Wales 2007; results thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Call this a sample of what will (hopefully) be soon to come:



Interestingly enough, so far I've not seen any part take a majority of the regional vote in any constituency (though it's possible that Labour took a majority either or both of Rhondda and Cynon Valley. But as I said earlier, results for SWC can't be found right now).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, this too:

[Harry Hayfield]

Here we are Mid and West Wales (constituency and regional)

Constituency (% shares):
Brecon and Radnorshire: Con 34% Lab 9% Lib Dem 52% Plaid 5%
Carmarthen East: Con 16% Lab 25% Lib Dem 6% Plaid 53%
Carmarthen West: Con 30% Lab 30% Lib Dem 6% Plaid 29% Ind 5%
Ceredigion: Con 8% Lab 5% Lib Dem 36% Plaid 49% Ind 2%
Dwyfor: Con 20% Lab 12% Lib Dem 8% Plaid 60%
Llanelli: Con 10% Lab 36% Lib Dem 4% Plaid 50%
Montgomeryshire: Con 30% Lab 7% Lib Dem 39% Plaid 14% UKIP 10%
Preseli: Con 39% Lab 27% Lib Dem 9% Plaid 25%

Regional (% shares):
Brecon and Radnorshire: Con 33% Lab 13% Lib Dem 32% Plaid 8% Ind 1% UKIP 5% Others 9%
Carmarthen East: Con 15% Lab 21% Lib Dem 4% Plaid 44% Ind 3% UKIP 3% Others 9%
Carmarthen West: Con 29% Lab 25% Lib Dem 6% Plaid 26% Ind 1% UKIP 4% Others 9%
Ceredigion: Con 13% Lab 8% Lib Dem 26% Plaid 42% Ind 1% UKIP 2% Others 9%
Dwyfor: Con 19% Lab 13% Lib Dem 5% Plaid 50% Ind 1% UKIP 3% Others 9%
Llanelli: Con 10% Lab 32% Lib Dem 4% Plaid 40% Ind 1% UKIP 3% Others 10%
Montgomeryshire: Con 32% Lab 8% Lib Dem 23% Plaid 16% Ind 1% UKIP 8% Others 12%
Preseli: Con 34% Lab 24% Lib Dem 7% Plaid 22% Ind 1% UKIP 4% Others 8%

[minionofmidas]

What odds on a Labortory government now?

0%, same as always. Everyone in South Wales Labour hates the Tories too much for it to be even slightly possible.

As Plaid and the LDs have pissed off their voters, clearly it is now Labour's turn to do so though?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What odds on a Labortory government now?

0%, same as always. Everyone in South Wales Labour hates the Tories too much for it to be even slightly possible.

As Plaid and the LDs have pissed off their voters, clearly it is now Labour's turn to do so though?

Out of honour you mean?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And it's all over. Morgan was the only candidate.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The LibDem Special Conference thing is going on today. I've no idea whether or not it will reject the idea of a crock-of-**** coalition or not, and I'm not even sure whether it even matters anymore; does anyone else really want to deal with the LibDems in their current (rather sad) state? (I hope for the credibility of devolution that the answer is a firm "no", but that's just my opinion). It has the potential to get rather nasty though.

Still, there remains a possibility that if the vote goes a certain way, that the whole post-election-fiasco could start up again at some point.

[Hash]

Could someone explain to me what's all this post-election fiasco about?

[Harry Hayfield]

In a nutshell as I understand it, because Nick Bourne (Con 12) is convinced that a rainbow coalition (Con 12 + Plaid 15 + Lib Dem 6 = 33) it sounds as though Mike German wants to be part of a government at all costs. However, what he needs to remember is that the Lib Dems lead (as opposed to control) 4 councils in Wales all of which are considered Labour areas in Westminster terms.

[Harry Hayfield]

BREAKING NEWS

Welsh Liberal Democrats have agreed to revive plans for a coalition assembly government with Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Conservatives. A special conference voted by 125 to 77 in favour of resuming talks with other parties.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Those numbers aren't really a surprise. But I don't think we'll see things change seriously for a while; attempting to topple Rhodri right now would look very, very bad and I don't think even the unholy trinity of IWJ/Bourne/German are that thick.
I suspect they'll make a move round budget time. Hopefully some good relations between Rhodri et al and the left wing of Plaid will have been established by then.

The local elections next year are going to be "fun" though...

[Harry Hayfield]

I have just posted the following on Betsan's Welsh Politics Blog:

"I did not vote for a Plaid / Con / Lib Dem coalition, therefore why not have the election again, this time with only the top two candidates eligible for nomination"

Could someone therefore make a guess of what would happen if that applied to the constituencies?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Regional results for the three regions that I have figures for:

South Wales West

Aberavon: Lab 45.5%, Plaid 17.6%, Con 10%, LDem 8.7%, BNP 5.8%, Greens 3.2%, UKIP 3.2%, SLP 2%, WCP 1.1%, CPB 0.3%
Bridgend: Lab 31.5%, Con 23.6%, LDem 15.3%, Plaid 11.6%, BNP 5.2%, UKIP 4.2%, Greens 3.4%, SLP 1.2%, WCP 1.1%, CPB 0.3%
Gower: Lab 28.4%, Con 27.4%, Plaid 17.1%, LDem 9.7%, Greens 5.5%, BNP 5%, UKIP 2.6%, SLP 1.1%, WCP 1%, CPB 0.2%
Neath: Lab 37.5%, Plaid 29.2%, Con 10%, LDem 7.2%, BNP 4.8%, Greens 3.4%, UKIP 3.2%, SLP 1.5%, WCP 1.2%, CPB 0.3% 
Ogmore: Lab 46.8%, Plaid 16%, Con 10.5%, LDem 8.1%, BNP 4.7%, UKIP 3.6%, Greens 2.7%, SLP 1.9%, WCP 0.7%, CPB 0.4%
Swansea East: Lab 37.6%, LDem 17%, Plaid 15.5%, Con 8.9%, BNP 8.1%, UKIP 4.9%, Greens 2.7%, SLP 1.3%, WCP 1%, CPB 0.3%
Swansea West: Lab 25.7%, LDem 21.4%, Con 18.3%, Plaid 15.8%, BNP 5.2%, Greens 4.8%, UKIP 3.9%, SLP 1.1%, WCP 1%, CPB 0.4%

Mid and West Wales

Brecon & Radnor: Con 32.9%, LDem 31.4%, Lab 12.7%, Plaid 7.9%, UKIP 4.5%, Greens 4.3%, BNP 2.7%, SLP 0.9%, WCP 0.7%, CPB 0.3%
Carmarthen East & Dinefwr: Plaid 44.3%, Lab 21.5%, Con 14.6%, LDem 4.2%, Greens 4.1%, UKIP 3.2%, BNP 2.6%, SLP 1.1%, WCP 0.6%, CPB 0.3%
Carmarthen West & South Pembroke: Con 28.5%, Plaid 26.4%, Lab 25.2%, LDem 5.7%, Greens 3.7%, UKIP 3.7%, BNP 2.9%, SLP 1%, WCP 0.6%, CPB 0.2%
Ceredigion: Plaid 41.6%, LDem 25.9%, Con 12.5%, Lab 7.8%, Greens 4.6%, UKIP 2.2%, BNP 1.8%, WCP 0.9%, SLP 0.7%, CPB 0.3%
Llanelli: Plaid 40.5%, Labour 32.4%, Con 10%, BNP 4.2%, LDem 3.5%, UKIP 2.8%, Greens 2.7%, SLP 1.3%, WCP 0.7%, CPB 0.2%
Dwyfor Meirionnydd: Plaid 49.7%, Con 18.6%, Lab 13.3%, LDem 5.2%, Greens 4.1%, UKIP 2.7%, BNP 2.5%, SLP 1.4%, WCP 0.4%, CPB 0.3%
Montgomery: Con 32.3%, LDem 22.9%, Plaid 15.5%, UKIP 8.3%, Lab 8%, Greens 4.8%, BNP 4.8%, WCP 0.7%, SLP 0.5%, CPB 0.4%
Preseli Pembroke: Con 34.5%, Lab 23.9%, Plaid 22.3%, LDem 6.6%, Greens 3.9%, UKIP 3.5%, BNP 2.4%, SLP 1%, WCP 0.5%, CPB 0.2%

South Wales East

Blaenau Gwent: Lab 43.8%, Plaid 13.3%, LDem 8.35%, Ind 7.3%, Con 6.8%, UKIP 6.3%, BNP 5.6%, SLP 2.6%, WCP 2.5%, Greens 2.3%, ED 0.3%, CPB 0.3%
Caerphilly: Lab 37.3%, Plaid 24.1%, Con 12.1%, LDem 6.1%, BNP 5.3%, UKIP 4.6%, Ind 4.1%, Greens 2.8%, SLP 1.3%, WCP 1.3%, CPB 0.3%, ED 0.2%
Islwyn: Lab 42.3%, Plaid 21.5%, Con 9.7%, LDem 6.3%, UKIP 5.2%, BNP 5.1%, Greens 2.7%, Ind 2.6%, SLP 1.8%, WCP 1.6%, ED 0.4%, CPB 0.2%
Merthyr: Lab 42.1%, Plaid 16.8%, LDem 14%, Con 7.7%, UKIP 5.6%, BNP 4.4%, Ind 2.5%, Greens 2.2%, SLP 2.0%, WCP 1.3%, CPB 0.6%, ED 0.1%
Monmouth: Con 46.2%, Lab 20.6%, LDem 11.3%, Plaid 5.9%, Greens 4.2%, UKIP 3.7%, BNP 2.9%, ED 2.1%, SLP 1.3%, WCP 0.7%, Ind 0.6%, CPB 0.0%
Newport East: Lab 30.7%, LDem 22.8%, Con 21.7%, Plaid 8.6%, UKIP 3.5%, BNP 3.4%, CPB 2.3%, Greens 2.2%, SLP 1.4%, ED 1.3%, Ind 0.9%, WCP 0.8%
Newport West: Lab 33%, Con 30.7%, LDem 10.6%, Plaid 8.1%, BNP 5.3%, UKIP 3.5%, Greens 2.9%, SLP 2%, ED 1.5%, WCP 1%, Ind 0.7%, CPB 0.2%
Torfaen: Lab 40.4%, Con 17.4%, Plaid 11.1%, LDem 11.1%, BNP 5.6%, UKIP 4.4%, Greens 2.9%, SLP 2.6%, Ind 2%, WCP 1.2%, ED 0.6%, CPB 0.4%

Constituency results (for comparision) can be found here: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/vote2007/welshasssembly_english/html/region_99999.stm

Attempts will be made, from tomorrow onwards, to get hold of the figures for SWC and NW.

[minionofmidas]

Regional
Aberavon: Lab 45.5%, Plaid 17.6%, Con 10%, LDem 8.7%, BNP 5.8%, Greens 3.2%, UKIP 3.2%, SLP 2%, WCP 1.1%, CPB 0.3%
Bridgend: Lab 31.5%, Con 23.6%, LDem 15.3%, Plaid 11.6%, BNP 5.2%, UKIP 4.2%, Greens 3.4%, SLP 1.2%, WCP 1.1%, CPB 0.3%
Gower: Lab 28.4%, Con 27.4%, Plaid 17.1%, LDem 9.7%, Greens 5.5%, BNP 5%, UKIP 2.6%, SLP 1.1%, WCP 1%, CPB 0.2%
Neath: Lab 37.5%, Plaid 29.2%, Con 10%, LDem 7.2%, BNP 4.8%, Greens 3.4%, UKIP 3.2%, SLP 1.5%, WCP 1.2%, CPB 0.3% 
Ogmore: Lab 46.8%, Plaid 16%, Con 10.5%, LDem 8.1%, BNP 4.7%, UKIP 3.6%, Greens 2.7%, SLP 1.9%, WCP 0.7%, CPB 0.4%
Swansea East: Lab 37.6%, LDem 17%, Plaid 15.5%, Con 8.9%, BNP 8.1%, UKIP 4.9%, Greens 2.7%, SLP 1.3%, WCP 1%, CPB 0.3%
Swansea West: Lab 25.7%, LDem 21.4%, Con 18.3%, Plaid 15.8%, BNP 5.2%, Greens 4.8%, UKIP 3.9%, SLP 1.1%, WCP 1%, CPB 0.4%

Constituency
Aberavon: Lab 49.3%, Plaid 17.3%, NPTR 12.5%, Con 9.7%, LD 7.1%, NMBP 4.1%
Bridgend: Lab 40.3%, Con 29.9%, LD 15.2%, PC 14.7%
Gower: Lab 34.2%, Con 29.8%, PC 18.5%, LD 10.6%, UKIP 6.9%
Neath: Lab 43.4%, PC 35.7%, Con 11.7%, LD 9.2%
Ogmore: Lab 51.7%, PC 17.0%, Con 11.7%, i 10.3%, LD 9.4%
Swansea E: Lab 41.5%, LD 17.5%, PC 15.5%, Con 9.8%, i 7.8%, 5.7%, 2.2%
Swansea W: Lab 32.3%, LD 25.7%, Con 19.1%, PC 15.7%, UKIP 7.2%

Regional
Blaenau Gwent: Lab 43.8%, Plaid 13.3%, LDem 8.35%, Ind 7.3%, Con 6.8%, UKIP 6.3%, BNP 5.6%, SLP 2.6%, WCP 2.5%, Greens 2.3%, ED 0.3%, CPB 0.3%
Caerphilly: Lab 37.3%, Plaid 24.1%, Con 12.1%, LDem 6.1%, BNP 5.3%, UKIP 4.6%, Ind 4.1%, Greens 2.8%, SLP 1.3%, WCP 1.3%, CPB 0.3%, ED 0.2%
Islwyn: Lab 42.3%, Plaid 21.5%, Con 9.7%, LDem 6.3%, UKIP 5.2%, BNP 5.1%, Greens 2.7%, Ind 2.6%, SLP 1.8%, WCP 1.6%, ED 0.4%, CPB 0.2%
Merthyr: Lab 42.1%, Plaid 16.8%, LDem 14%, Con 7.7%, UKIP 5.6%, BNP 4.4%, Ind 2.5%, Greens 2.2%, SLP 2.0%, WCP 1.3%, CPB 0.6%, ED 0.1%
Monmouth: Con 46.2%, Lab 20.6%, LDem 11.3%, Plaid 5.9%, Greens 4.2%, UKIP 3.7%, BNP 2.9%, ED 2.1%, SLP 1.3%, WCP 0.7%, Ind 0.6%, CPB 0.0%
Newport East: Lab 30.7%, LDem 22.8%, Con 21.7%, Plaid 8.6%, UKIP 3.5%, BNP 3.4%, CPB 2.3%, Greens 2.2%, SLP 1.4%, ED 1.3%, Ind 0.9%, WCP 0.8%
Newport West: Lab 33%, Con 30.7%, LDem 10.6%, Plaid 8.1%, BNP 5.3%, UKIP 3.5%, Greens 2.9%, SLP 2%, ED 1.5%, WCP 1%, Ind 0.7%, CPB 0.2%
Torfaen: Lab 40.4%, Con 17.4%, Plaid 11.1%, LDem 11.1%, BNP 5.6%, UKIP 4.4%, Greens 2.9%, SLP 2.6%, Ind 2%, WCP 1.2%, ED 0.6%, CPB 0.4%

Constituency:
Blaenau Gwent: i 54.1%, Lab 31.3%, LD 5.7%, PC 4.8%, Con 4.0%
Caerphilly: Lab 34.6%, PC 25.8%, i 22.2%, Con 11.3%, LD 6.1%
Islwyn: Lab 37.7%, i 28.3%, PC 21.6%, Con 7.6%, LD 4.8%
Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney: Lab 37.0%, LD 15.2%, i 12.5%, PC 12.0%, i 9.1%, Con 5.5%, i 4.0%, 3.8%, 0.8%
Monmouth: Con 52.0%, Lab 23.4%, LD 14.7%, PC 7.1%, ED 2.7%
Newport E: Lab 32.1%, LD 27.7%, Con 22.7%, PC 8.5%, i 6.8%, ED 2.2%
Newport W: Lab 40.5%, Con 34.6%, LD 11.9%, PC 10.4%, ED 2.7%
Torfaen: Lab 42.7%, Con 19.5%, PV 14.4%, PC 11.9%, LD 11.4%

Wow. PC over 5%, in either vote, in Monmouth.

[Harry Hayfield]

I've managed to get the regional votes by constituency and noted this about the Lib Dem regional list vote:

Delyn   46.65%
Montgomeryshire   58.72%
Brecon and Radnorshire   60.07%
Pontypridd   61.79%
Dwyfor, Meirionnydd   63.02%
Rhondda   66.90%
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr   71.00%
Preseli, Pembrokeshire   71.46%
Ceredigion   71.52%
Cardiff Central   72.25%
Vale of Clwyd   73.93%
Arfon   74.02%
Cardiff West   74.76%
Aberconwy   77.01%
Monmouth   77.01%
Neath   77.54%
Ynys Môn   79.28%
Cardiff South and Penarth   80.11%
Vale of Glamorgan   81.85%
Newport East   82.01%
Swansea West   83.59%
Ogmore   85.40%
Gower   89.67%
Newport West   89.80%
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire   90.70%
Llanelli   91.34%
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney   92.21%
Clwyd South   92.60%
Caerphilly   94.90%
Clwyd West   96.54%
Torfaen   96.84%
Swansea East   97.22%
Cardiff North   100.44%
Bridgend   100.64%
Alyn and Deeside   107.03%
Wrexham   107.34%
Aberavon   122.41%
Cynon Valley   123.20%
Islwyn   130.57%
Blaenau Gwent   143.08%

The % figure refers to the retained vote compared with the constituency (and explains why we can't win a regional list seat in Mid and West Wales)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've managed to get the regional votes by constituency

Could you post the South Wales Central and North Wales figures here please

Maps will be made. Promise!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And thanks for sending them

As a first map, the "winning" party for each constituency, with a very crude 50/40/30/20 % winner setup:



Proper maps soon

[afleitch]

^^^^^^

Ouch

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Results for six seatless parties:



All sorts of odd little patterns there.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Who the bleeding Hell are the SLP, WCP, CPB and why are they so crap? And who is that in your signature Al?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Who the bleeding Hell are the SLP,

Socialist Labour Party (ie; followers of Arthur Scargill).

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Welsh Christian Party (an extreme fundamentalist group best known for claiming that the Welsh flag is a symbol of the Devil).

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Communist Party of Britain (a group that broke away from the CPGB at some point because the latter wasn't Stalinist enough).

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See above

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Jim Griffiths

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And now for the parties with seats:

[Harry Hayfield]

And now for the parties with seats:

And there in a nutshell is why it is impossible for us to win a regional list seat in Mid and West Wales. I mean, just look at the lack of Lib Dem regional votes outside Montgomeryshire, Brecon and Radnorshire and Ceredigion.

[Јas]

Regarding the major-minor parties (UKIP; BNP; Greens), how would you rate their electoral performace this time? Have their been significant improvements?; In the medium to long run are seat gains likely?

Also, why are the BNP so (relatively) strong in the North East?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Regarding the major-minor parties (UKIP; BNP; Greens), how would you rate their electoral performace this time? Have their been significant improvements?; In the medium to long run are seat gains likely?

Generally they did pretty well (though a lot of that is due to the pisspoor turnout). The BNP numbers shocked a lot of people.
As for seats; the electoral system maketh things very confused and complicated. The BNP were fairly close to a North Wales list seat IIRC.

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Backlash against Polish immigration, and (probably) one against devolution as well.