Are the Democrats certain to tighten their hold on the Senate in 08?

[Joe Biden 2020]

As usual, people forget Mississippi, but if Cochran were to retire (good chance of that), Mike Moore would have a legitimate shot of picking up the open seat.

Has Cochran mentioned anything about his plans, yet?

[Joe Biden 2020]

I would give the Democrats a 95% chance of increasing their majority and maybe a 1% chance of losing the majority.

As I've said before, Oklahoma could be a dark-horse race for the Democrats.  We have the talent, and the Oklahoma Democratic Party is strong enough to put up a very viable candidate in 2008 against Jim Inhofe and in 2010 against Tom Coburn as well as retaining the Governor's Mansion.

I give Oklahoma a 35-45% chance of switching right now.

[Joe Biden 2020]

These will go Democrat:  CO, NH, MN.   

OR could go either way.  North Carolina is possible but leans to the bad side.

LA will stay with Landrieu. 

So, the Democrats will gain 3-5 seats.  Nice.

I think the Dems pick up two:  CO and NH.

I say the Democrats pick up a net gain of 2, pick up OK, CO, NH, and lose LA.

[Joe Biden 2020]

These will go Democrat:  CO, NH, MN.

How coudl you possibly think that either Franken or Ciresi could possibly beat Coleman?

Because, obviously, the state in question is Minnesota, and a majority of Minnesotans would much prefer to be represented by a liberal in the Senate.  They're sick of Bush/Coleman, and any Democrat should have a fairly easy time there - reminiscent of Whitehouse or Sherrod Brown.

How could you possibly not realize that Coleman being elected in the first place was a bizarre, atypical fluke?

Why in the world would it be a fluke? Minnesota had no Democratic Senators at all from 1978-1990, and had at least one Republican Senator from 1978-2000. Furthermore, Coleman was in a competitive race with Wellstone before he died, so a Coleman victory would not have been a surprise.

I could see Coleman winning in Minnesota, and I could also see him losing.