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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
Election Predictions
(Moderator:
muon2
)
2008 Presidential Predictions
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Latest 2008 Predictions
(Highest Scores)
User
Map
Prof
Date
Ver.
Pickup
Rep
Dem
Ind
#C
whoblitzell
(
I-JPN
)
11-04
87
D +112
174 (-112)
364 (
+112
)
0 (0)
16
EarlAW
(
D-ON
)
11-04
53
D +86
200 (-86)
338 (
+86
)
0 (0)
0
Political Lefty
(
D-CA
)
11-03
7
D +126
160 (-126)
378 (
+126
)
0 (0)
0
Ryne
(
I-WA
)
11-03
6
D +112
174 (-112)
364 (
+112
)
0 (0)
0
Jyrki
(
G-FRA
)
11-03
1
D +123
163 (-123)
375 (
+123
)
0 (0)
0
PoliticalJunkie
(
I-WI
)
11-03
20
D +112
174 (-112)
364 (
+112
)
0 (0)
0
Aguagon
(
D-AZ
)
11-03
13
D +101
185 (-101)
353 (
+101
)
0 (0)
0
Sheliak5
(
D-OH
)
11-03
54
D +127
159 (-127)
379 (
+127
)
0 (0)
2
FrenchEd
(
D-NJ
)
11-03
64
D +101
185 (-101)
353 (
+101
)
0 (0)
12
iammucow
(
G-NC
)
11-03
17
D +101
185 (-101)
353 (
+101
)
0 (0)
0
Latest 2008 Predictions
(Most Recent Entries)
User
Map
Prof
Date
Ver.
Pickup
Rep
Dem
Ind
#C
TX_1824
(
C-TX
)
11-04
12
D +13
273 (-13)
265 (
+13
)
0 (0)
7
Hyperfast
(
D-FL
)
11-04
16
D +123
163 (-123)
375 (
+123
)
0 (0)
0
AntonioV
(
D-CA
)
11-04
9
D +101
185 (-101)
353 (
+101
)
0 (0)
6
nyquil_man
(
D-AR
)
11-04
25
D +112
174 (-112)
364 (
+112
)
0 (0)
1
tyguy
(
R-GA
)
11-04
18
D +26
260 (-26)
278 (
+26
)
0 (0)
0
cmaff05
(
D-WV
)
11-04
1
D +92
194 (-92)
344 (
+92
)
0 (0)
0
eridniel
(
--MD
)
11-04
16
D +112
174 (-112)
364 (
+112
)
0 (0)
0
DasKaek
(
I-IN
)
11-04
15
D +101
185 (-101)
353 (
+101
)
0 (0)
2
CardinalWraith
(
D-CA
)
11-04
13
D +101
185 (-101)
353 (
+101
)
0 (0)
1
byelf2007
(
D-WA
)
11-04
40
D +97
189 (-97)
349 (
+97
)
0 (0)
0
Latest 2008 Predictions
(Most Recent Comments)
User
Map
Prof
Date
Ver.
Pickup
Rep
Dem
Ind
#C
bonncaruso
(
D-DEU
)
by FrenchEd on 2009-05-06 @ 08:41:48
11-04
75
D +123
163 (-123)
375 (
+123
)
0 (0)
103
CR
(
--MO
)
by faye3 on 2009-02-24 @ 15:33:40
11-03
44
R +4
290 (
+4
)
248 (-4)
0 (0)
164
tmthforu94
(
R-KS
)
by tmthforu94 on 2009-02-15 @ 19:16:25
11-03
67
D +9
277 (-9)
261 (
+9
)
0 (0)
8
FrenchEd
(
D-NJ
)
by FrenchEd on 2009-02-11 @ 05:28:59
11-03
64
D +101
185 (-101)
353 (
+101
)
0 (0)
12
AntonioV
(
D-CA
)
by AntonioV on 2009-01-03 @ 04:34:13
11-04
9
D +101
185 (-101)
353 (
+101
)
0 (0)
6
dnul222
(
D-MN
)
by dnul222 on 2008-12-24 @ 06:59:29
11-03
83
D +74
212 (-74)
326 (
+74
)
0 (0)
15
Chica_Of_Light
(
D-CA
)
by FrenchEd on 2008-12-22 @ 17:03:32
10-30
80
R +154
440 (
+154
)
98 (-154)
0 (0)
124
Sheliak5
(
D-OH
)
by FrenchEd on 2008-12-22 @ 16:54:47
11-03
54
D +127
159 (-127)
379 (
+127
)
0 (0)
2
whoblitzell
(
I-JPN
)
by FrenchEd on 2008-12-22 @ 16:48:57
11-04
87
D +112
174 (-112)
364 (
+112
)
0 (0)
16
wingindy
(
I-IN
)
by dnul222 on 2008-12-18 @ 19:30:18
11-03
22
D +123
163 (-123)
375 (
+123
)
0 (0)
48
Latest Discussion Topics
Author
Topic: 2008 Presidential Predictions (Read 51266 times)
Dave Leip
leip
Administrator
YaBB God
Posts: 3,280
2008 Presidential Predictions
«
on:
May 17, 2007, 08:47:53 pm »
With the early nature of the 2008 Presidential Contest, I've gone ahead and created the
2008 Presidential Predictions
section early as well. Try it out and write some words about your early prognostications - who do you expect to be the candidates of the major parties? - how will the states vote? - will there be a strong independent? Please let me know if you find any issues with the scripts.
Thanks and enjoy,
Dave
Logged
Alcon
Moderators
YaBB God
Posts: 30,930
Re: 2008 Presidential Predictions
«
Reply #1 on:
May 17, 2007, 09:20:15 pm »
Thanks Dave. Awesome as always!
Is someone going to start compiling a list of poll results, both Generic D vs. R and, say, Clinton v. Giuliani?
Logged
n/c
Dave Leip
leip
Administrator
YaBB God
Posts: 3,280
Re: 2008 Presidential Predictions
«
Reply #2 on:
May 17, 2007, 09:24:30 pm »
Glad you like it. My next atlas feature will be to add the 2008 polling script - I'll attempt to build a Primary version for D & R first followed by the general version.
Logged
Josh/Devilman88
josh4bush
YaBB God
Posts: 10,113
Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -1.74
Re: 2008 Presidential Predictions
«
Reply #3 on:
May 17, 2007, 09:43:10 pm »
Good work Dave, like Alcon, I too will start off with Clinton vs Giuliani.
Logged
Josh/Devilman88
josh4bush
YaBB God
Posts: 10,113
Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -1.74
Re: 2008 Presidential Predictions
«
Reply #4 on:
May 17, 2007, 09:47:20 pm »
Dave I have a question. Why is Ohio on the Republican's side when over half of the people put it on the Democrat's. How is it calculated to determine which party it goes to?
Logged
Alcon
Moderators
YaBB God
Posts: 30,930
Re: 2008 Presidential Predictions
«
Reply #5 on:
May 17, 2007, 09:50:54 pm »
Quote from: Tristan Cardinal Vallençant II on May 17, 2007, 09:47:20 pm
Dave I have a question. Why is Ohio on the Republican's side when over half of the people put it on the Democrat's. How is it calculated to determine which party it goes to?
Looks Dem to me.
Logged
n/c
Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018
BushOklahoma
YaBB God
Posts: 24,938
Re: 2008 Presidential Predictions
«
Reply #6 on:
May 17, 2007, 09:51:44 pm »
Quote from: Tristan Cardinal Vallençant II on May 17, 2007, 09:47:20 pm
Dave I have a question. Why is Ohio on the Republican's side when over half of the people put it on the Democrat's. How is it calculated to determine which party it goes to?
I think its based on 2004 results. I could be wrong, though.
Logged
Josh/Devilman88
josh4bush
YaBB God
Posts: 10,113
Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -1.74
Re: 2008 Presidential Predictions
«
Reply #7 on:
May 17, 2007, 09:53:27 pm »
Quote from: Alcon on May 17, 2007, 09:50:54 pm
Quote from: Tristan Cardinal Vallençant II on May 17, 2007, 09:47:20 pm
Dave I have a question. Why is Ohio on the Republican's side when over half of the people put it on the Democrat's. How is it calculated to determine which party it goes to?
Looks Dem to me.
It is showing me Rep for Ohio.
Logged
Alcon
Moderators
YaBB God
Posts: 30,930
Re: 2008 Presidential Predictions
«
Reply #8 on:
May 17, 2007, 09:56:05 pm »
Quote from: Tristan Cardinal Vallençant II on May 17, 2007, 09:53:27 pm
Quote from: Alcon on May 17, 2007, 09:50:54 pm
Quote from: Tristan Cardinal Vallençant II on May 17, 2007, 09:47:20 pm
Dave I have a question. Why is Ohio on the Republican's side when over half of the people put it on the Democrat's. How is it calculated to determine which party it goes to?
Looks Dem to me.
It is showing me Rep for Ohio.
Here?
http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2008/pred.php
Try refresh (F5)? Clear your cache?
Logged
n/c
Josh/Devilman88
josh4bush
YaBB God
Posts: 10,113
Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -1.74
Re: 2008 Presidential Predictions
«
Reply #9 on:
May 17, 2007, 09:59:56 pm »
Quote from: Alcon on May 17, 2007, 09:56:05 pm
Quote from: Tristan Cardinal Vallençant II on May 17, 2007, 09:53:27 pm
Quote from: Alcon on May 17, 2007, 09:50:54 pm
Quote from: Tristan Cardinal Vallençant II on May 17, 2007, 09:47:20 pm
Dave I have a question. Why is Ohio on the Republican's side when over half of the people put it on the Democrat's. How is it calculated to determine which party it goes to?
Looks Dem to me.
It is showing me Rep for Ohio.
Here?
http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2008/pred.php
Try refresh (F5)? Clear your cache?
Thanks thats better...
Logged
Padfoot
padfoot714
YaBB God
Posts: 4,437
Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: -6.96
Re: 2008 Presidential Predictions
«
Reply #10 on:
May 18, 2007, 02:44:57 am »
Quote from: Dave Leip on May 17, 2007, 09:24:30 pm
Glad you like it. My next atlas feature will be to add the 2008 polling script - I'll attempt to build a Primary version for D & R first followed by the general version.
Does that mean there will be a map of the current poll leaders for both D & R like the one on the wikipedia pages?
Logged
Hash
Hashemite
Moderators
YaBB God
Posts: 31,864
Re: 2008 Presidential Predictions
«
Reply #11 on:
May 18, 2007, 09:27:14 am »
Love it. Any way to include a clip of the predictions below our names?
Logged
"Hay reiteradas denuncias de que las grabaciones las hizo la agencia Británica MI 6 amigos de Juán Manuel Santos. Autoridades extranjeras en una treta en mi contra"
-Álvaro Uribe, 25 July 2018
Dave Leip
leip
Administrator
YaBB God
Posts: 3,280
Re: 2008 Presidential Predictions
«
Reply #12 on:
May 18, 2007, 12:07:44 pm »
Prediction icon is now below your name - furthest map to the left.
BTW, with the version control nature of the scripts, you can create different versions for different scenarios of candidates if you like (note: only one different version is saved per day to reduce spamming).
I'm also a bit surprised that the so many predictions to date show the Northeast (esp. CT, NH, ME, and NJ) to not be in play. Note though, I don't know whom most of the D&R candidates are predicted to be - I suggest that in the analysis section, at least add the names of the candidates for your prediction maps.
Enjoy,
Dave
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
Posts: 47,937
Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09
Re: 2008 Presidential Predictions
«
Reply #13 on:
May 18, 2007, 02:02:40 pm »
Question to Dave regarding the
2004
prediction page:
There were 1998 predictions made for OHIO, 1000 predicted a Bush victory and 998 a Kerry victory, yet OH is colored red.
Or did I just get something wrong here ?
http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php
Logged
Dave Leip
leip
Administrator
YaBB God
Posts: 3,280
Re: 2008 Presidential Predictions
«
Reply #14 on:
May 18, 2007, 02:27:26 pm »
Hi,
The maps are compiled from the "most recent entries" - from those predictions made in the last several weeks prior to the election. I'll have to check to find out how many that was - maybe I'll update the script so that the statistics show the most recent figures as well.
Thanks,
Dave
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
YaBB God
Posts: 29,182
Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
Re: 2008 Presidential Predictions
«
Reply #15 on:
May 19, 2007, 10:26:31 am »
Well, well...what can one say? Excellent job as usual, I agree that the prediction maps were needed now to keep up with the level of debate! Thank you very much Dave.
Logged
Quote from: The Pauper of the Surf and the Jester of Tortuga on July 14, 2011, 01:20:59 am
This place really has become a cesspool of degenerate whores...
Economic score: +0.9
Social score: -2.61
In MN for fantasy stuff, member of the most recently dissolved centrist party.
Andromeda
tmcusa2
YaBB God
Posts: 6,081
Re: 2008 Presidential Predictions
«
Reply #16 on:
May 22, 2007, 02:54:44 pm »
Of course, this could all be relatively unimportant if the electoral college is made obsolete before then, by the interstate contract movement.
Logged
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Mr. Morden
YaBB God
Posts: 38,454
Re: 2008 Presidential Predictions
«
Reply #17 on:
May 22, 2007, 03:02:45 pm »
Quote from: Andromeda Islands on May 22, 2007, 02:54:44 pm
Of course, this could all be relatively unimportant if the electoral college is made obsolete before then, by the interstate contract movement.
Fat chance of it happening in time for the 2008 election.
Logged
My magnum opus is now complete. Read the complete
"The Adventures of Hobo Orgy Guy & Blondie"
(now in paperback).
What is your opinion of this thread?
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Being a moderator is basically like one giant party. Except you're the one ruining the party and everyone hates you.
opebo
YaBB God
Posts: 47,089
Re: 2008 Presidential Predictions
«
Reply #18 on:
May 24, 2007, 05:44:18 am »
Is the the appropriate place to comment on the compiled 'median' prediction map? I just noticed Colorado flipped Democrat! Nevada can't be far behind. I also noticed Missouri went from Lean on the confidence factor to 'tossup'.
Logged
The essence of democracy at its purest is a lynch mob
True Federalist
Ernest
Moderators
YaBB God
Posts: 36,249
Re: 2008 Presidential Predictions
«
Reply #19 on:
June 05, 2007, 04:59:23 pm »
I've done the cache reload thing so that can't be the problem. Nevada has 59 Dem predictions, 58 Rep predictions and 1 Ind prediction, yet it's showing up as an R-40 Tossup, when I would expect it to be either a D-30 Tossup or a No result based on the raw numbers.
Logged
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He that possesses the word of Jesus, is truly able to bear his very silence. — Epistle to the Ephesians 3:21a
Quote from: MalaspinaGold on February 03, 2015, 09:59:48 pm
The one thing everyone can agree on is that the media is biased against them.
Dave Leip
leip
Administrator
YaBB God
Posts: 3,280
Re: 2008 Presidential Predictions
«
Reply #20 on:
June 08, 2007, 01:08:19 pm »
I've found a slight error in the median calculation algorithm (has to do with independents being added to the script). I believe I've fixed issue that sets the map winner incorrectly when the states are close and an independent candidate has more than 0 wins.
Logged
Harry Hayfield
YaBB God
Posts: 1,941
Political Matrix
E: -1.55, S: 0.00
Re: 2008 Presidential Predictions
«
Reply #21 on:
June 19, 2007, 09:02:26 am »
I would like to start making forecasts as well (but can't access it), could you link my forum account to the atlas please?
Logged
Dave Leip
leip
Administrator
YaBB God
Posts: 3,280
Re: 2008 Presidential Predictions
«
Reply #22 on:
June 19, 2007, 11:48:22 am »
Quote from: Harry Hayfield on June 19, 2007, 09:02:26 am
I would like to start making forecasts as well (but can't access it), could you link my forum account to the atlas please?
You are already linked (see the predictions for Senate below your avatar). What error do you receive when you try to create your prediction?
Logged
Harry Hayfield
YaBB God
Posts: 1,941
Political Matrix
E: -1.55, S: 0.00
Re: 2008 Presidential Predictions
«
Reply #23 on:
June 19, 2007, 05:17:26 pm »
I'd not put a space in my username!!!
Logged
bonncaruso
bonncnaruso
Sr. Member
Posts: 337
Political Matrix
E: -6.77, S: 0.43
Re: 2008 Presidential Predictions
«
Reply #24 on:
September 06, 2007, 03:28:12 pm »
Great forum, great idea.
It is, however, sad that certain posters decide to use the projections area to spread vile hate of the other side instead of using analysis and debate. I am certain this is not what the founding fathers intended nor is it of help to any kind of debate between human beings with brains in their heads. I was just confronted with a posting comparing Hillary Clinton to the NAZI era between 1933-1945 and find it incredibly stupid and hateful and vile, especially for jewish americans who contribute to this website.
Before a huge flame war over Hillary Clinton erupts, perhaps her detractors should really start looking at polls coming out of many places and more all the time, with her positives far HIGHER than her negatives. And a woman senator does not get this far without possessing great intelligence, perserverance and iron will, qualities befitting a president.
And for those who want to dis the GOPers, I submit to you that this crew of 9 candidates is the brightest and most talented that the GOP that I have ever seen throw their hats in the ring at the same time. The DEMS should not automatically assume that, just because a mighty wind is blowing against the GOP right now, that that mighty wind will still be there in November of 2008, especially if a GOP nominee arises who can capture the imagination of the american people.
And finally, in a year before an election year that has most obviously become an election year in and of itself, with the populace already being bombarded with ads and mail and the like, if we start to see consistent polls all the time, then the race may already be decided in March or April 2008. If not, then be prepared for everything, from a huge DEM or GOP landslide (a real blowout election) or once again, a nail-biter, but I doubt that the so-called "in-between solid win" will happen.
In the predictions area, we are asked to forget the standard accepted mode of blue-vs-red states, which is a good idea, as Clinton is already making inroads in the south where she was not expected to. But with Thompson suddenly in the GOP ring, this could all change once again.
So please, I ask of fellow posters to keep it clean and respectful.
Logged
"Give a man a fish, and you feed him for a day. Teach a man how to fish, and he feeds himself for the REST OF HIS LIFE."
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