CO: I know, I know, all of us in Colorado have suddenly morphed into bunch of granola-crunching hippies as of Midnight November 1st 2004.
That's Manitou Springs!
...Or is it? This state did still vote for Bush twice--NH, MN, OR did not. This state has a sizable GOP registration advantage--OR, NH, MN does not. This state voted for the Senate's most conservative member--Wayne Allard--twice--NH, OR, and MN did not. You can credibly argue that Udall and Schaffer will be in a dead heat...but to say that this is over? Come on! Udall is a Boulder liberal and Schaffer is a conservative. All things considered, in a red state why would you prima facie expect the liberal to win? That's just silly. I know it just sounds like a conservative Republican trying to flog his state's conservative legacy.
Colorado is like the pretty girl at the dance. She's gonna flirt with you and lead you on. She'll make you spend lots of money on her. She'll pull you heartstrings. But at the end of Election Night you know who she's goin' home with...and it's not you!
I've lived there for three years and it is one of the most bi-polar states politically (NH is right up there too). It all depends on how the central part of CO plays out. Colorado Springs will go to the GOP but Udall will win Boulder and Denver. Pueblo will probably go to Udall too thus the GOP will need to win outright in the central and western part of CO.
I actually think Udall is going to get a good run for his money. Right now, this is the biggest toss-up race in 2008.