Sam Spade
SamSpade
Atlas Star
Posts: 27,547
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« on: May 30, 2007, 09:59:06 PM » |
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What is likely going on here is actually quite simple. The Northup voters (and maybe some of the Dems too) are on the sidelines, waiting to decide finally. Both of these groups likely lean towards Beshear at this time, for reasons that should be clear. SUSA, which pushes leaners like crazy, registers this fact.
I suspect the end result will be somewhere between 55-45 and 60-40 Beshear, as some Republicans return home, but it would probably take some screw-ups by Beshear to make this closer or screw-ups by Fletcher to make it a greater defeat.
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