🇨🇦 2024 Canadian by-elections

[Flyersfan232]

If the Liberals come in 3rd in the Durham by-election I wonder if that would put pressure on Trudeau to step down.

I don't think he would step aside and even if he did who would replace him?

There are a number of capable replacements. People always say this, but, for instance, the Democrats ultimately had no trouble finding Hakeem Jeffries to take over from Nancy Pelosi.

The obvious names are:
1.Chrystia Freeland
2.Anita Anand
3.Melanie Joly
4.Francois Phillippe Champaigne
5.Marc Miller
6.Sean Fraser
7.Seamus O'Regan
8.Dominic LeBlanc

No candidate is going to be perfect because no human is perfect. Nothing personal but this 'there's nobody to replace...' is one of the tired and lazy political cliches.

Chrystia Freeland
 would be a diaster

[mileslunn]

It would be a huge upset if Durham goes anything other than Conservative, but I think margins will be interesting.  If Conservatives get below 50%, maybe sign like in other by-elections that polls are overestimating support or that support is more fatigue with government but once party comes under greater scrutiny people swing away.  50-60% is probably about what would be expected while over 60% suggests Conservatives might even be doing better than polls but could also indicate bigger swing in rural areas (and yes riding is still more rural than suburban but a mix to some degree and exurban is probably the most accurate time for riding).  It does seem though Conservatives in last few elections dominated exurbs but struggled in suburbs.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

It would be a huge upset if Durham goes anything other than Conservative, but I think margins will be interesting.  If Conservatives get below 50%, maybe sign like in other by-elections that polls are overestimating support or that support is more fatigue with government but once party comes under greater scrutiny people swing away.  50-60% is probably about what would be expected while over 60% suggests Conservatives might even be doing better than polls but could also indicate bigger swing in rural areas (and yes riding is still more rural than suburban but a mix to some degree and exurban is probably the most accurate time for riding).  It does seem though Conservatives in last few elections dominated exurbs but struggled in suburbs.

Don't forget though that for an exurban/rural riding the NDP does somewhat better here than otherwise likely due to it being part of the Oshawa/Durham region.  That will probably hurt the Liberal vote.  The NDP came second here in both the 2011 election and in the 2012 by-election.

[adma]

It would be a huge upset if Durham goes anything other than Conservative, but I think margins will be interesting.  If Conservatives get below 50%, maybe sign like in other by-elections that polls are overestimating support or that support is more fatigue with government but once party comes under greater scrutiny people swing away.  50-60% is probably about what would be expected while over 60% suggests Conservatives might even be doing better than polls but could also indicate bigger swing in rural areas (and yes riding is still more rural than suburban but a mix to some degree and exurban is probably the most accurate time for riding).  It does seem though Conservatives in last few elections dominated exurbs but struggled in suburbs.

Don't forget though that for an exurban/rural riding the NDP does somewhat better here than otherwise likely due to it being part of the Oshawa/Durham region.  That will probably hurt the Liberal vote.  The NDP came second here in both the 2011 election and in the 2012 by-election.

Though both '11 and '12 carry an exceptionality because of the Orange Crush/Iggy implosion and their respective afterglow.  Plus, federal byelection dynamics *can* be more binary "sort-y" than general election dynamics; that is, on paper, the NDP might indeed be a sleeper factor, but in practice the Libs *could* emerge as a single-loaded "stop the Cons" force instead--sort of like in Oxford (where the previous general-election-led conventional wisdom was that of the NDP outright threatening the Libs' strategic anti-CPC advantage).  Granted, there was the thumb-on-the-scale factor of the previous CPC office-holder pretty much endorsing Oxford's Lib candidate--but Durham's got an inverse situation of an ex-Con running for the Libs and targeting the same "backroom boy" candidate dynamic.

Of course, the NDP *could* tokenly capitalize on posthumous Ed Broadbent afterglow in his political backyard; but that era's so far back now as to be of negligible import.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

It would be a huge upset if Durham goes anything other than Conservative, but I think margins will be interesting.  If Conservatives get below 50%, maybe sign like in other by-elections that polls are overestimating support or that support is more fatigue with government but once party comes under greater scrutiny people swing away.  50-60% is probably about what would be expected while over 60% suggests Conservatives might even be doing better than polls but could also indicate bigger swing in rural areas (and yes riding is still more rural than suburban but a mix to some degree and exurban is probably the most accurate time for riding).  It does seem though Conservatives in last few elections dominated exurbs but struggled in suburbs.

Don't forget though that for an exurban/rural riding the NDP does somewhat better here than otherwise likely due to it being part of the Oshawa/Durham region.  That will probably hurt the Liberal vote.  The NDP came second here in both the 2011 election and in the 2012 by-election.

Though both '11 and '12 carry an exceptionality because of the Orange Crush/Iggy implosion and their respective afterglow.  Plus, federal byelection dynamics *can* be more binary "sort-y" than general election dynamics; that is, on paper, the NDP might indeed be a sleeper factor, but in practice the Libs *could* emerge as a single-loaded "stop the Cons" force instead--sort of like in Oxford (where the previous general-election-led conventional wisdom was that of the NDP outright threatening the Libs' strategic anti-CPC advantage).  Granted, there was the thumb-on-the-scale factor of the previous CPC office-holder pretty much endorsing Oxford's Lib candidate--but Durham's got an inverse situation of an ex-Con running for the Libs and targeting the same "backroom boy" candidate dynamic.

Of course, the NDP *could* tokenly capitalize on posthumous Ed Broadbent afterglow in his political backyard; but that era's so far back now as to be of negligible import.

You could be right, but I doubt there will be a 'stop the Cons' vote/movement.

[Hatman 🍁]

Today's Conception Bay East-Bell Island by-election has been delayed until tomorrow due to a storm warning.

[Hatman 🍁]

2/51 polls reporting

Lib 208
PC 119
NDP 47
Ind (PC) 3

Would be a huge pickup for the Liberals if this holds true

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

4/51 polls

Churchill, Kim (New Democratic Party)   73
Harding, Darryl   4
Hutton, Fred (Liberal Party)   278
Neary, Tina (Progressive Conservative Party)   177

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

10/51 polls
Churchill, Kim (New Democratic Party)   152
Harding, Darryl   12
Hutton, Fred (Liberal Party)   526
Neary, Tina (Progressive Conservative Party)   378

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

15/51
Churchill, Kim (New Democratic Party) 181
Harding, Darryl 17
Hutton, Fred (Liberal Party) 638
Neary, Tina (Progressive Conservative Party) 519

A bit closer.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

20/51 polls

Churchill, Kim (New Democratic Party)   240
Harding, Darryl   26
Hutton, Fred (Liberal Party)   970
Neary, Tina (Progressive Conservative Party)   800

So much for it being closer.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

25/51 polls
Churchill, Kim (New Democratic Party)   332
Harding, Darryl   36
Hutton, Fred (Liberal Party)   1187
Neary, Tina (Progressive Conservative Party)   984

I've seen enough. Liberal gain.

[Hatman 🍁]

https://twitter.com/VOCMNEWS/status/1752486481451483601

I'm guessing these Tory polls are from Bell Island? If so, I agree this is over.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

35/51 polls
Churchill, Kim (New Democratic Party)   575
Harding, Darryl   48
Hutton, Fred (Liberal Party)   1822
Neary, Tina (Progressive Conservative Party)   1434

It's not even that close.

[Neo-Malthusian Misanthrope]

This Newfoundland result is surprising - is the incumbent provincial government really popular or something?

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

40/51 polls
Churchill, Kim (New Democratic Party)   660
Harding, Darryl   59
Hutton, Fred (Liberal Party)   2090
Neary, Tina (Progressive Conservative Party)   1622

[Hatman 🍁]

This Newfoundland result is surprising - is the incumbent provincial government really popular or something?

The Liberal candidate is a well known journalist

[Oryxslayer]

This Newfoundland result is surprising - is the incumbent provincial government really popular or something?

Apparently the Lib candidate is a local TV and Radio Newscaster...and well you don't need me to tell you how a familiar name and face from the TV can dramatically improve the fortunes of one party compared to the baseline in small constituencies.

[MaxQue]

This Newfoundland result is surprising - is the incumbent provincial government really popular or something?

Not really. They won the election by 9 last time and the last poll has they winning by 6.

[DL]

I think this is the first time Conception Bay has gone Liberal in a gazillion years! But there is a bit of tendency in Atlantic Canada for byelections to favour the government since there is still this old clientelist attitude that unless you elect someone from the government side your roads will never get paved.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

This Newfoundland result is surprising - is the incumbent provincial government really popular or something?

I don't know if the Liberal government is especially popular but from what I've read and have been told by a person in Newfoundland, they've hit upon a success in economic development which should mean at the very least that the province won't have a decline in population as had been expected.

Essentially, the government has decided to focus on what business professor Michael Porter coined 'clustering' about 40 years ago (referred to as 'network effects' in economics) and focus on tourism and especially the arts for economic development. The people behind this say they want to turn Newfoundland and Labrador into the leading arts hub in North America.

Newfoundland and Labrador already has a successful artistic community, but the province still has a great deal of what artists love - big buildings (or big spaces) with cheap rent.

How Canada’s Newfoundland And Labrador Builds An Amazing Creative Community
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonyounger/2022/04/17/how-canadas-newfoundland-and-labrador-builds-an-amazing-creative-community/?sh=1dfdc8a355e4

[MaxQue]

I think this is the first time Conception Bay has gone Liberal in a gazillion years! But there is a bit of tendency in Atlantic Canada for byelections to favour the government since there is still this old clientelist attitude that unless you elect someone from the government side your roads will never get paved.

VOCM claims to have the final results. Liberal 2603, PC 2152, NDP 846, Ind 70.

Last time it voted Liberal is 1999.

[Hatman 🍁]

This Newfoundland result is surprising - is the incumbent provincial government really popular or something?

I don't know if the Liberal government is especially popular but from what I've read and have been told by a person in Newfoundland, they've hit upon a success in economic development which should mean at the very least that the province won't have a decline in population as had been expected.

Essentially, the government has decided to focus on what business professor Michael Porter coined 'clustering' about 40 years ago (referred to as 'network effects' in economics) and focus on tourism and especially the arts for economic development. The people behind this say they want to turn Newfoundland and Labrador into the leading arts hub in North America.

Newfoundland and Labrador already has a successful artistic community, but the province still has a great deal of what artists love - big buildings (or big spaces) with cheap rent.

How Canada’s Newfoundland And Labrador Builds An Amazing Creative Community
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonyounger/2022/04/17/how-canadas-newfoundland-and-labrador-builds-an-amazing-creative-community/?sh=1dfdc8a355e4

An influx of artists might even help the NDP down the road!

[DL]

This Newfoundland result is surprising - is the incumbent provincial government really popular or something?

I don't know if the Liberal government is especially popular but from what I've read and have been told by a person in Newfoundland, they've hit upon a success in economic development which should mean at the very least that the province won't have a decline in population as had been expected.

Essentially, the government has decided to focus on what business professor Michael Porter coined 'clustering' about 40 years ago (referred to as 'network effects' in economics) and focus on tourism and especially the arts for economic development. The people behind this say they want to turn Newfoundland and Labrador into the leading arts hub in North America.

Newfoundland and Labrador already has a successful artistic community, but the province still has a great deal of what artists love - big buildings (or big spaces) with cheap rent.

How Canada’s Newfoundland And Labrador Builds An Amazing Creative Community
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonyounger/2022/04/17/how-canadas-newfoundland-and-labrador-builds-an-amazing-creative-community/?sh=1dfdc8a355e4

An influx of artists might even help the NDP down the road!

I think that's why the NDP tends to win a couple of inner city seats in St. John's

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

This Newfoundland result is surprising - is the incumbent provincial government really popular or something?

I don't know if the Liberal government is especially popular but from what I've read and have been told by a person in Newfoundland, they've hit upon a success in economic development which should mean at the very least that the province won't have a decline in population as had been expected.

Essentially, the government has decided to focus on what business professor Michael Porter coined 'clustering' about 40 years ago (referred to as 'network effects' in economics) and focus on tourism and especially the arts for economic development. The people behind this say they want to turn Newfoundland and Labrador into the leading arts hub in North America.

Newfoundland and Labrador already has a successful artistic community, but the province still has a great deal of what artists love - big buildings (or big spaces) with cheap rent.

How Canada’s Newfoundland And Labrador Builds An Amazing Creative Community
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonyounger/2022/04/17/how-canadas-newfoundland-and-labrador-builds-an-amazing-creative-community/?sh=1dfdc8a355e4

An influx of artists might even help the NDP down the road!

Maybe, but keep in mind if this were just artists it wouldn't be that much economic development. I'm guessing the numbers but I'd assume that for every artist there is something like 10 technicians.

On the one hand, there is the famous story of when Michael Moore won for best documentary at the Academy Awards with Fahrenheit 9/11 and referred to Iraq as a 'fictitious war' (meaning a war fought for fictitious reasons - and he happened to be correct - but there are a lot of silly conspiracy theories in his documentary as well) that all the actors  loudly cheered while all the technicians at the show either booed or were stone faced.

On the other hand though, I'm moving in a month to Maple Ridge. Maple Ridge has a fairly thriving arts community (kind of like a larger version of Gimli, Manitoba) ever since Sylvester Stallone's Rambo was partially filmed there about 40 years ago. The NDP MLA there is Bob D'Eith who was the President of Music B.C (as well as an entertainment lawyer and a pianist.) The NDP nominee though federally in 2021 (who narrowly lost to the Conservatives) was Phil Klapwyk, the head of the IATSE Local - the technician union.