French Presidential Election; Results Thread (1st round)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is there a link with circonscription results? Or is it a case of adding canton figures together?

[afleitch]

Is there a link with circonscription results? Or is it a case of adding canton figures together?

Le Monde have a good flash graphic - you click on each departement then on each seat.

http://www.lemonde.fr/web/panorama/0,11-0@2-823448,32-901390,0.html

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Thanks

[Hash]

Le Figaro is reporting this new poll by Sofres about the run-off:

http://www.lefigaro.fr/presidentielle-sondage/20070424.WWW000000442_sofres_duel_serre_entre_royal_et_sarkozy.html

This is somewhat good news for Royal
According to this, Sarkozy would get 51% and Royal 49%.
46% of Bayrou's voters said they would vote for Royal; only 25% for Sarkozy!!! and 29% didn't say.
62% of Le Pen voters would support Sarkozy and 16% Royal.
However, 72% of the people think Sarkozy is going to win at the end.

On another note, apparently Royal has offered Bayrou that she would name some UDF ministers if he supports her. Just as it was natural to predict, she's trying to move to the center now.

Yahyahyah... So what? An IPSOS poll from the 25th gives Sarkozy 53.5 and Royal 46.5. No reason to get amazed or to start pissing in your pants because of one poll.

[Verily]

Le Figaro is reporting this new poll by Sofres about the run-off:

http://www.lefigaro.fr/presidentielle-sondage/20070424.WWW000000442_sofres_duel_serre_entre_royal_et_sarkozy.html

This is somewhat good news for Royal
According to this, Sarkozy would get 51% and Royal 49%.
46% of Bayrou's voters said they would vote for Royal; only 25% for Sarkozy!!! and 29% didn't say.
62% of Le Pen voters would support Sarkozy and 16% Royal.
However, 72% of the people think Sarkozy is going to win at the end.

On another note, apparently Royal has offered Bayrou that she would name some UDF ministers if he supports her. Just as it was natural to predict, she's trying to move to the center now.

Yahyahyah... So what? An IPSOS poll from the 25th gives Sarkozy 53.5 and Royal 46.5. No reason to get amazed or to start pissing in your pants because of one poll.

Don't count your chickens yet. The newest poll from TNS-Sofres shows Sarkozy 51, Royal 49.

[Hash]

Let's hope Bayrou is smart (could he be?) and doesn't go to either side. If I was him, i'd shut my trap and tell my voters to vote for who they want. If he does choose a side, the other side will make him and the UDF pay dearly.

[Hash]

Le Figaro is reporting this new poll by Sofres about the run-off:

http://www.lefigaro.fr/presidentielle-sondage/20070424.WWW000000442_sofres_duel_serre_entre_royal_et_sarkozy.html

This is somewhat good news for Royal
According to this, Sarkozy would get 51% and Royal 49%.
46% of Bayrou's voters said they would vote for Royal; only 25% for Sarkozy!!! and 29% didn't say.
62% of Le Pen voters would support Sarkozy and 16% Royal.
However, 72% of the people think Sarkozy is going to win at the end.

On another note, apparently Royal has offered Bayrou that she would name some UDF ministers if he supports her. Just as it was natural to predict, she's trying to move to the center now.

Yahyahyah... So what? An IPSOS poll from the 25th gives Sarkozy 53.5 and Royal 46.5. No reason to get amazed or to start pissing in your pants because of one poll.

Don't count your chickens yet. The newest poll from TNS-Sofres shows Sarkozy 51, Royal 49.

I know. But its only ONE poll out of the 6 million to be published soon.

[afleitch]

Sarkozy has to win. I dread to think of a France under Royal.

[Hash]

What "good" things has she done in her own region, Poitou-Charentes? Nothing world-famous atleast.

[Hash]

I'e been looking at my departement, 35, Ille-et-Vilaine (Never lived there but my French side of the family is from I-e-V). I-e-v was VERY tight. Royal won with 28.22, Sarkozy got 28.12, Bayrou 23.80. Sarkozy won my "home town" (family's hometown).

I think I-e-V could go Sarkozy in R2.

[Hash]

In Paris 15th circonscription,Royal got only 8.83. Sarkozy won 68.89... The 15th circonscription is part of the 16th arrondisement.

[minionofmidas]

Sarkozy did insanely well in West Paris.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sarkozy did insanely well in West Paris.

Not a surprise though; his constituency (what's that in French again? circonspection or something like that?) is just next-door. Quite a lot of that sort of thing in voting patterns this time round.

[Cubby]

Sarkozy has to win. I dread to think of a France under Royal.

Like that would be any worse than France is now.

Didn't you see what happened when they tried to reform the under-26 labor laws last year? With all the reforms Sarkozy will try, there will be non-stop strikes and protests. There's no point in electing him if people will hate every action he takes.

I was comparing the final predictions of 12 posters, and found the following accuracy ranking (using BBC numbers).

Tied for first place, Democratic Hawk, Keystone Phil and yours truly.

Tied for fourth, Kireev and Tobias Beecher.

I can't believe I accurately predicted an election! My 2004 USA prediction was terrible. I had Kerry winning OH and FL and losing MN, WI and IA

My Le Pen prediction was almost double what he got, but otherwise it was pretty good.

2 Questions about regional voting patterns:

Why does Alsace-Lorraine hate the Socialists?

Al said Southwest France votes Socialist due to tradition, could you elaborate?

[Hatman 🍁]

Royal has to win. I dread to think of a France under Sarkozy.

[MasterJedi]

Royal has to win. I dread to think of a France under Sarkozy.

Give it time and you'll find out.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In Paris 15th circonscription,Royal got only 8.83. Sarkozy won 68.89... The 15th circonscription is part of the 16th arrondisement.

Why on earth have you got a picture of Georges Marchais in your sig?

"Je n'en ai discuté avec personne, mais c'est la position de mon parti!"

[Hatman 🍁]

Royal has to win. I dread to think of a France under Sarkozy.

Give it time and you'll find out.

Fermez-vous votre bouche, Monsieur Jedi!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why does Alsace-Lorraine hate the Socialists?

Alsace is heavily Catholic (which in a French context means heavily observant, as opposed to being anti-clerical) meaning that it votes for the Right. There are other reasons for it as well IIRC, though I can't remember them that well.
Lorraine doesn't hate the Socialists; well the heavily industrialised parts don't anyway. Hey, the Communists used to poll well in the far north of Lorraine!

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The SFIO (the pre-Mitterand socialist party; actually a rural centrist party with a curious love of overblown pseudo-Marxist rhetoric) was strong in the southwest of France, largely as a result of a network of strong party bosses in the area in the inter-war years keeping the corpse of the SFIO alive (remember this is the same time in which the PCF, basically, became the party of the industrial working class). The orginal reasons for SFIO strength there have a lot to do with the areas distance from Paris (Socialism being an attractive way of protesting) and, in some areas, religious/anti-clerical/sectarian geography (though you have to be careful with that. The link is stronger with Communist support in the South IIRC).

Somewhere I have some old maps. Wait a sec...

[afleitch]

The PS was very much Mitterand's personal vehicle (in the same way the RPR was for Chirac) Both blocs have failed to really move on from the end of their respective figureheads reign (after the PS false start under Jospin)

The UMP is the most volatile, should Sarkozy fail to be elected, it's likely that Bayrou will do some 'poaching' (similar to what RPR did to the UDF in 2002) and I can see the party collapse and reform.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

These three maps are from a book on electoral geography published in the '70's. Any mistakes are thus not my fault:



And this is a map I found on teh interwebs:

[Hatman 🍁]

The last two maps are rather similar for obvious reasons. I wonder why France is so divisive on the issue of religion.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I wonder what was with that strong Communist and Catholic state.

[Hash]

Marchais? Because I think he's funny. And I might keep him there in souvenir for the PCF cause with 1.9%, they're not going anywhere.

[Cubby]

Thanks for the info Al usually I find that old maps and texts are a better source of information than the flashier graphics used today.

I didn't know Brittany was so conservative and observant-Catholic. This changes my impression of them. I thought they were rebels.