French Presidential Election; 2nd round thread

[Hash]

And if DSK, Fabius, and company don't stop destroying themselves, they'll pay dearly at the polls.

Could the MD (if some of their candidates reach the second round) split the centre-left vote, seeing how much Bayrou is moving to the left. Will a MD candidate be able to win in the second round, i've heard people say that no they won't be able to.

[minionofmidas]

And if DSK, Fabius, and company don't stop destroying themselves, they'll pay dearly at the polls.

Could the MD (if some of their candidates reach the second round) split the centre-left vote, seeing how much Bayrou is moving to the left. Will a MD candidate be able to win in the second round, i've heard people say that no they won't be able to.

Yes, they will. A number of them will be reelected on personal votes.

[minionofmidas]

Wait, there are French people in Texas?

get mah guns, cletus

Of course.  After all, Paris is in Texas.

And I thought it was in Illinois.

http://www.ci.paris.il.us/

There are 19 Parises in the US, including two in Wisconsin. There's also a West Paris and a South Paris, both in Maine (which also has a Paris).

[minionofmidas]

On a simplified assumption that all of Le Pen's, de Villiers', and Nihous' voters went for Sarko, and all the leftist voters went for Royal, she took about 57% of Bayrou's vote. I think I'll do some calculations on how this figure varies regionally...

On average, and with numerous exceptions, Sarkozy took a larger share of Bayrou's votes in areas where he was also strong in the first round.

It's fairly normally distributed - every percentage from 40 to 47 for Sarkozy occurs at least 5 times, every percentage from 31 to 52 occurs at least once. Add Var at 54 to that, and that leaves the following remarkable outliers:

High share of Bayrou's vote to Sarkozy:
58 Alpes-Maritimes, Haute-Savoie (poshest of southeastern départements. Not a coincidence.)
60 Bas-Rhin, Polynésie
61 Haut-Rhin
71 Nouvelle Calédonie

Low share:
23 Saint Pierre et Miquelon (turnout up by more than 10 points)
21 Aisne
20 Somme
16 Mayotte (turnout below 50% on both rounds)
14 Pas de Calais

Now just marvel at this three département cluster of Aisne, Somme and Pas de Calais. This is an area where Sarkozy did slightly subpar in both rounds (although he won two of them), Royal did slightly subpar in the first round, Bayrou did very badly, Le Pen did very well, and the extreme left did very well. And also where Sarkozy did noticeably better than Chirac in 95.

I have a feeling that it's not Bayrou's voters at all that were more leftist here than elsewhere, but Le Pen's voters.

[minionofmidas]

I can't find the second round by circonscription, but here's the first, compared to the 2002 legislative election (2nd round except where none held)

Of circonscriptions won by candidates described as UMP, Sarkozy won 315 and Royal won 36.
PS, Royal won 99, Sarkozy won 40, and Bayrou 2.
UDF, Sarkozy won 24, Royal 5 and Bayrou 2.
PCF, Royal won 17 and Sarkozy 4. Royal also won the circonscription held by a member of the Communist Party of La Réunion (PCR).
PRG, Sarkozy won 5 and Royal 2. Sarkozy also won Taubira's seat - she was described on the ballot as the Walwari candidate, but had run for the PRG in the presidential election.
Greens, Royal won all three.
Martinique regional parties (MIM and BPM), Royal won both.
diverse other party labels identifiable as right-wing (DL, RPF, MPF, "UMP-UDF-RPF"), Sarkozy won all 7.
diverse party labels that I can't make heads or tails off (NC, SE, CSD), Sarkozy won all 5.
"diverse right", Sarkozy won three and Royal two.
"diverse left", Sarkozy won both.

[Umengus]

Based on final predictions and unofficial results

Tobias Beecher was first.

Sam Spade was second.

Phil and I shared third place.

Gustaf  and Lewis shared fourth.

Gabu was fifth.

Sarkozy was sixth.

Tender Branson was seventh.

Bacon King was eighth.

Couldn't find predictions for Umengus or Dave.

Everyone correctly predicted the winner, and most predictions were acceptably close to actual results.

I think that my prediction was 53,4%

To be honest, the prediction which was important was for the 1 turn.

[Gustaf]

So I wouldn't start telling me how I've never met anyone who happened to be French or insinuate that I'm clearly not worldly enough to engage in such a discussion.

Have you actually known any, personally?

Thankfully, no. 

[CARLHAYDEN]

Based on final predictions and unofficial results

Tobias Beecher was first.

Sam Spade was second.

Phil and I shared third place.

Gustaf  and Lewis shared fourth.

Gabu was fifth.

Sarkozy was sixth.

Tender Branson was seventh.

Bacon King was eighth.

Couldn't find predictions for Umengus or Dave.

Everyone correctly predicted the winner, and most predictions were acceptably close to actual results.

I think that my prediction was 53,4%

To be honest, the prediction which was important was for the 1 turn.

Sorry that I missed it.

A very accurate prediction.

[Keystone Phil]

So I wouldn't start telling me how I've never met anyone who happened to be French or insinuate that I'm clearly not worldly enough to engage in such a discussion.

Have you actually known any, personally?

Thankfully, no. 

Well, I don't know any personally (which was the question) but I have met and dealt with enough of them. 

I love continuing this conversation as I listen to one of my favorite songs - La Marseillaise. 

[Gustaf]

So I wouldn't start telling me how I've never met anyone who happened to be French or insinuate that I'm clearly not worldly enough to engage in such a discussion.

Have you actually known any, personally?

Thankfully, no. 

Well, I don't know any personally (which was the question) but I have met and dealt with enough of them. 

I love continuing this conversation as I listen to one of my favorite songs - La Marseillaise. 

It has never crossed your mind that big city people tend to be rude in every country and that Parisian behaviour reflects mainly that? (i.e. Peking, New York, Berlin, Stockholm are all in their respective countries known for the same thing)

[Keystone Phil]

It has never crossed your mind that big city people tend to be rude in every country and that Parisian behaviour reflects mainly that? (i.e. Peking, New York, Berlin, Stockholm are all in their respective countries known for the same thing)

I understand that but I think that the French, overall, have quite an attitude. Like I said, I have dealt with the French outside of Paris.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It has never crossed your mind that big city people tend to be rude in every country and that Parisian behaviour reflects mainly that? (i.e. Peking, New York, Berlin, Stockholm are all in their respective countries known for the same thing)

I understand that but I think that the French, overall, have quite an attitude. Like I said, I have dealt with the French outside of Paris.

I understand that but I think that the Americans, overall, have quite an attitude. Like I said, I have dealt with the Americans outside New York.

I understand that but I think that the Italians, overall, have quite an attitude. Like I said, I have dealt with the Italians outside Rome.

[Keystone Phil]

It has never crossed your mind that big city people tend to be rude in every country and that Parisian behaviour reflects mainly that? (i.e. Peking, New York, Berlin, Stockholm are all in their respective countries known for the same thing)

I understand that but I think that the French, overall, have quite an attitude. Like I said, I have dealt with the French outside of Paris.

I understand that but I think that the Americans, overall, have quite an attitude. Like I said, I have dealt with the Americans outside New York.

I understand that but I think that the Italians, overall, have quite an attitude. Like I said, I have dealt with the Italians outside Rome.

And you know what, Al? I know you think you are going to catch me being hypocritical but I honestly don't care if you really feel that way. You know as well as I do that the French have a very nasty disposition towards Americans.

You keep going after me over this because first you thought you'd get me by saying my problem was just with Parisians. When I complain about the French that can be from any other region of France, you mock me and try to use my words against me. Now I can't dislike the French unless they are from the capital city so you can simply blame it on where they are specifically from?

Think what you want about Americans and Italians. If they rub you the wrong way after your encounters with them, more power to you to say that they bother you.

And please stop this holier than thou business with this subject. I love how everyone jumps at the opportunity to say that I am that way yet refuse to admit when they act is such a way. You have your own personal prejudices, Al, and so does everyone that gave me a hard time on this subject. I'm not saying that these prejudices are a good thing but they are reality. When you have used stereotypes against Italians in the past in commentary about Italian politics, I didn't really care. Please act the same when dealing with me and my opinions of the French.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

I'm pretty sure al isn't the only one to come out of an encounter with a disfavourable opinion of native Italians.....

[Keystone Phil]

I'm pretty sure al isn't the only one to come out of an encounter with a disfavourable opinion of native Italians.....

Never said or assumed that he did. In fact, I have encountered a few also. My point is, however, that we all have our prejudices that we shouldn't necessarily see as good things but they do exist. For people to beat up on me over this was really ridiculous. Like I said, one on one, I treat people as individuals and won't say "Oh, you're French? Ok, don't bother with me because I hate you already" but overall, I don't like the French. Overall, you don't like certain people, too.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Actually I've no problem with Americans or Italians. Just pointing out the hypocrisy, that's all

[Keystone Phil]

Actually I've no problem with Americans or Italians. Just pointing out the hypocrisy, that's all

Where was the hypocrisy? You clearly didn't read my post. Do me a favor and actually read what I said before you point out a double standard.

[Gustaf]

It has never crossed your mind that big city people tend to be rude in every country and that Parisian behaviour reflects mainly that? (i.e. Peking, New York, Berlin, Stockholm are all in their respective countries known for the same thing)

I understand that but I think that the French, overall, have quite an attitude. Like I said, I have dealt with the French outside of Paris.

I understand that but I think that the Americans, overall, have quite an attitude. Like I said, I have dealt with the Americans outside New York.

I understand that but I think that the Italians, overall, have quite an attitude. Like I said, I have dealt with the Italians outside Rome.

And you know what, Al? I know you think you are going to catch me being hypocritical but I honestly don't care if you really feel that way. You know as well as I do that the French have a very nasty disposition towards Americans.

You keep going after me over this because first you thought you'd get me by saying my problem was just with Parisians. When I complain about the French that can be from any other region of France, you mock me and try to use my words against me. Now I can't dislike the French unless they are from the capital city so you can simply blame it on where they are specifically from?

Think what you want about Americans and Italians. If they rub you the wrong way after your encounters with them, more power to you to say that they bother you.

And please stop this holier than thou business with this subject. I love how everyone jumps at the opportunity to say that I am that way yet refuse to admit when they act is such a way. You have your own personal prejudices, Al, and so does everyone that gave me a hard time on this subject. I'm not saying that these prejudices are a good thing but they are reality. When you have used stereotypes against Italians in the past in commentary about Italian politics, I didn't really care. Please act the same when dealing with me and my opinions of the French.

Maybe the French have a nasty disposition against Americans because they hate them. They probably have good reason to do it since they met that nasty cab driver in New York that one time.

[Keystone Phil]

Maybe the French have a nasty disposition against Americans because they hate them. They probably have good reason to do it since they met that nasty cab driver in New York that one time.

Again, you're comparing this to "one" event which was never my argument. Listen, I can't continue this if everyone is going to be stubborn and ignore that these incidents have happened more than once and not just with Parisians.

We're way off topic anyway so I propose that we drop this.

[Hash]

New thread for legislative elections to be created.

[Angel of Death]

I guess some here have yet to forgive France for being right about Iraq.

[KEmperor]

Paris does not = France

They kicked it out?

[Hash]

http://www.ipsos.fr/CanalIpsos/poll/8450.asp#8

[minionofmidas]

It has never crossed your mind that big city people tend to be rude in every country and that Parisian behaviour reflects mainly that? (i.e. Peking, New York, Berlin, Stockholm are all in their respective countries known for the same thing)

I understand that but I think that the French, overall, have quite an attitude. Like I said, I have dealt with the French outside of Paris.

I understand that but I think that the Americans, overall, have quite an attitude. Like I said, I have dealt with the Americans outside New York.

I understand that but I think that the Italians, overall, have quite an attitude. Like I said, I have dealt with the Italians outside Rome.

And you know what, Al? I know you think you are going to catch me being hypocritical but I honestly don't care if you really feel that way. You know as well as I do that the French have a very nasty disposition towards Americans.

You keep going after me over this because first you thought you'd get me by saying my problem was just with Parisians. When I complain about the French that can be from any other region of France, you mock me and try to use my words against me. Now I can't dislike the French unless they are from the capital city so you can simply blame it on where they are specifically from?

Think what you want about Americans and Italians. If they rub you the wrong way after your encounters with them, more power to you to say that they bother you.

And please stop this holier than thou business with this subject. I love how everyone jumps at the opportunity to say that I am that way yet refuse to admit when they act is such a way. You have your own personal prejudices, Al, and so does everyone that gave me a hard time on this subject. I'm not saying that these prejudices are a good thing but they are reality. When you have used stereotypes against Italians in the past in commentary about Italian politics, I didn't really care. Please act the same when dealing with me and my opinions of the French.

Maybe the French have a nasty disposition against Americans because they hate them. They probably have good reason to do it since they met that nasty cab driver in New York that one time.

Main problem with the argument is of course that the French have nothing of the kind.

*Some* French have a *slightly* nasty disposition to arrogant people who believe that everybody understands or at least should be treated as if he understood English though.
Not that I can blame'em.

[HardRCafé]

I hereby revoke every churlish remark I've ever made about those lovely Gallic people.