CO: Bob Schaffer announces Senate run

[Smash255]

Uh, what the hell has been your deal recently with the attacks towards me? I'm calling it as they are. Colorado isn't going our way but I think Louisiana will. How is that me just seeing everything as doom and gloom or not being a Republican?

I did not mean it as an attack, but Rawlings is right.  Hell, you conceded the John Warner seat the other day.

Rawlings is probably one of three people that think Udall won't win....

Not only is Phil on the side of most people on what will happen in the Senate Race in 08, he is on the side with most people in his party on the future of that seat ie their is none...

Regarding his comments on VA.  For starters no John Warner running obviously makes the seat quite interesting,  The Dems probably have a slightly deeper field with kaine and well of course if Mark Warner decides to jump in (John Warner not running increases the chance of Mark Warner running again and no one is going to beat Mark Warner period. 

Secondly he could also have been talking about Davis's congressional seat.   The chances of the GOP retaining that seat without Davis is slim to nil. 

[Smash255]

Uh, what the hell has been your deal recently with the attacks towards me? I'm calling it as they are. Colorado isn't going our way but I think Louisiana will. How is that me just seeing everything as doom and gloom or not being a Republican?

I did not mean it as an attack, but Rawlings is right.  Hell, you conceded the John Warner seat the other day.

No, I didn't concede it totally but it is probably gone. It looks like he won't be running again and you know the Dems are going to do everything they can to get Mark Warner to run. If he doesn't go for it, we likely have the upper hand but if Governor Kaine runs, we might have a problem hanging on.

Secondly he could also have been talking about Davis's congressional seat.   The chances of the GOP retaining that seat without Davis is slim to nil. 

No, I was talking about the Senate seat. I don't know much about Davis' House seat.

Davis's seat narrowly went to Bush in 04 (less than 1 point), but is in the heavily Dem trending Northern VA (covers portion of Fairfax and Prince William)  He won last year by 11, but outspent his opponent by about 9-1 in order to do so (3.3 mil to 360k)

[Smash255]

Indeed, and it doesn't make the "We'll lose Virginia" prediction any more accurate than the "We'll win Pennsylvania" prediction.  It's trading one extreme for the other extreme, and a very depressing ride in the meantime.

I am far from the last one to defend Phil, I argued with him as much as anyone regarding PA last year.  However, he doesn't seem to be going from one extreme to another, he believes the GOP will win LA for one example. 

He seems to have explained himself quite well on why he thnks the VA Senate Seat will go Democratic.  He has stated he thinks the Dems will get Warner to run.  Believing Mark Warner if he does run would win is not being extreme, its actually being realistic, not thinking Mark Warner would win or even thinking it would be a tossup if he ran is what extreme would be.