Are the Democrats certain to tighten their hold on the Senate in 08?

[Aizen]

Guys, Udall vs Schaffer is really going to be a tossup.  As of now Udall probably is the favorite but once Schaffer starts hammering on Udall for being a Boulder liberal, it will be a tossup. I personally like Udall and I'll be doing what I can to support him but the race is up in the air.

[opebo]

These will go Democrat:  CO, NH, MN.   

OR could go either way.  North Carolina is possible but leans to the bad side.

LA will stay with Landrieu. 

So, the Democrats will gain 3-5 seats.  Nice.

[Rawlings]

These will go Democrat:  CO, NH, MN.   

OR could go either way.  North Carolina is possible but leans to the bad side.

LA will stay with Landrieu. 

So, the Democrats will gain 3-5 seats.  Nice.

I find your wild-eyed optimism inspiring.

[Adlai Stevenson]

These will go Democrat:  CO, NH, MN.   

OR could go either way.  North Carolina is possible but leans to the bad side.

LA will stay with Landrieu. 

So, the Democrats will gain 3-5 seats.  Nice.

I find your wild-eyed optimism inspiring.

I don't find yours inspiring - I think it's pathetically out of touch with reality.
Anyway.

I believe Colorado, New Hampshire, Minnesota and Oregon are the Democrats' best opportunities for making gains in the Senate - in that order.

In New Hampshire, Sununu is clearly out of touch with the electorate as his votes on the Iraq War and Stem Cell Research have demonstrated.  I now don't expect Jeanne Shaheen to run - but I still think the two Democratic candidates Steve Marchand and Katrina Swett are capable of defeating him.  New Hampshire has caught up with the rest of the North East and the political earthquake that took place there in 2006 indicates a seismic shift.  Although neither Marchand or Swett are well-known and there has been no polling so far, its a small enough state for them to catch up in 2008.  In the end I think Marchand will win the Primary and end up beating Sununu by around 52%-47%.

Given that Coleman won due to the climate of 2002 and the debacle of Paul Wellstone's funeral I maintain that he is clearly vulnerable.  Minnesota is a Democratic state that in 2004 and 2006 demonstrated it is getting more Democratic.  Fine, Pawlenty was re-elected but narrowly and with under 50% of the vote, and the Democrats enjoyed many successes.  Coleman is an opportunist running in a Presidential year; admittedly, neither Franken or Ciresi are the best candidates (which is a question on its own) and I do wonder and worry about Franken - but I am hopeful that Ciresi will ultimately prevail.  Once there is an established Democratic candidate with the DFL machine and the dynamics of the Presidential race, Coleman is beatable. 

Oregon has been disappointing of late and its another question of why decent candidates have not emerged in a thoroughly winnable race.  Like Sununu and Coleman, Smith is a Republican incumbent in a Kerry state in a Presidential year that favours the Democrats.  I think Oregon will be close and tough right up until the end but with the right candidate Smith should be defeated. 

[SPC]

Guys, Udall vs Schaffer is really going to be a tossup.  As of now Udall probably is the favorite but once Schaffer starts hammering on Udall for being a Boulder liberal, it will be a tossup.

I concur.

[Mr.Phips]

These will go Democrat:  CO, NH, MN.   

OR could go either way.  North Carolina is possible but leans to the bad side.

LA will stay with Landrieu. 

So, the Democrats will gain 3-5 seats.  Nice.

I think the Dems pick up two:  CO and NH.

[Joe Biden 2020]

These will go Democrat:  CO, NH, MN.   

OR could go either way.  North Carolina is possible but leans to the bad side.

LA will stay with Landrieu. 

So, the Democrats will gain 3-5 seats.  Nice.

I think the Dems pick up two:  CO and NH.

I say the Democrats pick up a net gain of 2, pick up OK, CO, NH, and lose LA.

[SPC]

These will go Democrat:  CO, NH, MN.

How coudl you possibly think that either Franken or Ciresi could possibly beat Coleman?

[Verily]

These will go Democrat:  CO, NH, MN.

How coudl you possibly think that either Franken or Ciresi could possibly beat Coleman?

Ciresi is at least 50-50 with Coleman. He's experienced and noncontroversial, a good speaker, well-liked for his crusade against Big Tobacco, and not too liberal. Coleman, on the other hand, is ill-liked, too conservative for Minnesota and was elected in a fluke. Ciresi isn't very well-known, but campaigns change that.

[Rawlings]

These will go Democrat:  CO, NH, MN.

How coudl you possibly think that either Franken or Ciresi could possibly beat Coleman?

I'll tell you how: breathless, heady hope.  Ciresi would obviously come closer than Big Al, but Coleman is pretty safe.  So is Colorado.  I wouldn't even be surprised to see Oregon and NH stay red.

When you're on top you really do think that you can do just about anything.  That's why Bush was campaigning in Michigan, Hawaii, and New Jersey in 2004.  They were deluded into believing that Bush County was swelling so quickly that even those three blue states could hop aboard the Big Red Bandwagon.

Well, fortunes have shifted and now it's the Democrats deluding themselves into thinking that red states like Colorado are vulnerable.  I find it amusing.  Election Night, the Democrats won't.

[SPC]

These will go Democrat:  CO, NH, MN.

How coudl you possibly think that either Franken or Ciresi could possibly beat Coleman?

I'll tell you how: breathless, heady hope.  Ciresi would obviously come closer than Big Al, but Coleman is pretty safe.  So is Colorado.  I wouldn't even be surprised to see Oregon and NH stay red.

Colorado is anything but safe for the GOP. I will concede that Udall isn't a shoo-in, but it is a definite tossup.

[Padfoot]

These will go Democrat:  CO, NH, MN.

How coudl you possibly think that either Franken or Ciresi could possibly beat Coleman?

I'll tell you how: breathless, heady hope.  Ciresi would obviously come closer than Big Al, but Coleman is pretty safe.  So is Colorado.  I wouldn't even be surprised to see Oregon and NH stay red.

When you're on top you really do think that you can do just about anything.  That's why Bush was campaigning in Michigan, Hawaii, and New Jersey in 2004.  They were deluded into believing that Bush County was swelling so quickly that even those three blue states could hop aboard the Big Red Bandwagon.

Well, fortunes have shifted and now it's the Democrats deluding themselves into thinking that red states like Colorado are vulnerable.  I find it amusing.  Election Night, the Democrats won't.

Rawlings, the fact that you can't even admit the Colorado race is competitive completely discredits your statements.  At this point the Democrats are still riding a relative wave of popularity as compared to the GOP which is in shambles and is continuing to flounder.  Things can obviously change in a short period of time as demonstrated by the 2006 election, but to say that Democrats have anything less than an advantage in Colorado, New Hampshire and Minnesota demonstrates a complete disregard for the current political climate.  Oregon would be on that list too if the Democratic recruiting efforts weren't doing so poorly there.

[Aizen]

Gordon Smith might surive because he has been recently voting with the Democrats on the war.

[Tender Branson]

NH and CO are most likely to go Dem. Then OR and MN. But I don´t expect much movement in next years Senate and Governors races. Maybe a pickup of 2 in both categories.

[Smash255]

Gordon Smith might surive because he has been recently voting with the Democrats on the war.

Possibly, but it could be too little too late.  He could receive the Lincoln Chafee treatment.  Granted Oregon isn't nearly as Democratic as Rhode Island is, but Chafee was also much more liberal than Smith his.  Smith his helped by a few tough possible challengers deciding against a run.  However, he is still in a bit of trouble.  He will get the votes in most of the state.  However, metro Portland a Democratic area which he has done well in the past with the exception of Multnomah County where Portland is located, and even there he was done better than any Republicans have.  This is an area which may turn on him simply because of that R next to his name much like what happened to Chafee in Rhode Island last year.  Doesn't have to win the area (nor should he expect to) but he needs to be at least somewhat competitive there because of the sheer vote size (about 1/3 of the electorate are in Multnomah or Washington counties

[opebo]

These will go Democrat:  CO, NH, MN.

How coudl you possibly think that either Franken or Ciresi could possibly beat Coleman?

Because, obviously, the state in question is Minnesota, and a majority of Minnesotans would much prefer to be represented by a liberal in the Senate.  They're sick of Bush/Coleman, and any Democrat should have a fairly easy time there - reminiscent of Whitehouse or Sherrod Brown.

How could you possibly not realize that Coleman being elected in the first place was a bizarre, atypical fluke?

[Kevin]

Gordon Smith might surive because he has been recently voting with the Democrats on the war.

There is indeed a strong chance that Senator Smith will get the Chafee treatment in November of 2008.

[SPC]

These will go Democrat:  CO, NH, MN.

How coudl you possibly think that either Franken or Ciresi could possibly beat Coleman?

Because, obviously, the state in question is Minnesota, and a majority of Minnesotans would much prefer to be represented by a liberal in the Senate.  They're sick of Bush/Coleman, and any Democrat should have a fairly easy time there - reminiscent of Whitehouse or Sherrod Brown.

How could you possibly not realize that Coleman being elected in the first place was a bizarre, atypical fluke?

How nuch would you be willing to bet that Coleman survives 08 by more than 3%?

[opebo]

These will go Democrat:  CO, NH, MN.

How coudl you possibly think that either Franken or Ciresi could possibly beat Coleman?

Because, obviously, the state in question is Minnesota, and a majority of Minnesotans would much prefer to be represented by a liberal in the Senate.  They're sick of Bush/Coleman, and any Democrat should have a fairly easy time there - reminiscent of Whitehouse or Sherrod Brown.

How could you possibly not realize that Coleman being elected in the first place was a bizarre, atypical fluke?

How nuch would you be willing to bet that Coleman survives 08 by more than 3%?

I wouldn't bet anything on something like that.

[SPC]

These will go Democrat:  CO, NH, MN.

How coudl you possibly think that either Franken or Ciresi could possibly beat Coleman?

Because, obviously, the state in question is Minnesota, and a majority of Minnesotans would much prefer to be represented by a liberal in the Senate.  They're sick of Bush/Coleman, and any Democrat should have a fairly easy time there - reminiscent of Whitehouse or Sherrod Brown.

How could you possibly not realize that Coleman being elected in the first place was a bizarre, atypical fluke?

How nuch would you be willing to bet that Coleman survives 08 by more than 3%?

I wouldn't bet anything on something like that.

I meant that you would bet against it and I would bet in favor of it.

[Galactic Overlord]

These will go Democrat:  CO, NH, MN.

How coudl you possibly think that either Franken or Ciresi could possibly beat Coleman?

Because, obviously, the state in question is Minnesota, and a majority of Minnesotans would much prefer to be represented by a liberal in the Senate.  They're sick of Bush/Coleman, and any Democrat should have a fairly easy time there - reminiscent of Whitehouse or Sherrod Brown.

How could you possibly not realize that Coleman being elected in the first place was a bizarre, atypical fluke?

Why in the world would it be a fluke? Minnesota had no Democratic Senators at all from 1978-1990, and had at least one Republican Senator from 1978-2000. Furthermore, Coleman was in a competitive race with Wellstone before he died, so a Coleman victory would not have been a surprise.

[Joe Biden 2020]

These will go Democrat:  CO, NH, MN.

How coudl you possibly think that either Franken or Ciresi could possibly beat Coleman?

Because, obviously, the state in question is Minnesota, and a majority of Minnesotans would much prefer to be represented by a liberal in the Senate.  They're sick of Bush/Coleman, and any Democrat should have a fairly easy time there - reminiscent of Whitehouse or Sherrod Brown.

How could you possibly not realize that Coleman being elected in the first place was a bizarre, atypical fluke?

Why in the world would it be a fluke? Minnesota had no Democratic Senators at all from 1978-1990, and had at least one Republican Senator from 1978-2000. Furthermore, Coleman was in a competitive race with Wellstone before he died, so a Coleman victory would not have been a surprise.

I could see Coleman winning in Minnesota, and I could also see him losing.

[Padfoot]

How much would you be willing to bet that Coleman survives 08 by more than 3%?

I'd bet $100 against such an outcome.  If Coleman does manage to survive it will be by the skin of his teeth.  I would also bet $100 that Minnesota's result will look like Ohio's in 2006.  Sherrod Brown proved to everyone that it is easy for for a less than impressive Democrat to take out a Midwestern GOP Senator in the current climate.

[Jaggerjack]

These will go Democrat:  CO, NH, MN.

How coudl you possibly think that either Franken or Ciresi could possibly beat Coleman?

I'll tell you how: breathless, heady hope.  Ciresi would obviously come closer than Big Al, but Coleman is pretty safe.  So is Colorado.  I wouldn't even be surprised to see Oregon and NH stay red.

When you're on top you really do think that you can do just about anything.  That's why Bush was campaigning in Michigan, Hawaii, and New Jersey in 2004.  They were deluded into believing that Bush County was swelling so quickly that even those three blue states could hop aboard the Big Red Bandwagon.

Well, fortunes have shifted and now it's the Democrats deluding themselves into thinking that red states like Colorado are vulnerable.  I find it amusing.  Election Night, the Democrats won't.

Colorado is not the Republican stronghold it was just a few years ago. Just look at how everything has flipped in your state. Just three years ago the GOP had one-party control of Colorado's government, both senate seats, and a 5-2 majority of the congressional delegation. Now, the DEMOCRATS have one-party control of Colorado's government, split the senatorial delegation, and a 4-3 majority of the delegation. I mean hell, we all watched Colorado in 2006 to see if the 2004 gains were just a fluke or if they were permenant. Now we know.

[SPC]

How much would you be willing to bet that Coleman survives 08 by more than 3%?

I'd bet $100 against such an outcome.  If Coleman does manage to survive it will be by the skin of his teeth.  I would also bet $100 that Minnesota's result will look like Ohio's in 2006.  Sherrod Brown proved to everyone that it is easy for for a less than impressive Democrat to take out a Midwestern GOP Senator in the current climate.

Okay, (shakes hand).