Spanish elections and politics IV / European Parliament campaign, diplomatic crisis with Argentina

[Mike88]

Election day in Catalonia.

Turnout at 1pm:

2024: 26.91% (+4.14%)
2021: 22.77%
2017: 34.69%
2015: 35.10%
2012: 29.43%
2010: 24.79%
2006: 25.49%
2003: 26.27%
1999: 24.21%
1995: 25.96%

Official results page: https://resultats.eleccionsparlament.cat/ca/inici

[Logical]

Turnout in Nationalist strongholds (Vic, Ripoll, Igualada etc) up by just 2-4% while urban Unionist municipalities (L'Hospitalet, Santa Coloma, Badalona etc) are up by 5-7%.

[Oryxslayer]

Election day in Catalonia.

Turnout at 1pm:

2024: 26.91% (+4.14%)
2021: 22.77%
2017: 34.69%
2015: 35.10%
2012: 29.43%
2010: 24.79%
2006: 25.49%
2003: 26.27%
1999: 24.21%
1996: 25.96%

Official results page: https://resultats.eleccionsparlament.cat/ca/inici

That all said, I wonder how much this is a sign of anything because of how wild any past comparisons are. 2021 was a partial-pandemic election, so it's noticably low, and that saw a surprising nationalist popular vote majority.  2017 was a hypercharged contest in reaction to the actions of both the local and national governments, so turnout was abnormally high. The most recent national election meanwhile saw nationalist abstention and low turnout comparatively.

[Mike88]

Turnout at 6pm:

2024: 45.79% (+0.18%)
2021: 45.61%
2017: 68.26%
2015: 63.12%
2012: 56.30%
2010: 48.39%
2006: 45.30%
2003: 51.17%
1999: 46.41%
1995: 51.59%

[Mike88]

Turnout, at 6pm, is up in Barcelona (+0.40%) and Tarragona (+1.29%). On the other hand, turnout is down in Girona (-1.16%) and Lleida (-2.58%).

In a related story, ERC and Junts are asking for an extention of voting hours after the robbery and vandalization of cables in railway lines that is causing the shutdown of services in Barcelona and preventing many people to arrive on time to vote. No decision has yet been made by the Central Electoral Junta.

[Mike88]

In a related story, ERC and Junts are asking for an extention of voting hours after the robbery and vandalization of cables in railway lines that is causing the shutdown of services in Barcelona and preventing many people to arrive on time to vote. No decision has yet been made by the Central Electoral Junta.

The Central Electoral Junta (JEC) has ruled that provincial electoral juntas have powers to extend voting hours, however, JEC points that the railway problems were already known at the early hours of the day, giving time to voters to find alternative transportion, and that, in general, voters live very close to their polling station.

[Logical]

Live broadcast : https://www.youtube.com/live/uZBfQb1ZhY4

[Mike88]

"Sondeo" RTVE:

37-40 PSC
33-36 Junts
24-27 ERC
  9-12 PP
10-11 Vox
    6-8 CUP
    6-7 Común
    1-3 Aliança

[Oryxslayer]

The interesting thing is that there's some uncertainty that that Nationalists will get the majority they usually receive thanks to how the D'Hondt seats are allocated. However, with Junts clearly in Second, and them not far behind the PSC, the nationalists failing to get a majority is the only way this is bad for Puigdemont. And if they fail cause the PP/VOX Right overperformed...well that's not exactly the best result for Sanchez is it.

[Mike88]

"Sondeo" GESOP:

37-40 PSC, 26%
30-33 Junts, 20%
21-24 ERC, 14,5%
11-13 Vox, 9%
10-13 PP, 8.5%
    7-9 Comúns, 6.5%
    7-9 CUP, 6%
    4-7 Aliança, 4.5%

"Sondeo" SocioMétrica:

39-41 PSC, 27.9%
33-36 Junts, 21.6%
22-24 ERC, 15.9%
11-13 PP, 8.9%
10-11 Vox, 7.6%
    5-7 Comúns, 5.9%
    4-6 CUP, 4.3%
    3-5 Aliança, 3.5%
       0 C's, 1.4%

[Logical]

Some results from a couple tiny municipalities have been reported.
https://www.eldiario.es/catalunya/resultados-elecciones-catalunya-municipios-2024_1_11350922.html

[Velasco]

Last polls confirm the PSC comes first, Junts is second, ERC comes third, PP and Vox are fighting for the fourth place and Aliança Catalana will be a parliamentary force. Polls are rather inconclusive on the possibility of a pro-independence majority and low turnout reveals weariness among Catalan voters.

Puigdemont promised to quit politics in case he's not elected premier, but I don't trust him very much. The best scenario for me would be a PSC-ERC-Comuns tripartite,  but ERC will demand steps towards a referendum on independence (it's up to see whether ERC would be happy with merely rhetoric concessions)

[Mike88]

1% counted, seats wise:

39 PSC
37 Junts
18 ERC
13 PP
12 Vox
  6 Aliança
  6 CUP
  4 Comúns

Very early still, but PSC near 40 seats with one percent counted is very, very good, right?

[Logical]

AC finished first in Les Llosses which is next door to Ripoll. I think they will shock everyone and win 5-6 seats tonight.

[Oryxslayer]

AC finished first in Les Llosses which is next door to Ripoll. I think they will shock everyone and win 5-6 seats tonight.

Taking a look around they are getting comparatively good results in the rural areas, which will help them get seats from Lleida and Girona in that regard, never mind the low percentage needed from Barcelona means they are probably getting at least 1 there. 

[Mike88]

11.02% counted:

43 PSC (+10)
32 Junts (nc)
19 ERC (-14)
14 PP (+11)
13 Vox (+1)
  6 Comúns (-2)
  5 CUP (-4)
  3 Aliança (new)
  0 C's (-6)

[jeron]

AC finished first in Les Llosses which is next door to Ripoll. I think they will shock everyone and win 5-6 seats tonight.

So far they do not. 2 seats from Girona and 1 from Lleida

[Logical]

AC finished first in Les Llosses which is next door to Ripoll. I think they will shock everyone and win 5-6 seats tonight.

So far they do not. 2 seats from Girona and 1 from Lleida

They're currently under the 3% threshold in Barcelona which locks them out of 2-3 seats.

[jeron]

AC finished first in Les Llosses which is next door to Ripoll. I think they will shock everyone and win 5-6 seats tonight.

So far they do not. 2 seats from Girona and 1 from Lleida

They're currently under the 3% threshold in Barcelona which locks them out of 2-3 seats.

Yes. They are  under 2% in the city itself so that will be a rather steel hill to climb

[Skye]

I know it's early but the incumbent government is performing rather... poorly.

[jeron]

I know it's early but the incumbent government is performing rather... poorly.

It's especially ERC and CUP doing poorly

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

48.07% counted:

42 PSC (+9)
34 Junts (+2)
20 ERC (-13)
14 PP (+11)
12 Vox (nc)
  6 Comuns (-2)
  4 CUP (-5)
  3 Aliança (new)
  0 Cs (-6)

[Oryxslayer]

I know it's early but the incumbent government is performing rather... poorly.

I mean depends how you measure the incumbent government. ERC is the one in power, but de Facto the PSC wasn't going to let the government fall unless the ERC wanted it to.

The ERC losing votes also isn't really down to them failing locally, at least not directly. Rather, as seen during the last national election, their vote is getting pulled at both ends. Those who dislike the ERC's timidity on forcing the identity question are heading to Junts, especially with Puigdemont back. More though like the ERC's approach to the Sanchez government, and don't want a return to violence. Which is sending them to the PSOE/PSC.

[Skye]

Aliança Catalana wins Ripoll with 33% of the vote.

[jeron]

Aliança Catalana wins Ripoll with 33% of the vote.

Yes, but in the rest of Girona Aliança is not doing that well and they are down to 1 seat