KY: Rasmussen: Beshear (D) way ahead of Fletcher (R)

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Kentucky Governor by Rasmussen on 2007-05-25

Summary: D: 51%, R: 35%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

I think on election day the result will be Beshear 55 - Fletcher 45 ...

[AndrewTX]

Fletcher will lose my more, atleast I hope.

[Padfoot]

8% are voting for "some other candidate"?  I highly doubt we'll see that on election day.

[Adlai Stevenson]

My prediction:

KENTUCKY GOVERNOR -
Beshear (D) 60%
Fletcher (R) 38%


I just can't see Fletcher getting above 40% of the vote.  He may be lucky to get above 35% of it if he takes more of a tanking over the summer, and in a general election campaign, his approvals will only go down as Beshear takes aim at him. 

[Alcon]

I just know this race is going to piss me off by polling at like 59% and screwing over my prediction.

[Sam Spade]

What is likely going on here is actually quite simple.  The Northup voters (and maybe some of the Dems too) are on the sidelines, waiting to decide finally.  Both of these groups likely lean towards Beshear at this time, for reasons that should be clear.  SUSA, which pushes leaners like crazy, registers this fact.

I suspect the end result will be somewhere between 55-45 and 60-40 Beshear, as some Republicans return home, but it would probably take some screw-ups by Beshear to make this closer or screw-ups by Fletcher to make it a greater defeat.

[Alcon]

I suspect the end result will be somewhere between 55-45 and 60-40 Beshear, as some Republicans return home, but it would probably take some screw-ups by Beshear to make this closer or screw-ups by Fletcher to make it a greater defeat.

Which do you see as likelier?  I don't know anything of Beshear.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm going to make a county map prediction for this soon (subject to change obviously)