(UPDATE: Second Arizona Poll included) New Arizona Poll

[lonestar]

This poll was done by Survey USA from 7/12-7/14.

Among Likely Voters:

Bush/Cheney: 53%
Kerry/Edwards: 41%

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/AZ040715president.pdf

Some things in this poll look a little strange.  Example: Bush getting 40% of Black vote.  I don't have the registration numbers, but they seem Republican heavy.

The Hispanic vote is tied at 48% each, which isn't TOO unreasonable.  I think 40% of Hispanics would be a solid, and possible, number for Bush to get.

***UPDATE***
Another Poll from Behavior Research Center(?) shows the race as
Bush/Cheney: 48%
Kerry/Edwards: 36%

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2004/07/12/daily51.html

Both polls released today show Bush up 12 in Arizona....interesting

***END UPDATE***

[© tweed]

40% of blacks?!?!?!?!?!?!?

[lonestar]

40% of Black vote in this poll= 8 people

What is the percent black in Arizona??

[agcatter]

I don't trust any of the subsets in any of these polls.  The numbers are way too small to mean anything at all.

[© tweed]

What is the percent black in Arizona??

2.9%.

[lonestar]

ok, thanks.

[lonestar]

No comments from Vorlon on either of these polls?

[ATFFL]

That is now 3 polls in a row with a 12 point lead.  I think we can safely take AZ out of play for now.

[agcatter]

hey, where is Vorlon anyway.  It's been several days.

[MODU]

Vorlon needs a little mental R&R from staring at polls all day.  hehehe

[Gustaf]

Well, it looks like Arizona might be moving out of our reach then...I don't think it's quite as bad, no Mason Dixon polls around...

[CARLHAYDEN]

This poll was done by Survey USA from 7/12-7/14.

Among Likely Voters:

Bush/Cheney: 53%
Kerry/Edwards: 41%

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/AZ040715president.pdf

Some things in this poll look a little strange.  Example: Bush getting 40% of Black vote.  I don't have the registration numbers, but they seem Republican heavy.

The Hispanic vote is tied at 48% each, which isn't TOO unreasonable.  I think 40% of Hispanics would be a solid, and possible, number for Bush to get.

***UPDATE***
Another Poll from Behavior Research Center(?) shows the race as
Bush/Cheney: 48%
Kerry/Edwards: 36%

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2004/07/12/daily51.html

Both polls released today show Bush up 12 in Arizona....interesting

***END UPDATE***

For my money, BRC is the 'gold standard' of survey research.

In the past, their data has not been generally available until after the election.

[jacob_101]

Yeah only a few black respondants in the poll.....still 40%?  I don't think so.  A pretty large sample of Hispanics were polled however, so if it's right, AZ is Bush country.

[Posterity]

I read in today's paper that the state's unemployment rate is down.  Maybe that's a contributing factor to these poll numbers.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/0716jobless16.html

There was a graph in the paper (but unfortunately it's not available online) that showed the unemployment rate in Phoenix is at 4.0%.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

(Pics of Bush daughters)
"Two more reasons to vote BUSH in 2004."

You do realize that having W as President makes his daughters less accessible, right?

[MODU]

If it gets them on tv more, I'm all for it.  Still trying to catch them up at the GOP campaign office here in Northern VA.  No luck yet.  HOWEVER, if I do . . . the picture with me and the girls will replace my current ones.