Are the Democrats certain to tighten their hold on the Senate in 08?

[SPC]

I woudn't say it's certain, but it's pretty likely:

Colorado-At this point, Udall is favored to win. However, I think it will be a tossup once the Schaffer campaign accuses him of being a Boulder liberal.

New Hampshire-This is probably a tossup. Democrats made huge gains here in 2006, but will they be able to continue that is 2008? Also, will Jeanne Shaheen run? If the answer to thos two questions are yes, then this is Lean Dem.

Maine-Definite Tossup. Two incredibly popular figures running against each other. Although polling would suggest that Collins is in for a landslide, I would sa this race is anything but safe for either candidate.

Minnesota-Overated. Fraken and Ciresi are bad candidates. Plus, Coleman is slightly popular. Does anybody remember the 2006 California gubernatorial election?

Oregon-This would have been more competitive had Defazio or Blumenhauer not dropped out. But, I suppose the remaining candidates could at least give Smith a run for his money.

Virginia-The possibility of John Warner retiring plus the possibility of Mark Warner running makes this anything but safe for the GOP. They better hope that Tom Davis is a good campaigner.

New Mexico-The only way Dems will get this seat is if the Attorneys "scandal" is still a big issue in 2008.

Nebraska-Dependant on whether or not Hagel will run. If he runs, Strong GOP. If he doesn't, Tossup.

North Carolina-Unlikely, but the Dems have a deep bench.

Louisiana-This should be a prime pick-up opportunity for the GOP, but they lack a good bench of candidates.

South Dakota-The GOP could get this seat if either Rounds runs or Johnson retires.

[SPC]

The idea that Hagel would not be safe if he ran is funny, but the idea that Nebraska would be a toss-up if he didn't is funnier still.  If only Nebraska thought as fondly of Scott Kleeb as the kids at DailyKos do!

Both Mike Fahey and Maes Exxon are considering running. They're pretty popular, so that is why it's a tossup.

[SPC]

Guys, Udall vs Schaffer is really going to be a tossup.  As of now Udall probably is the favorite but once Schaffer starts hammering on Udall for being a Boulder liberal, it will be a tossup.

I concur.

[SPC]

These will go Democrat:  CO, NH, MN.

How coudl you possibly think that either Franken or Ciresi could possibly beat Coleman?

[SPC]

These will go Democrat:  CO, NH, MN.

How coudl you possibly think that either Franken or Ciresi could possibly beat Coleman?

I'll tell you how: breathless, heady hope.  Ciresi would obviously come closer than Big Al, but Coleman is pretty safe.  So is Colorado.  I wouldn't even be surprised to see Oregon and NH stay red.

Colorado is anything but safe for the GOP. I will concede that Udall isn't a shoo-in, but it is a definite tossup.

[SPC]

These will go Democrat:  CO, NH, MN.

How coudl you possibly think that either Franken or Ciresi could possibly beat Coleman?

Because, obviously, the state in question is Minnesota, and a majority of Minnesotans would much prefer to be represented by a liberal in the Senate.  They're sick of Bush/Coleman, and any Democrat should have a fairly easy time there - reminiscent of Whitehouse or Sherrod Brown.

How could you possibly not realize that Coleman being elected in the first place was a bizarre, atypical fluke?

How nuch would you be willing to bet that Coleman survives 08 by more than 3%?

[SPC]

These will go Democrat:  CO, NH, MN.

How coudl you possibly think that either Franken or Ciresi could possibly beat Coleman?

Because, obviously, the state in question is Minnesota, and a majority of Minnesotans would much prefer to be represented by a liberal in the Senate.  They're sick of Bush/Coleman, and any Democrat should have a fairly easy time there - reminiscent of Whitehouse or Sherrod Brown.

How could you possibly not realize that Coleman being elected in the first place was a bizarre, atypical fluke?

How nuch would you be willing to bet that Coleman survives 08 by more than 3%?

I wouldn't bet anything on something like that.

I meant that you would bet against it and I would bet in favor of it.

[SPC]

How much would you be willing to bet that Coleman survives 08 by more than 3%?

I'd bet $100 against such an outcome.  If Coleman does manage to survive it will be by the skin of his teeth.  I would also bet $100 that Minnesota's result will look like Ohio's in 2006.  Sherrod Brown proved to everyone that it is easy for for a less than impressive Democrat to take out a Midwestern GOP Senator in the current climate.

Okay, (shakes hand).