43rd British Columbia general election

[King of Kensington]

So you have a "PC vs. Wildrose" or "PC vs. Reform" type split on the right.

[DL]

It’s notable how badly the Greens have been doing lately in BC provincial polling even though they are trying to outflank the NDP on the left these days and if you listen to Twitter and some alternative press squawking you’d think there was a lot of vulnerability there

[warandwar]

It’s notable how badly the Greens have been doing lately in BC provincial polling even though they are trying to outflank the NDP on the left these days and if you listen to Twitter and some alternative press squawking you’d think there was a lot of vulnerability there

Easier to do that from a point of opposition when the right's in charge. The NDP has been doing pretty badly environmentally but the Greens havent been effective at actually stopping them. So why would more seats change that?

[DL]

When there are Liberal governments federally or provincially Ontario the NDP is usually able to capitalize as the progressive alternative and if people in BC were upset with the BC NDP environmental record they could vote Green and then the NDP would feel the need to shore up its flank and react. With numbers like these the message to the Eby government is that it’s OK to ignore the Greens and that they don’t have to worry about any defections on the left

[Hatman 🍁]

Will this finally motiviate the BC Conservatives to run a proper campaign with candidates across the province? If they do, I can see them replacing the Liberals BC United as the main opposition.  After a cycle or two, BC United will be reduced to a rump in the wealthier parts of the Lower mainland, and BC will go back to being polarized. The Conservatives will then shift more to the centre, and will probably mirror the policies of the SoCreds.

[adma]

Will this finally motiviate the BC Conservatives to run a proper campaign with candidates across the province? If they do, I can see them replacing the Liberals BC United as the main opposition.  After a cycle or two, BC United will be reduced to a rump in the wealthier parts of the Lower mainland, and BC will go back to being polarized. The Conservatives will then shift more to the centre, and will probably mirror the policies of the SoCreds.

Almost certainly--and esp. in the event that we have other tea-leaf-reading party-jumper MLAs within the BC Interior.  Or if they fall short of a full slate, it'd be tokenly so a la the BC Liberals in '91--and keeping that example in mind, BC United reduced to a 3rd-party rump might conceivably be a next-election thing, never mind a cycle or two ahead.  (And as far as the BC Cons go, if they figure an ethnoburban strategy a la Ford Nation in Ontario, they could be a winning force even alongside BC United as a rump in Quilchena/N/W Van/Whistler types of places)

[mileslunn]

Will this finally motiviate the BC Conservatives to run a proper campaign with candidates across the province? If they do, I can see them replacing the Liberals BC United as the main opposition.  After a cycle or two, BC United will be reduced to a rump in the wealthier parts of the Lower mainland, and BC will go back to being polarized. The Conservatives will then shift more to the centre, and will probably mirror the policies of the SoCreds.

Which is probably good for NDP long run as BC United if only party on right would be better suited to gain in Lower Mainland than BC Conservatives are but less suited in the interior.  I wouldn't be surprised if BC becomes like Saskatchewan in the 20th century where NDP is natural governing party and wins most of the time while BC Conservatives win whenever they overstay welcome.  Heck maybe instead of uniting pro free enterprise vote as was in 20th century, it might be right wins when progressive vote is split.

[Flyersfan232]

 ods of the two right wing parties merging at some point?

[Oryxslayer]

ods of the two right wing parties merging at some point?

Probably 0 before the next election.  Libs/BCU have pride that comes with having formed many past majority governments,  conservatives seemingly have the winds of momentum.  More possible would be voters coalescing into one of the camps when an election starts.

[lilTommy]

ods of the two right wing parties merging at some point?

Probably 0 before the next election.  Libs/BCU have pride that comes with having formed many past majority governments,  conservatives seemingly have the winds of momentum.  More possible would be voters coalescing into one of the camps when an election starts.

Historically it would probably be over two election cycles. 1991 saw the utter defeat of SoCreds and the emergence of the BCLiberals as the main right-of-centre party. But the SoCreds still ran a campaing in 96 only calling for a unified right vote just before the vote. It worked to some degree but not in the SoCreds favour, the BCL had a slim win of the popular vote but still lost to the NDP 39 to 33.
Right now, we have two battling parties on the right both pulling about the same vote. Neither party is at a point to concede and call for unite the right since no party can really claim they are the best suited. After the next election we will see if either BCU or the CONs come out as a clear winner. BCU has the advantage of seats and being the official opposition but that's not really helping them in the polling. The NDP at +40% and neither right win party over 25% means another big NDP win likely. It will probably take a 91 result to see who folds.
OR the BCU can become of more moderate Liberal-esk party, move to the dead-center and try that route.

[DL]

ods of the two right wing parties merging at some point?

Its not clear to me that they will ever merge. The BC Cons are wayyy too populist and socially conservative for the base of the old BC Liberals/BCU who could best be described as Paul Martin era federal "business Liberal" types. I think that there are major, major divisions on key policies between BCU and BC Cons - not least that the BC Liberals created the carbon tax while the BC Cons are blatant climate change deniers!

Its probably more likely that with the rightwing hived off into the BC Cons - the BC United party will evolve into more of a centrist socially liberal, fiscally conservative party that will try to poach soft NDP votes and BC will become a three party province much like Ontario - only with a stronger NDP and a weaker conservative option.

[King of Kensington]

It's also a sign of the end of the "socialists vs. free enterprise" polarization that long characterized BC.   

The sharp class politics was evident  through the 1990s in provincial elections (just look at the 1996 provincial election in BC).  In fact "socialism vs. free enterprise" polarization made federal Liberals and Conservatives work together in Social Credit and BC Liberal Parties in order to defeat "the socialists."

But Horgan more or less completed the process of transforming the BC NDP into a big-tent, center-left party.  The business opposition to the NDP is pretty minimal at this point.  And there's too many differences between your traditional managerial conservatives and populist-right conservatives to all be in one party.

[adma]

Historically it would probably be over two election cycles. 1991 saw the utter defeat of SoCreds and the emergence of the BCLiberals as the main right-of-centre party. But the SoCreds still ran a campaing in 96 only calling for a unified right vote just before the vote. It worked to some degree but not in the SoCreds favour, the BCL had a slim win of the popular vote but still lost to the NDP 39 to 33.

Though even if the leader participated in the debate, the '96 SoCreds were really a zombie party a la the present-day Alberta Liberals--only half the seats even having candidates, all the incumbents either retiring or jumping to BCLib or BCReform (and the *latter* was more of the critical right-divider in that particular election).  So the pre-vote concession was just bowing to the inevitable...

[Hatman 🍁]

I guess you could say that the future of politics in BC will put the "British" back into "British Columbia"

[mileslunn]

I guess you could say that the future of politics in BC will put the "British" back into "British Columbia"

Just need NDP to change name to Labour Party and BC United to change to Liberal Democrats and would be totally British.  Actually kind of wondered why called NDP instead of Labour party as in other Anglosphere countries their main social democratic party is called Labour and usually around globe it is Labour, Socialist, or Social Democrat depending on country.  Guessing perhaps in North America socialism became a four letter word and any of the three names sounded too socialistic.

[King of Kensington]

The CCF was an alliance of agrarian and labor interests.  The transition to the NDP occurred in the 1960s which strengthened institutional ties with unions but also tried to become more of a party for "liberally minded Canadians."  The hope was it would displace the Liberals but that never occurred. 

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

The CCF was an alliance of agrarian and labor interests.  The transition to the NDP occurred in the 1960s which strengthened institutional ties with unions but also tried to become more of a party for "liberally minded Canadians."  The hope was it would displace the Liberals but that never occurred. 

I mean, in some provinces they have. Just not nationally.

[King of Kensington]

The name was decided at its founding convention in 1961.  The CCF was governing in Saskatchewan then but had yet to form government anywhere else.  They were the opposition party in BC, but even in Manitoba they were a third party.

[Tintrlvr]

The CCF was an alliance of agrarian and labor interests.  The transition to the NDP occurred in the 1960s which strengthened institutional ties with unions but also tried to become more of a party for "liberally minded Canadians."  The hope was it would displace the Liberals but that never occurred.  

There was also already an older Canadian political party called the Labour Party that had been active in the 1910s and 1920s but failed to break through to relevance and eventually disappeared in most provinces before the CCF was founded. Only the branch in Alberta survived long enough to merge into the provincial CCF. The CCF and NDP clearly wanted a new brand.

By the 1960s, "Labour" (and other simple ideological descriptors) was out of fashion everywhere globally as a party name; it had a very pre-WWII feel, and, while it continued to be used by parties that had established brands, new parties called "Labour" weren't really being founded anywhere. By contrast, "New Democratic Party" fits well with the generic, palatable-to-everyone naming strategy of political parties founded in the second half of the 20th century.

[King of Kensington]

It's interesting that Saskatchewan is where Canada's first "labour" party breakthrough occurred given how agrarian it was.  BC seemed better positioned for it, given its labor militancy and lack of an agrarian element.  Much has been written about it, of course.  Wheat farmers in Saskatchewan were an unusual constituency to turn to social democracy, but economic conditions made them open to radicalism.  One thing I read that was quite interesting was how pro-worker the farm organization was in Saskatchewan, which was apparently led by British industrial workers who took up farming.  In Alberta and Manitoba, agrarian and labor interests were antagonistic.  The grain growers group in Manitoba was hostile to the Winnipeg General Strike.

[adma]

There was also this foot-in-the-door matter

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal-Labour_(Canada)

[lilTommy]

It's interesting that Saskatchewan is where Canada's first "labour" party breakthrough occurred given how agrarian it was.  BC seemed better positioned for it, given its labor militancy and lack of an agrarian element.  Much has been written about it, of course.  Wheat farmers in Saskatchewan were an unusual constituency to turn to social democracy, but economic conditions made them open to radicalism.  One thing I read that was quite interesting was how pro-worker the farm organization was in Saskatchewan, which was apparently led by British industrial workers who took up farming.  In Alberta and Manitoba, agrarian and labor interests were antagonistic.  The grain growers group in Manitoba was hostile to the Winnipeg General Strike.

In 1952 the CCF in BC almost became the largest party, only 1 seat less the SoCreds, 18 vs 19. They still wouldn't have formed government since the Liberals had been in a coalition prior to that with the SoCreds. Funny enough the SoCreds governed with the support of the 1 Labour MLA. The CCF wouldn't come that close again until they were the NDP in 72 when they won.

In Ontario in 1943 the CCF blew up into the official opposition and was almost the largest party, 34 seats vs the new PCs with 38.  I think that was more of an anti-liberal reaction since the Liberals lost government then.

[CumbrianLefty]

The CCF was an alliance of agrarian and labor interests.  The transition to the NDP occurred in the 1960s which strengthened institutional ties with unions but also tried to become more of a party for "liberally minded Canadians."  The hope was it would displace the Liberals but that never occurred. 

They came tantalisingly close in 2011, of course. I wonder if a bit of a collective depression has taken hold of the party since that opportunity slipped away.

[lilTommy]

The CCF was an alliance of agrarian and labor interests.  The transition to the NDP occurred in the 1960s which strengthened institutional ties with unions but also tried to become more of a party for "liberally minded Canadians."  The hope was it would displace the Liberals but that never occurred. 

They came tantalisingly close in 2011, of course. I wonder if a bit of a collective depression has taken hold of the party since that opportunity slipped away.

My impression; depression? no, lamentation? ya more so. It's not that the opportunity slipped us, within the NDP it is more the loss of Jack Layton then the loss of forming government. Because I think many in the party thought 2015 with Layton as leader would be the real "our time" in government. 2011 although close to winning was a shock for the party to gain so many seats and novice MPs, so this would be the party's time to show they could be the government in waiting, and 2015 was a change election, just one the Liberals were able to capitalize on.

[Hatman 🍁]

If Canada had a Labour Party, would it be with our without the 'u'? In the early 20th century, the u was often dropped by labour candidates, probably for similar reasons as the Australian Labor Party.