
Paul                                          1
Thompson, T.                           1
Hagel                                        1
Gillmore                                    *
Pataki                                       *
Others                                      *
Undecided                               28

Now, I suspect that the Giuliani support will continue to erode down to about 20% in two or three months.  The more Republican primary voters learn about him, the less they like him.

I anticipate that Fred Thompson will continue to grow to about 21% in two or three months.  He is probably the most likely Republican nominee.

I suspect that McCain's support will bump up two or three points in the next two or three months if he continues to concentrate on winning the war in Iraq and avoids supporting the amnesty for illegal aliens proposal.

Romney's campaign is sputtering despite his fundraising success and signficant support from influential Republicans around the country due to the Fred Thompson boomblet.

Gengrich will probably make a Shermanesque statement in a couple of months.

If Tancredo abandons the race and throws his support to Hunter (quite possible after the CRA convention, Hunter may get some momentum.

Paul will continue his campaign and may get some small increase.

If Hagel runs and is able to raise a few million dollars, he also will probably see some small increase.

Huckabee, Tommy Thompson,  Brownback, Gillmore and Paraki's campaigns are dead. 

The bottom like is that the Republican nomination is wide open.
 

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Why do I have this feeling Mitt Romney will be the GOP nominee next year? 

[Gustaf]

Why do I have this feeling Mitt Romney will be the GOP nominee next year? 

I don't know, why don't you tell us?

It does seem to still be wide open. Thompson and ROmney seems to be the main challengers. I have a feeling though that McCain will end up doing better than we expect...

[minionofmidas]

Why do I have this feeling Mitt Romney will be the GOP nominee next year? 

I don't know, why don't you tell us?

It does seem to still be wide open. Thompson and ROmney seems to be the main challengers. I have a feeling though that McCain will end up doing better than we expect...

He'll either do catastrophically worse than anyone could have expected until a couple of weeks ago, or he'll do better - if Giuliani does catastrophically worse. I basically don't really see room for the two of them as winner and main challenger in the Republican primary electorate. One will probably win the nomination, the other will go down in flames. And I think Giuliani will win.