Spanish elections and politics IV / European Parliament campaign, diplomatic crisis with Argentina

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Amnistia defeated by Junts. Conservative brains explode as they don't know who to attack.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Jesus F**king Christ

Catalan nationalism is a mental illness.

[Oryxslayer]

Jesus F**king Christ

Catalan nationalism is a mental illness.

My contempt for Junts is well documented on this board, but it was someone else who described them best in my opinion during government formation. They said something along the lines that Junts is analogous to Gaetz's ilk: they are both not interested in governing, for very different reasons. Instead they prefer when viable to sow division and chaos and crises among everyone else, cause that earns points back home with a negatively polarized electorate.

I said back then it would have been better for Sanchez's position to reject Junts (but not the ERC) and if he gets voted down go to a snap vote. He would have had principles to run on and the public after seeing the results seemed to want him rather than the PP/VOX duo. They would have likely given him a actually stable government in said hypothetical elections. But now the polling, while uncertain, is seemingly back in favor of the Right. Similarly, Junts could soon or even now be topping the ERC in Catalonia, data there is lacking.

Not sure where things go, but there are quite a few ways the government could fall in the coming months, if not very quickly, if certain people want it to. If it does, Sanchez is going to need to find a way to wiggle out of the Junts fiasco.

[Mike88]

The goal of Junts continues the same: stretch the rope to see how far it can hold and force the PSOE to concede more and more and more.

Nothing changed basically.

[Flyersfan232]

Jesus F**king Christ

Catalan nationalism is a mental illness.

My contempt for Junts is well documented on this board, but it was someone else who described them best in my opinion during government formation. They said something along the lines that Junts is analogous to Gaetz's ilk: they are both not interested in governing, for very different reasons. Instead they prefer when viable to sow division and chaos and crises among everyone else, cause that earns points back home with a negatively polarized electorate.

I said back then it would have been better for Sanchez's position to reject Junts (but not the ERC) and if he gets voted down go to a snap vote. He would have had principles to run on and the public after seeing the results seemed to want him rather than the PP/VOX duo. They would have likely given him a actually stable government in said hypothetical elections. But now the polling, while uncertain, is seemingly back in favor of the Right. Similarly, Junts could soon or even now be topping the ERC in Catalonia, data there is lacking.

Not sure where things go, but there are quite a few ways the government could fall in the coming months, if not very quickly, if certain people want it to. If it does, Sanchez is going to need to find a way to wiggle out of the Junts fiasco.

the problem for sanchez is that a out could end up with his party out of power

[Velasco]

PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo stated yesterday he's "open" to pardon Puigdemont and other separatist leaders,  providing they commit to "abide the law" and "submit to justice". According to PP sources pardons would be conditioned to "regret" and the commitment to reject unilateral paths to independence. After months of fierce opposition to the amnesty law and harsh rhetoric on deals with separatists, PP leadership says now it's neccessary "a reconciliation plan for Catalonia"

The PP and Junts held discrete meetings in August, in order to discuss the election of the Board of Congress . PP sources say pardons weren't on the table, even though they admit pardons could have been discussed ("under certain conditions") if Junts asked for them.

Likewise PP sources admit that, during the talks with Junts, they "studied in depth" the amnesty law with the party's legal services. According to the same PP sources, amnesty was rejected after 24 hours because it was deemed unconstitutional.

On thursday Puigdemont threatened to reveal the offers made to him, in order to vote the investiture of Feijóo, or prevent the re-election of Sánchez.

Despite public statements, PP sources deem difficult to prove certain actions of Catalan separatists amount to terrorism. A conservative judge called García Castellón is currently investigating alleged terrorist actions committed by the oro-independence movement,  namely the 'Tsunami Democratic' campaign.

On the other hand, the PP sponsored a motion in the European Parliament asking to investigate alleged links between the pro-independence movement and Putin's Russia. Puigdemont reacted angrily, saying that things would have been different if he had helped Feijóo. That's the reason why the Junts leader threatened with revelations.

 

[Velasco]

Some polls for next Sunday's Galician elections

40dB / El País

PP 45.2% 36-40 seats
BNG 30.0% 22-25 seats
PSOE 15.6% 10-13 seats
DO 0.9% 1 seat

Sumar 3.3%
Vox 2.5%
Podemos 0.8%

Strong BNG increase propelled by the popularity of candidate Ana Pontón

Sondaxe tracking poll / La Voz de Galicia

PP 45.8% 39 seats
BNG 29.1% 24 seats
PSOE 16.3% 12 seats

GESOP / Prensa Ibérica

PP 44.5% 38-39 seats
BNG 31.0% 24-26 seats
PSOE  15.5% 11-12 seats
DO 0.7% 0-1 seat

DYM / El Progreso

PP 46.7% 39-40 seats
BNG 31.0% 23-24 seats
PSOE 15.1% 11-12 seats
DO 0.6% 0-1 seat

[Mike88]

The surge of BNG is really "crushing" the PSOE. With one week to go, I wouldn't be surprised if PSOE ends up in single digits seats.

[Velasco]

Amusingly it has surfaced the PP held informal talks with ERC through a certain MP called Carlos Floriano, who asked Catalan nationalists to allow Feijóo's investiture. Madrid premier Ayuso says it was Floriano's personal initiative and that PP will never back pardon or amnesty, while the Galicia's acting premier claims it's a fabrication and Feijóo is silent.

In the news: "Spain’s PP leader shocks party by backing conditional pardon for Carles Puigdemont"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/12/spains-pp-leader-shocks-party-by-backing-conditional-pardon-for-carles-puigdemont

Members of Spain’s conservative party say they are “stupefied” after their party leader announced he was in favour of granting a conditional pardon to former Catalan president Carles Puigdemont for his role in the illegal independence push in 2017.

Under the leadership of Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the PP has consistently condemned Spain’s socialist prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, for offering an amnesty to Puigdemont and dozens of others involved in the independence movement in exchange for the votes of his party, Junts per Catalunya (Together for Catalonia).

Since the amnesty was announced, the PP, along with the far-right Vox party, has.  organised dozens of demonstrations, several of them violent, against the plan (...)

This affair surfaces just one week before elections in Galicia, a solid PP stronghold that could be in danger due to the BNG's unstoppable increase. In case Ana Pontón has enough support to oust the mediocre Alfonso Rueda after elections,  the position of Feijóo as PP leader will be consuderably weakened.

[Velasco]

Latest polls

Sondaxe / La Voz de Galicia

PP 45.8% 39 seats
BNG 29.2% 24 seats
PSOE 16.2% 12 seats

Sumar 3.5%
Vox 1.8%
DO 0.5%

CIS

PP 42.2% 34-38 seats
BNG 33.4% 24-31 seats
PSOE 18.1% 9-14 seatssumar
Sumar 2.8% 0-2 seats
Vox 2.4% 0-1 seat
DO 0.5% 0-1 seat

Podemos 0.2%

Take the CIS estimation with some grains of salt. However, the impression I get from polls that the BNG surge is important and that the PP majority is imperilled

My conservative bet for next Sunday's elections would be:

● The PP struggles to reach 45% of the popular vote and wins 36-38 seats

● The BNG gets more than 30% of the popular vote and wins 25-29 seats

● The PSOE gets around 15% of the pipular vote and wins 10-12 seats

● Sumar, Vox and Podemos fail to win seats

● Democracia Ourensana (DO) struggles to win a seat that could make the local right-wing populists decisive

[Flyersfan232]

if the left wins do fejioo resigns?

[Velasco]

if the left wins do fejioo resigns?

Feijóo is Galician, so the answer is "maybe or maybe not"

Journalist Casimiro García Abadillo revealed it was Feijóo himself the person who spoke about indults and amnesty in a meeting with 16 journalists. Some people speculate the reason to make such a shocking revelation contradictong PP's public stance was the message sent by Puigdemont, threatening to "tell everything" about the offers made to him by the PP leader. Whatever the reason, it is clear Feijóo is an incompetent campaigner. The PSOE is obviously happy with the blunders of the PP leadership,  even though the party is expected to get bad results on Sunday. These revelations alleviate pressure on the PSOE, that now can remark PP's hypocrisy every time it's attacked on the amnesty affair.

 The chances of BNG candidate Ana Pontón increase after a campaign focused on creating an illusion of change, with some late PP attacks trying to lonk her to Bildu and ETA. A text message sent to health workers by the regional government, telling them their wages will be raised, seems to reveal a certain despertation. We'll see tomorrow if the PP loses or retains Galicia

[Mike88]

"Everything for power, nothing against power". Indeed, Feijóo just humiliated himself with all these revelations, showing he's not that different from Sanchéz after all, however, not sure if the allegations are credible, are they?

I don't think he would resign in the scenario of a bad result in Galicia, but, what are the chances of "Ayuso's wing", if she even has it, of initiating a challenge to Feijóo's leadership?

[Velasco]

"Everything for power, nothing against power". Indeed, Feijóo just humiliated himself with all these revelations, showing he's not that different from Sanchéz after all, however, not sure if the allegations are credible, are they?

I don't think he would resign in the scenario of a bad result in Galicia, but, what are the chances of "Ayuso's wing", if she even has it, of initiating a challenge to Feijóo's leadership?

I think pardons and amnesty are legitimste instruments that can help to solve political conflicts. I too think that such measures must be well reasoned and it's reasonable to say they should be implemented under certain conditions. The problem is not that Feijóo told a group of journalists that it's necessary to find a path for reconciliation in Catalonia, that is precisely the reason invoked by the PSOE to change its previous stance on amnesty. The problem is that Feijóo has been campaigning fiercely against those measures, claiming Sánchez is a traitor ready to humiliate himself in exchange for power. These revelations obviously shock the PP base, which has been fed with such arguments and strongly believes Sánchez is the incarnation of evil.

Another big problem is that Feijóo was strongly tied to Vox and that made useless approaching Junts or the PNV, centre-right nationalist parties that are not far from a moderate version of the PP (not to mention ERC, thatcwas also approached by Feijóo, according to Marta Rovira). A gradual change of PP's stances and a re-approach to centre-right peripheral nationalists could have made sense after the Galician elections, never before.

Probably it'd be too early for Ayuso to challenge Feijóo,  in case Alfonso Rueda was defeated. However, that scenario would be extremely complicated for the current PP  leadership. I can't imagine how things would evolve

[Mike88]

First turnout update:

12:00pm:

2024: 17.12% (-2.30%)
2020: 19.42%
2016: 15.01%

Results from here: https://resultados2024.xunta.es/es/avances/0/0/30

[Mike88]

Second turnout update:

17:00pm:

2024: 49.17% (+6.20%)
2020: 42.97%
2016: 42.49%

[Logical]

Live broadcast

https://www.youtube.com/live/ouFOO5xFMqA

[Velasco]

Excellent turnout figure. If the trend continues and there's a significantturnout increase, the result could be tight

Public broadcaster will release the usual GAD3 tracking poll (inot an exit poll) at 20:00 CET (19:00 in the Canary Islands and Poetugal)

[Mike88]

TVE poll:

39-40 PP
25-26 BNG
  9-10 PSOE
    0-1 DO

45.9% PP
33.0% BNG
12.5% PSOE
  0.7% DO

[Mike88]

Other polls, not exit polls:

Sigma Dos:

38-40 PP
24-25 BNG
10-12 PSOE
    0-1 DO

Sondaxe:

39 PP
25 BNG
11 PSOE

[MRCVzla]

Tracking polls breakdown by province/constituency (in seats)
GAD3 (CRTVG/RTVE)
A Coruña: PP 13, BNG 9, PSdeG 3
Lugo: PP 8, BNG 4, PSdeG 2
Ourense: PP 8, BNG 4, PSdeG 1-2, DO 0-1
Pontevedra: PP 10-11, BNG 8-9, PSdeG 3

Sondaxe (La Voz de Galicia)
A Coruña: PP 13, BNG 9, PSdeG 3
Lugo: PP 8, BNG 4, PSdeG 2
Ourense: PP 8, BNG 4, PSdeG 2
Pontevedra: PP 10, BNG 8, PSdeG 4

SigmaDos (El Mundo)
A Coruña: PP 13-14, BNG 8, PSdeG 3-4
Lugo: PP 8, BNG 4, PSdeG 2
Ourense: PP 7-8, BNG 4-5, PSdeG 1-2, DO 0-1
Pontevedra: PP 10, BNG 8, PSdeG 4

Sumar very far to gain a seat (around low 2%), even surpassed by Vox (2-3%) in GAD3 and Sondaxe trackings.

[Logical]

PP has won another term in Galicia.

[MRCVzla]

Galician results at 99.93% processed (without abroad votes, counted later in the week)
PP 47.35% - 40 seats (-2)
BNG 31.58% - 25 seats (+6)
PSdeG-PSOE 14.04% - 9 seats (-5)
DO 1.03% - 1 seat (new)

VOX 2.19%
Sumar Galicia 1.90%
PACMA 0.36%
Podemos-AV 0.26%
Escanos en Branco 0.18%
ECG 0.10%
PUM+J 0.09%
Blank votes 0.86%

Turnout 67.3% (+18.3% respect to 2020)

By province/constituency
A Coruña: PP 13, BNG 9, PSdeG 3
Lugo: PP 8, BNG 4, PSdeG 2
Ourense: PP 8, BNG 4, PSdeG 1, DO 1
Pontevedra: PP 11, BNG 8, PSdeG 3

Last seat elected/next party and votes necessary to gain a seat
A Coruña: BNG < PSdeG (9511)
Lugo: BNG < PSdeG (2981)
Ourense: PP < PSdeG (112) (!)
Pontevedra: PP < PSdeG (6450)

Rueda retains PP' majority (5th in a row) despite lost 2 seats, Ponton' BNG consolidates as the left' alternative to PP thanks to the "utilty vote" who damages PSdeG and nullify Sumar/Podemos (big fail to Yolanda and her project, while Podemos now is seen officially as a joke party, ending behind the animalists), localist Democracia Ourensana of Ourense' mayor Jacome makes it, but not being the "kingmaker" as they hoped. Abroad/Absent residents votes by-mail may change by little or not the final composition of Galician Parliament (specially in that Ourense disputed last seat that could help PSdeG to not end in a single-digit seat number) but PP majority is safe anyway. Opinion polls this time not failed and ended being accurate (PP and their solid rural strongholds also helped).

[Mike88]

Yep, easy win for the PP. PSOE, well, what a disaster.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Congratulations to the Galician branch of Podemos, what an absolute joke. Fóra!

I wonder, is there any speculation about Rueda possibly leading the PP in the (distant) future? I don't know much of anything about him, but as we all know the list of historical presidents of the party has a Galician bias.